MyDD :: KY-Gov Prediction: Beshear 59

KY-Gov Prediction: Beshear 59 - Fletcher 41

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 03:59:32 PM EST

As Todd noted, it's election day in Kentucky and the Republicans are up to their normal dirty tricks. But gauging by polling out of the states, it seems that these tricks may be for naught, with a new SurveyUSA poll putting Democrat Steve Beshear up 20 points over incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher and even the folks at Insider Advantage, who have consistently found Beshear's lead to be significantly lower than that of any other poll, estimating Beshear's margin of victory at 12 points based on numbers they have seen but apparently have not released.

	(R)	(D)
	Fletcher/ Rudolph	Beshear/ Mongiardo
SurveyUSA 11/2-4	39	59
Insider Advantage (prediction)	44	56
Rasmussen Reports 11/1	39	54
Bluegrass Poll 10/26-29	33	56
Research 2000 10/22-24	40	55
1-Month Average 10/10-11/4	38.7	56.8
7-Month Average 5/23-11/4	37.2	54.9

Earlier polls below the fold...

If I had to make a guess as to the results of this race, I'd probably say Beshear will win 59 percent to 41 percent. I'm not always so good at these things, though I did correctly predict Jim Bunning's 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent victory over Dan Mongiardo in the 2004 Kentucky Senate election, for whatever that's worth (notice, too, that my other predictions on election eve 2004 were more than a bit off...). How do you think this race will break?

	(R)	(D)
	Fletcher/ Rudolph	Beshear/ Mongiardo
SurveyUSA 10/27-29	36	60
SurveyUSA 10/19-21	38	58
SurveyUSA 10/10	40	56
Insider Advantage (.doc) 9/24-25	35	45
Bluegrass Poll 9/13-18	35	55
Research 2000 9/10-13	39	56
SurveyUSA 9/8-10	39	58
SurveyUSA 8/4-6	37	58
Lane Report 7/25-8/2	31	49
SurveyUSA 7/14-16	36	59
Insider Advantage 7/8-9	38	41
Rasmussen Reports 5/24-25	35	51
SurveyUSA 5/23-24	34	62

Tags: KY-Gov, Kentucky, Governor 2007 (all tags)

Permalink :: 3 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: KY-Gov Prediction: Beshear 59 - Fletcher 41 (none / 0)

Once Fletcher is defeated- Democratic Voters in KY will have momentum in unseating Mitch.

by nkpolitics on Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 04:16:41 PM EST

Re: KY-Gov Prediction: Beshear 59 - Fletcher 41 (none / 0)

Beshear 58-42

by conspiracy on Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 05:30:48 PM EST

Crit Luallen and the "bench" in KY (none / 0)

I haven't seen this mentioned here, but my impression of the Democratic "bench" in Kentucky (I grew up there -- moved away 6 years ago or so, so I'm not quite as up to date as I used to be) is that just as significant as electing a governor (and lt. gov.) this time, we have set ourselves up with a strong bench.

The '94 congressional elections and the aftermath of Gov. Patton's (D-Corrupt) adminstation left the Kentucky Democratic Party in a sad state. We had no statewide farm team to groom for higher office.

What a difference now! In addition to electing Steve Beshear governor, new Treasurer Jack Conway and reelected Auditor Crit Luallen will go on to run for higher office. And Lt. Gov.-Elect Dr. Dan Mongiardo (who lost the squeaker in '04 against US Sen. Bunning (R)) has has his political fortunes dramatically revived.

But the most significant of these may be Crit Luallen. To quote the Bluegrass Report (sorry for the lengthy quote -- please go check out BGR):

Senator Schumer spoke about next year's senate races to the 100 or so people attending. He talked most specifically about Kentucky and said that Crit Luallen - he mentioned her by name and the fact that she is now the state auditor - will soon be entering the race against McConnell (I think he said she has "pretty much decided to enter the race" or words to that effect). He noted the DSCC polling showed her trailing McConnell by only three points (46 to 43 - close to the recent public polling). Anything more certain being reported in Kentucky at the moment? Schumer made it sound like it was essentially a done deal, and he added that the DSCC was going to significantly back her.

Make no mistake -- tonight's election in Kentucky is a big deal for the future of the state.

by tilthouse on Wed Nov 07, 2007 at 12:54:23 AM EST

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