MyDD :: Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way Tie Among Dems in Iowa

Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way Tie Among Dems in Iowa

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:00:20 PM EST

Rasmussen Reports is out with new numbers out of the Iowa Democratic caucuses, which I have paired below along with the outfit's numbers from earlier in the month and the latest average out of the state from Pollster.com, which doesn't include this latest survey.

Candidate	11/29	11/12	Pollster.com
Clinton	27	29	28.7
Obama	25	24	26.0
Edwards	24	25	20.5
Richardson	10	10	8.8
Biden	4	3	4.4

From inside the poll:

In terms of second-choices in Iowa, John Edwards tops the list of candidates. He is the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 18%, Clinton for 16%, and Richardson for 15%. Second choice preferences are especially important given the nature of the Iowa caucuses. In a particular caucus setting, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates.
[...]
Among those who have participated in a caucus before, it's Edwards 25%, Clinton 24% and Obama 22%.

If there's something worth mentioning from this poll, in particular, it's that Edwards may have arrested his fall in Iowa. As noted in the chart above, Pollster.com estimates Edwards to be at around 20.5 percent in Iowa. However, five of the last six polls out of the state have him above that trend estimate, suggesting at the least that he has stopped his decline in the state -- and perhaps has even begun to make up some ground. Combined with the finding that Edwards is the top second choice candidate in this poll, one could come to the conclusion that these numbers look best for him even though he technically places third.

Tags: Iowa Caucuses, Iowa, Democrats, Democratic Primaries, 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 32 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Another poll, Another Effective (none / 0)

I believe that they are many "new voters' that will come out for Obama.

I will say that Obama has a "2-3% hidden voter" because he's the oly guy that has a huge University presence and those kids have cellphones , not landlines.

Rasmussen polled the "second choices" badly.....Seemed like they asked everyone who were their second choices instead of asking for supporters of candidates not expected to pass the 15% treshold.

Richardson is the big prize here.

Some Hillary supporters have stupidly suggested that Richardson second choice is Hillary , but i've never seen the seocnd choice get polled and have Hillary finish in first or second place...She's always in third place.

This means that the thought of Richardson ordering his supporters to caucus for Hillary , is just a wet dream by the Hillary supporters.

by Prodigy on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:09:25 PM EST

Re: Another poll, Another Effective (2.00 / 1)

Todd, you forgot this from Rasmussen:

"When only voters who are "certain" they will participate in the caucus are included in the totals, Obama is supported by 26%, Edwards by 25% and Clinton by 23%."

by BDM on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:16:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

it's impossible to measure (2.00 / 1)

the second choice question, really.

Depending on the caucus math in an individual precinct, even a supporter of a viable candidate may go with a second choice if the second-choice candidate only needs a few more people to get to a delegate.

I wrote about this kind of scenario in one of my Iowa caucus diaries. It happened in my precinct in 1988 and deprived my candidate of a delegate:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/10/1/1516 31/653

If Obama and Edwards supporters cooperate in this fashion on January 3, it ain't looking good for Hillary.

By the way, the husband of the Obama precinct captain in my neighborhood is an Edwards supporter.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:19:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bower's calculation (none / 0)

I substituted the correct numbers for obama and edwards in Chris's avg:

The last three polls show the following average:

Obama 28.0%
Clinton 27.3%
Edwards 23.3%
Richardson 9.0%
Biden 4.0%

by BDM on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:22:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

two Edwards questions (none / 0)

1) What percentage of your 2007 Edwards supporters in your precinct caucused for him in 2004?

2) Do you have any idea what approximate percentage of precincts that Edwards was not viable in Statewide in 2004?

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:14:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: it's impossible to measure (none / 0)

Wow, great diary, especially in light of this post at openleft

by who threw da cat on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another poll, Another Effective (none / 0)

I believe that they are many "new voters' that will come out for Obama.

Ahh, if only I had a dollar for every time I've heard that. And it never ever EVER (except for Paul Wellstone, who will forever remain the exception that proves the rule) comes true.

by ColoradoGuy on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:25:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

American political history is littered (none / 0)

with candidates who expected "new voters" to carry them to victory.

