Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile

I'm intrigued by the Insider Advantage insta-polls taken after the debate by 1,035 registered Republicans in Iowa and 341 undecided Republicans in Florida who said they watched Wednesday night's debate (h/t Pollster.) Because of polling rules, the participants dialed into the poll, not vice versa (hence, caveats apply) but these results are about as unambiguous as they come.

Iowa:

Huckabee: 32%
Romney: 16%
Giuliani: 12%
McCain: 10%
Thompson: 7%
Paul: 6%
Tancredo: 2%
Hunter: 0%
Rest: undecided

Florida:

Huckabee: 44%
Giulani: 18%
Romney: 13%
McCain: 10%
Thompson: 5%
Paul: 4%
Hunter: 1%
Tancredo: 1%
Rest: undecided

For me, it was a no-brainer. In fact, during the debate I was inspired to call my Republican parents to see if they were watching (my Dad had previously expressed enthusiasm for Huckabee.) They weren't. I went on to tell my Mom that if I were a Republican (she laughed) and I was watching the debate, I just don't see how you vote for anyone but Huckabee. He answered questions directly with a combination of humor and emotional resonance that almost had me convinced he could sell a tax hike and free college for illegal immigrants to a wingnut. The reason everyone else on that stage should be scared of Huckabee is that any positive qualities each of them is known for, whether rightfully or not, he actually possesses. Romney's slickness, except without the fakery; Thompson's good ole Southern boy charm except without the need to call "line" during every answer; McCain's straight talk that actually is; and Giuliani's apparent conviction and refusal to pander.

Now don't get me wrong, I actually don't think on the merits that Huckabee is a mainstream candidate, but his powers of persuasion  seemed pretty powerful. The big question of course is did anyone watch? If they did, I'd be willing to bet Huckabee's chances of securing the nomination increased significantly. It didn't hurt that a particularly mushy-mouthed Romney might as well have just invited Huckabee to steal the nomination from him.

An even more intriguing aspect of this Insider Advantage poll, though, is what happened in the room when Huckabee was informed that he'd won the debate according to poll respondents. This is the description, caps are theirs (I'll spare you the bold face.)

NOTE: OUR CAMERAS CAPTURED AN ALTERCATION WHICH OCCURRED WITHIN FEET OF GOVERNOR HUCKABEE AND WHICH CAUSED SECURITY TO BE SUMMONED.  WE WILL BE POSTING AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AN UNEDITED VERSION OF OUR LIVE COVERAGE WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE ALTERCATION, AS WELL AS REACTION FROM GOVERNOR HUCKABEE UPON LEARNING OF THE RESULTS OF THE POLLS AS WELL AS AN INTERVIEW WITH HUCKABEE SUPPORTER CHUCK NORRIS.  WE WILL POST A CONSTANT CONTACT WHEN THE VIDEO IS AVAILABLE.

Very strange. If it's even half as intriguing in reality as it sounds, I'll follow up once the video is up. In the meantime, I think it's safe to say that exactly one guy on that stage had an exceptional night. The big question that remains: will it matter?

Update [2007-11-29 6:13:23 by Todd Beeton]: Oh and by the way, this may be the first and last time that 1,000 Iowa Republicans and the DailyKos community agree on something.



Display:


Re: Post-Debate Poll: Huckabee By A Mile (1.00 / 2)

I do agree Huckabee won the GOP debates hands down.

Not only that , but he also sounded the less angry and showed some compassion on the illegal immigration issue when he stated that kids of Illegal immigrants should not be punished because of their parents breaking of the law.

I've stated before that he's one republican that i wouldnt mind voting for , specially if Hillary is the democratic nominee.

I'm shocked that Romney directed all his bullets at Guilaii instead of Huckabee....He's making a huge mistake.

I think Guiliani is done...He will not win any early states....Recent polls have shown Huckabee gaining ground in FL , and Huclkabee could guaranty himself a win in S.C if he pulls off an upset in Iowa.

I just dont see where in the world Guiliani will make his big stance....He got killed tonight , but romney has got to be the big loser for spending all his bullets on the wrong guy instead of trying to kill Huckabee's momentum.

Right now , i believe this nomination will be between Huckabee and Romney.

Huckabee will win Iowa , Romney will win NH....Huckabee will then win S.C....With 2 win in his pocket , i believe huckabee will go on and win the nomination just like Bush did in 2000.


by Prodigy on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 06:26:31 AM EST

I didn't watch the debate (none / 0)

but if Huckabee gets the nomination and Democrats nominate Hillary, we are in a world of hurt.

He is so good and non-scary-sounding on tv, and he's got those inspiring personal stories.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 06:47:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I didn't watch the debate (none / 0)

I don't know that Huckabee would even carry Arkansas against Clinton.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 08:24:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why don't you get off Democratic boards? (1.00 / 2)

you make me sick and should be banned.  I am serious.  This is a DEMOCRATIC blog and your Nader ass-licking ass is going to vote to usher in a FAR RIGHT Supreme Court if Hillary is the nominee?

