KY-Gov, KY-Sen: Republican Woes in the Bluegrass State

Rasmussen Reports has some new numbers up out of Kentucky (Governor numbers; Senate numbers). While they look similar to the polling conducted on the Governor race recently by Research 2000, the numbers on the Senate race look quite different, with state Auditor Crit Luallen trailing by 10 points rather than 5 points (though Greg Stumbo's 7-point deficit is close to his 9-point deficit in the earlier poll). Anyway, here are the numbers:

Senate Race

McConnell 48
Stumbo 41

McConnell 49
Luallen 39

Governor's Race

(R)(D)
Fletcher/
Rudolph
Beshear/
Mongiardo
Rasmussen Reports
11/1
3954
SurveyUSA
10/27-29
3660
Bluegrass Poll
10/26-29
3356
Research 2000
10/22-24
4055
SurveyUSA
10/19-21
3858
SurveyUSA
10/10
4056
1-Month Average
10/10-11/1
37.756.5
7-Month Average
5/23-11/1
36.654.6

Earlier polls below the fold...

Kentucky seems to be undergoing some real shifts. In 2003 Ernie Fletcher won election quite handily over Ben Chandler, who was viewed as a strong Democratic candidate, in what was expected to be a closer race. In 2004, however, even as George W. Bush upped his share of the state's vote from 2000, Kentucky hosted what turned out to be one of the closest Senate elections in the country as Republican Senator Jim Bunning won reelection by the skin of his teeth. Likewise in 2006 the Democrats won a closely fought campaign in the state's third district, knocking off a longtime Republican incumbent in what had been viewed as a swing portion of the state. Now polling indicates that Democrat Steve Beshear is likely to become the next Governor of Kentucky following tomorrow's election and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is not at all immune to a challenge next fall. No doubt Kentucky still has a reddish tint to it -- but it's certainly not a purely Republican state these days, either.

(R)(D)
Fletcher/
Rudolph
Beshear/
Mongiardo
Insider Advantage (.doc)
9/24-25
3545
Bluegrass Poll
9/13-18
3555
Research 2000
9/10-13
3956
SurveyUSA
9/8-10
3958
SurveyUSA
8/4-6
3758
Lane Report
7/25-8/2
3149
SurveyUSA
7/14-16
3659
Insider Advantage
7/8-9
3841
Rasmussen Reports
5/24-25
3551
SurveyUSA
5/23-24
3462


Display:


Re: KY-Gov, KY-Sen: Republican Woes (none / 0)

Anyone making bets?

I'm guessing Democrats smack with 57-59% to the Republicans 39-42%.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 03:24:41 PM EST

Re: KY-Gov, KY-Sen: Republican Woes (none / 0)

Beshear will win with 59.25% of the vote.


by C S Strowbridge on Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 03:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-Gov, KY-Sen: Republican Woes (2.00 / 1)

Whatever it is, I hope it is enough to carry the other Democratic statewide candidates.  When a Democratic governor was elected statewide, a Republican hasn't won statewide in the same election since around 1915 in Kentucky.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 03:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-Gov, KY-Sen: Republican Woes (none / 0)

Dems have a better chance of unseating McConnell than Susan Collins.


by Boilermaker on Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 12:05:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-Gov, KY-Sen: Republican Woes in the Bluegra (none / 0)

Beshear 63%, Fletcher 37%

Bloodbath

Look at the lovely illegal robocalls going out all over KY today- http://bluegrassroots.org/showDiary.do?d iaryId=501


by MediaCzech on Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 04:24:58 PM EST

I Hope Beshear Breaks 60% (none / 0)

I am using that as the benchmark on whether we have an even shot of taking out McConnell next year, and also think we can see it as something of a barometer on the national election next year. When dems win KY they almost certainly win the presidency (68 being the exception). A margin of that size would bode very well for the democratic nominee next year.


by Davidsfr on Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 10:07:43 PM EST


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