See Kerry, John, 2004 race of.

by DrFrankLives on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:26:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American political history is littered (none / 0)

New and young voters did massively swing for Kerry and dramatically increased turnout - 4 times that of the general population. So kerry's failure was not new voters - it was established voters.

Your association of a Kerry loss to a failure of new voters is pretty sloppy cause and effect.

Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra

by Orlando on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:35:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American political history is littered (none / 0)

I don't really like to say Kerry had a "failure" because he never had a prayer of beating an incumbent President in the first place. He was a weak candidate in terms of his political skills and campaign organization.

However, statistically, his downfall was his poor showing among women voters. He underperformed Gore's 2000 womens vote significantly. That's why the Gore race with Bush was close and the Kerry race wasn't. The difference was women.

A Democratic nominee cannot win the White House without winning the women's vote by double digits or more.

by hwc on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:46:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: American political history is littered (none / 0)

Actually - it was the Dean campaign that had this theory and lost so badly in Iowa

by DuncanB on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way (none / 0)

Keep dreaming rssrai.

by lonnette33 on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:14:55 PM EST

I see it a bit differently (1.50 / 2)

"If there's something worth mentioning from this poll, in particular, it's that Edwards may have arrested his fall in Iowa. "

I disagree. I think it shows there never was a fall. He's held steady all along. The others just advertised like crazy and brought over some undecideds to their columns.

John Edwards's support in Iowa is rock solid. Now that he's on the air there, he'll start pulling his own share of undecideds his way.

We're going to shock the world. I can't wait to see the talking heads have to actually say "In a race widely portrayed as a two-person showdown between Senators Clinton and Obama, former Senator John Edwards has roared back with a convincing win in Iowa. Joe, does this mean Hillary is finished?"

by DrFrankLives on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:25:35 PM EST

Re: I see it a bit differently (none / 0)

I would say at this point Obama is the most scared of Edwards coming from behind to win Iowa, when the narrative now is that Obama is winning Iowa. It is also quite obvious that if the Clinton campaign were to choose, they would rather see Edwards win Iowa than Obama.

by georgep on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 02:16:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I see it a bit differently (none / 0)

If Edwards wins Iowa and Obama finishes second, thats pretty destructive for Clinton.

by AC4508 on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 03:09:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama can't win because of white racism? (none / 0)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/29/120 20/978#commenttop

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:27:16 PM EST

Correction (none / 0)

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps /pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071123/OPINION0 101/711210384/1012/OPINION

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 12:34:16 PM EST

Re: Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way (none / 0)

Sorry, chump. Like usual, your opinion do not mesh with reality:

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/ news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id= 1003678452&imw=Y

NEW YORK If Hillary Clinton -- or, for matter, Jeb Bush -- is elected president next year and serves two terms in office, that would mean a Bush or a Clinton would have held the White House for a whopping 28 years. And to think many once worried about a "Kennedy Dynasty." Yet a new Gallup poll find that most Americans are not concerned about that.

The poll founds that 54% declared that this new dynasty "would not make much difference."

by FilbertSF on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:05:58 PM EST

Re: Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way Tie Amon (2.00 / 1)

The basic structure that led to Edwards' 2nd in 2004 remained. What's critical is the unique 2nd choice aspect. Clinton supporters are likely to have Biden/Richardson as a second choice. Supporters of Biden/Richardson are likely to have Clinton as second choice.
The rest of the candidates will have supporters who will NOT have Clinton as second choice.
Obama will have a passionate commitment from his younger supporters(rightly so) in response to todays' front page slime in WAPO...However, all Iowa Colleges and Universities will be on break and that will be a factor.

My communication with friends in Iowa lead me to believe that the Edwards campaign is exactly where he wanted to be at this time.
Obama support is not in rural Iowa.
Clinton support is not in rural Iowa.

January 3rd on a Robert Frost night in Iowa...
who will show up?

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:33:36 PM EST

I don't think so (none / 0)

In my precinct, I know of three solid Biden supporters, plus a Biden leaner. One has Richardson as a second choice, one has Edwards as a second choice, one I don't know anything about, and the last would choose either Edwards or Clinton as a second choice.