YOU are the problem in this country.  You are a bigger puke than the Republicans because at least they have an excuse.

You are NOT a Democrat or even a progressive if you'd vote for Huckabee.  It's morons like you who is going to drive me to leave this country.


The only balls the Clintons ever show are against their fellow Democrats, especially progressives.
by jgarcia on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:33:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Even if no one watched (none / 0)

The media is going to be saying for the next couple of days how well he did and how he's snowballing into the lead. If there's one thing America loves, it's a funny, likable, underfunded underdog who's taking out those slick politico types in a come from behind victory. The fates couldn't've written the media a better story.

Something that I'm finding is that a lot of Republicans across the country have always been impressed with Huckabee but were never willing to say they actually supported him because they always felt they had to go with one of the Big 3 or Big 4. Now that everyone is treating him as an incredibly viable candidate, all of these closet Huckabee supporters are coming out of the woodwork and he's taking off.

Will he be able to sustain the barrage of negative attacks about to be levied against him in the next three weeks before Christmas? Only time will tell, but it's going to be great to watch.


by meekermariner on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 06:50:26 AM EST

Obama and Huckabee (none / 0)

I wondered how great Obama could be if he had Huckabee's smooth debating rhetorical skills and how great huckabee could be if he could raise the kind of money Obama is raising.

If Obama learns how to use the sound bytes and get right to the point in a forceful manner , it could be unstoppable....Those upcoming debates are Obama's worst nightmare right now.


by Prodigy on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 07:08:49 AM EST

Re: Obama and Huckabee (none / 0)

I wonder if Huck's donations will start picking up?

Unfortunately for him, his supporters are the poorest group of Repubs.


by Bush Bites on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 08:47:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

Screw the post debate polls. Huckabee was already ahead according to Rasmussen..

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_2008__1/2008_pr esidential_election/iowa/republican_iowa _caucus

and look at the desparation of the Virginia GOP...

http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp ?art_id=12366


by Boilermaker on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 08:39:59 AM EST

Wow (none / 0)

Thanks for link. That Virginia GOP thing is absurd.


by Cleveland John on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 09:47:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Corporate conservatives hate Huck (none / 0)

I'm noticing corporate conservatives trying to throw ice on Huck pretty quickly.

Just saw Joe Scarborough do a kiss-up interview with Mitt and say afterward that Huck can't go anywhere even if he wins Iowa and it's between Rudy and Mitt.

I wish I could remember who I saw yesterday say pretty much the same thing, but it was another establishment conservative.

They don't like Huck's boomlet one bit.


by Bush Bites on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 08:42:45 AM EST

Re: Corporate conservatives hate Huck (none / 0)

That will be an interesting dynamic.  I've always thought that people underestimated the anti-corporate sentiment running among certain segments of Republican voters.  If it becomes a Clinton-Huckabee race, the corporate types may actually be on Clinton's side.  At this point my head will explode.  Fair warning.

Seriously, Huckabee scares me precisely because of the lukewarm responses he gets even on websites like MYDD.  Imagine what a real swing voter will think.


by the mollusk on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 10:14:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sidebar: How to Break The American Trance (none / 0)

By Doris "Granny D" Haddock
November 8, 2002
http://www.alternet.org/story/14506

If we Americans are split into two meaningful camps, it is not conservative versus liberal. The two camps are the politically awake and the hypnotized.

I want to begin by congratulating you for all the work you do. I know it is often frustrating work. You are blessed to be able to see ahead to a world of cooperation and peace -- a world of justice and sustainable economies and meaningful democracies. You wonder why others cannot or will not see these things or reach out for them, and why they in fact oppose the obvious good -- why they take the part of the oppressor, the blindered war horse.
I would like us to take a few moments to consider why this work is so hard, and what we might do to move toward our common dreams more rapidly and with greater joy.

Some of you may be old enough to remember the Reagan Administration. Mr. Reagan and those around him believed in a very new kind of American hero. This new hero was a business hero -- not the fellow who built up a family furniture store on Main Street and supported the Little League and the Scouts; this new hero was not the woman who worked late hours to create a successful travel agency, nor was this new business hero anything like any of the hard-working Americans who built-up our middle class, advanced our standard of living and gave us the resources and leisure for the proper civic life of a democracy.

No, the Reagan business hero was the corporate takeover artist. Any regulations that might get in the way of these ruthless new capitalists were removed.



by dearreader on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 09:26:45 AM EST

Granny D! (none / 0)

An American hero, "you're never too old to raise a little hell" is one of my very favorite books too.

Think about how much better we would have been if the DSCC had gotten behind her last minute 11th hour filing for New Hampshire Senate and we had her instead of Judd Gregg?

-C.


by neutron on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:14:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

"...this may be the first and last time that 1,000 Iowa Republicans and the DailyKos community agree on something."

That, and the fact that majority of them favor withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2008.


