The new Concord Monitor/Research 2000 poll out of New Hampshire (400 LVs, 12/10-12, MOE +/- 5%) confirms what we've seen in recent New Hampshire polls, that Barack Obama has pulled even with Hillary Clinton and even may have a slight statistically insignificant lead.
| Dec. | July | RCP 5-poll Ave. | |
| Obama | 32 | 25 | 29.2 |
| Clinton | 31 | 33 | 30.6 |
| Edwards | 18 | 15 | 15.2 |
| Richardson | 8 | 7 | 7.0 |
| Biden | 2 | 2 | 3.0 |
So much for that firewall.
This new two-way race between Clinton and Obama in New Hampshire does seem to be the result of an Oprah bump, as all the polls showing the two tied have been in the field during or since last weekend's Oprah-palooza. Obama wanted Oprah to help him with women and she seems to be doing just that as he now leads Clinton 34% to 32%. But the real story appears to be Democrats vs. undeclared independent voters, a key voting bloc in New Hampshire.
Of the likely Democratic primary voters surveyed for the Monitor poll, 37 percent aren't registered with a political party. When it came to those undeclared voters, Obama trounced his opponents: 40 percent of undeclared voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary backed Obama, compared with 23 percent for Clinton and 13 percent for former North Carolina senator John Edwards.Clinton, in contrast, won the support of more registered Democrats: 36 percent said they'd vote for Clinton, compared with 27 percent for Obama and 21 percent for Edwards.
It was always expected that independents would break for Obama whose above the partisan fray message was presumed to appeal to them. That finally appears to be happening. Interestingly, this is very bad news for McCain as independent voters can vote in either primary in New Hampshire (he is currently tied with Giuliani for 2nd place.) In 2000, independents voted overwhelmingly in the Republican primary sending John McCain to victory. Conventional wisdom was that if Obama was perceived not to be viable in New Hampshire come primary day that those voters would once again vote Republican, possibly sending McCain a much needed boost. Doesn't look like that's going to happen.
It should also be noted that Obama's rise looks to be coming almost entirely at Clinton's expense, as Edwards is on an upward track as well (18% is almost 3% above his recent average.) We always knew Edwards had the ability to close late in the race, we may be seeing the beginnings of that here.
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