Of the Richardson supporters I know about, one definitely has Edwards as a second choice, one leans to Edwards as a second choice, and others are unsure about their second choice.

I also know of several undecideds in my precinct who are on the fence between Edwards and Richardson. Presumably the other would be their second choice.

I tend to agree with howardpark's observation recently in his diary about canvassing in New Hampshire. Voters face a decision tree, and the first decision is Hillary or not Hillary. If they choose not Hillary, then they have more decisions to make. But I don't see Hillary as a second choice for a large number of people.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 02:45:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Appreciate your knowledgeable commentary (none / 0)

I am rooting for Hillary, but it looks to me as if Edwards might pull this out and take Iowa.

As for where everyone else might end up, I haven't a clue.

by Coral on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 06:16:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way Tie Amon (none / 0)

Hillary and her supporters are just beginning the real fight. Since all the candidates on both sides and the media have been throwing it at her hard and she hasn't imploded, you know her campaign has some intense basic strength.
Today, Bobby Kennedy Jr, perhaps 2nd only to Al Gore in the world of environmental policy, has endorsed Hillary Clinton and will campaign in Iowa- Just the beginning- Oprah's celebrity endorsement pales when compared to endorsements of substance.

Experience Counts-Hillary 08!

by ExperienceCounts on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:56:37 PM EST

Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way Tie (none / 0)

If there's something worth mentioning from this poll, in particular, it's that Edwards may have arrested his fall in Iowa.

I've followed every Iowa poll since February. There has never been a single poll that suggests enough movement in the state to qualify as a "fall" or a "rise". The media and the bloggers who suggest otherwise are just fooling themselves when the polling has consistently shown three candidates all bouncing around in the 20s.

The Iowa caucus is like the crazy uncle nobody wants to be around but who has to be dragged out for the holidays once every four years. Trying to predict what the crazy uncle (or Iowa) will do based on a few points difference in poll samples is absurd.

By custom, the media should be writing this morning that the Rasmussen poll shows Clinton "surging back" into the lead. But, of course, that would be absurd.

by hwc on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:57:08 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

I can't wait until these caucuses actually happen. I've never even been to Iowa and I'm sick of it. Rememember that this was supposed to be the year Iowa wasn't going to matter any more. Here's my election prediction...come January all the candidates will be surging their ass of out of there.

by alexmhogan on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 01:58:09 PM EST

In Nov Hillary was 25%-29% in every Iowa poll (none / 0)

Concidering different polls use different methedoligies of likely voters and ask question differently, that range is remarkably consistant. If she stays in there she'll be in good shape, if not to win than to come a close second. The highest she scored in any Iowa poll this year was 33%, so i don't think the tailspin mantra holds water. It was always her worst state.

by Christopher Lib on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 02:20:02 PM EST

Re: In Nov Hillary was 25%-29% in every Iowa poll (none / 0)

Correction her highest mark in Iowa this year (after rechecking RCP) was 35%, but that was way back in January.

by Christopher Lib on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 02:22:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the problem for her, though (none / 0)

is that 25 to 29 percent may only be good enough for third place this year, and she seems to trail on second choices in every poll.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 02:47:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards will get delegates in every precinct. (none / 0)

That's why he's going to win going away.

When the media have to explain why a 3-way tie turned into an easy Edwards' victory, they're going to have to admit it was because Edwards was able to close the sale in rural America.

John Edwards 2008

by MeanBoneII on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 02:58:15 PM EST

Re: Edwards will get delegates in every precinct. (none / 0)

the media doesn't have to anything. they can make shit up and they know most peo will buy it.

by bruh21 on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 05:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way Tie Amon (none / 0)

Who do Richardson's supporters go to? That has to be key.

by MNPundit on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 03:49:49 PM EST

Re: Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way (none / 0)

there are substantive arguments and good news here for your candidate. Your demagoguing takes away from it.

by world dictator on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 04:33:29 PM EST

Re: Another poll, Another Effective 3-Way Tie Amon (none / 0)