Todd please stay on this site, you actually write informative not biased stuff and I enjoy your work.

Racially polarized vote, even in the Dem primary

"However, Obama's white vote has not moved. Clearly the Oprah Winfrey visit to the state moved African-American voters. "

While it's sad that this was even necessary...she gave them "permission" to NOT be afraid.

Todd, I don't think its about race.  It would be nice if celebrity endorsements moved voter preferences, but the purpose of them is to draw attention.  No one is going to vote for McCain because of Curt Shilling (at least no one with a brain), but he will draw media coverage.  Oprah did this magnificently and it permitted Obama to state his case.  

I hate that polls and pundits try to make everything about race.  Not one media outlet or pundit found it necessary to point out that Chuck Norris is white and he endorsed white Mike Huckabee, or that white female Albright endorsed white female Clinton.  That is why I so appreciate that Obama is running as a candidate for all the people and it actually pleases me that some blacks think he isn't black enough for them, because it means he's not too black for whites like me.

Ive said it before, and I'll say it again.  Obama couldn't win a general election.  His best shot would be if Tancredo got the nomination.  He wouldn't carry one southern state.  Parts of our country wouldn't vote for a woman, let alone an African- American candidate.   It's a sad fact.  Ask  Harold Ford Jr.

Obama's really setting up the opportunity to run the table here. A win in Iowa, with the New Hampshire primary so soon after, could give him a real advantage come South Carolina and the 2/5 states.

I wonder what the Clinton Camp is going to do to reverse this trend? I think she's going to have to do something to shake things up. And soon, too, as people are going to tune out over the Holidays.

"blacks will only rally more around Obama and cause her defeat."

Yeah, Clinton needs dem white folk that would never vote for a black man to come to her rescue.

Honestly, many, if not most of those Edwards supporters will probably not vote for Clinton--they might just stay home if Edwards looks unviable. Second choices are not so important in a non-caucus state.

If these Edwards supporters think he's toast, then they'll still have to be motivated enough to go out a vote for Clinton.

I don't see it happening.

Harold Ford Jr. lost because he ran a stupid DLC-styled campaign...

Funny how everyone, but him, won. That's why. When given a choice between a real Republican and a fake Republican, the people will choose the real one every time.

As for the Oprah effect, I think a lot of people are missing what value she brought to Obama's campaign. Attention. He was selling out 30,000 seat arenas, their speech was shown live on Iowa TV stations, CSPAN, CNN and FOX. Exerpts of their speech were published all over the internet, in newspapers across America and shown on late-night news broadcasts.

You can't buy that kind of publicity. It was all positive too.

This was a very good week for Obama, no matter how hard Hillaryland is trying to spin it.

the thing that frustrates obama's opponents both in the primary and the general is that he is so hard to attack.

he was anti-iraq war
he has no scandal
he is a great family man
he has not gone for the money
he has huge cred academically,intellectually
he has voted very progressive
he appeals to indys and mod repubs while voting more progressive of anyone
he is a nice guy
he is charismatic
he is a self-made man

If you were going to build the perfect democratic candidate.. obama would be close, if you are going to be objective.. not perfect but as close as you could get. There is no attack ad that can really take him on... even race is out with a kansas mom and patton led grandpa in WWII

The question is larger than the bump Obama's getting from Oprah.  Rich Harwood raises is the right question: "Now what, Oprah?".  http://www.theharwoodinstitute.org/ht/d/ Blogger/pid/185

Rich Miller predicted Black voters would break for Obama.

Oprah appearing in the Palmetto State may have affected the timing, but these voters were going to break for Obama if he remained viable.

Hillary is dropping anti-Obama leaflet in NH which probably means they are extremely worried about their position in the state.

If Obama wins Iowa , i'm 100% sure he win NH...That is if he can keep Hillary's lead witin single digit.

Obama doesnt have to lead in NH...All he needs to do is win Iowa and stay within striking distance.

Anyway , there's a new national washpo poll stating Hillary is up by 30 point...Its amazing how many polls would spit completly different numbers...CNN has Obama down by 10...NYT has him down by 16 and now washpo has Hillary up by 30...All those polls were taken during the same time span...

yea, the godess o will lead everyone to vote for the god o. "HE IS THE ONE." if you don't vote for him, you don't get a gelato machine and you don't go to the hollywood party. obama is thin and pretty. he will make everything better and make us all live in pease on earth.

This SV poll is very suspect. A few of the internals:

* The poll claims that over 46% of white voters are undecided, a huge jump from other polls conducted at roughly the same time. That's fairly unbelievable.

* The poll sampled less than 80 African-Americans, creating a huge margin of error among that group.

Further, let's bear in mind that the SV polls, whether in IA or SC, show results that are statistically significantly different from other polls conducted at the same time. Coupled with the fact that they come from a Republican pollster, one has to wonder if they are playing with their polling screens to create a sense of overwhelming momentum for Obama. The Republicans are salivating to run against him, but are much more reserved about their chances against Hillary.