Tim Wolfe

John McCain is not pro-choice!

by bruorton on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 09:33:40 AM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (2.00 / 1)

I cannot understand how this Bible thumping, evolution denying preacher with his dim black eyes could appeal to anyone who is only half-sane. It really is a statement about how deep America has fallen that this sort of person is apparently moving into front-runner status. Disgusting.


by Almanax on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 09:36:39 AM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (2.00 / 2)

He is a religious economic populist. It is no surprise that he is doing quite well. I wouldn't be surprised if he won the nomination.


by Obama08 on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 09:46:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (2.00 / 1)

I think some people appreciate people for their honesty alone. I do. I appreciate people like Pat Buchanan for his honesty too. Having said that, I would NEVER vote for either of them. Giuliani and Romney came across as pandering and/or searching for the right thing to say -they lost.


by Cleveland John on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 09:53:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

It was funny to hear Roberts from CNN after the debate saying how Huckabee could be lucky to be Guiliani's nominee. I was laughing at him, because I think if anything Guiliani will be lucky if it's the other way around.

I was surprised by the debate, because I thought everyone was going to go after Huckabee, but instead Romney and Guiliani spent the whole debate nailing each other.

It looks like everyone is just going to let Huckabee go away with this thing.


by Progressive America on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 09:56:25 AM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (2.00 / 1)

"Now don't get me wrong, I actually don't think on the merits that Huckabee is a mainstream candidate, but his powers of persuasion  seemed pretty powerful."

Why do people believe this? What makes Huckabee not mainstream? After Bushian super-corruption why wouldn't people want to have a supposedly solid (in terms of competence), honest, presumably upstanding person in charge?


by MNPundit on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 10:53:34 AM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

I think he's a clear underdog in the general if he gets there. When was the last really nice guy to be elected president. Not affable like Clinton, I mean warm and cuddly nice like Huckabee. I can't recall one in the 20th Century, though I'm no historian. The American people elect those they think will be strong leaders. Huckabee is very likable, but against Hillary (in particular) or Obama or Edwards I think he could suffer from looking like the weaker leader. Also he has problems with the anti-Tax corporate wing of the party.

I don't think Huckabee is their weakest candidate, but I don't think he's their strongest either. McCain is the one I least want to run against.


by Christopher Lib on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 11:45:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Carter (none / 0)

I posit Carter was viewed that way by and larger when he was first elected. He was viewed as an honest, competent, likable person and hence the answer to the Nixon (and hence Ford) taint.

Of course the economy went south on him big time (stagflation) and the foreign policy disaster of the Iranian hostage crisis doomed him to Reagan's bullshit job.

But he was viewed as a likable guy, just as a bad president.


by lestatdelc on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 08:25:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

I have a buddy from Missisippi who has a very rigthwing christian family, they liked Fred but now they absolutely love Huckabeee. He has a great shot at the gop nomination.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 11:21:05 AM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

because your "buddy" likes him?  Um, yeah, THAT'S scientific!


The only balls the Clintons ever show are against their fellow Democrats, especially progressives.
by jgarcia on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:35:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

Huckabee will obviously win the Southern Baptist vote, and maybe the broader evangelical vote to go with it, but there are 50 states.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 03:04:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

He is a rightwing ideolog and I would be humiliating to have him as our President. Haven't we had enough with Bush. I would only vote for him if Obama is the nominee for the Democrats--and that would be the first time I didn't just pull the lever for the Democratic party.


by maxstar on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:24:50 PM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (2.00 / 1)

you're just as bad as prodigy above.  I am not fond of ANY of our people running, but you purists are ruining everything.  


The only balls the Clintons ever show are against their fellow Democrats, especially progressives.
by jgarcia on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:36:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

I've been saying for a year that Huckabee is the most talented of the Republican contenders.  I think it's obvious to anyone who's ever seen him speak.  He was straight up awesome on his Daily Show appearance too.

Other candidates misunderestimate him at their peril - Republican or Democratic.


by fwiffo on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:25:38 PM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

Can anyone imagine the kind of Republicans we saw at their last convention--the ones wearing band-aids mocking John Kerry's Purple Hearts--actually embracing a "nice guy" Republican?  Their ideology dictates that government cannot solve problems.  It can only punish evildoers--Muslims, Mexicans, homosexuals, etc.  When his opponents portray him as "soft" in places like South Carolina--well, it won't be pretty.


by Upstate Dem on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:33:54 PM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

What a group of presidential candidates! All support a backward policy against gays in the military, some would end the income tax, most support unregulated gun ownership, most oppose sensible policies on illegal immigration, and one won't condemn waterboarding.

Do they think we need all those guns to protect against the threat of gay marriage?

homer   www.altara.blogspot.com


by Homer on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 02:38:29 PM EST

Re: Post-Debate Polls: Huckabee By A Mile (none / 0)

Huckabee's momentum will come to a screeching halt in New Hampshire.  Voters there won't take too kindly to one of the few governors who increased spending faster than President Bush has in the past 8 years.

There's a reason Huckabee can't raise any money -- his spending record is awful, so the business types stay away, and he's too moderate (for conservatives) on immigration.


by Lex on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 04:22:32 PM EST


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