Good article in the New Yorker on the Obama relaunch. The Political Scene

It's working...

The smart money still has to be on Hillary, but things are more promising than a month ago. All you can really ask for are positive trends, and that's what we're seeing.

Obama finally realized that going at Hillary--intelligently--is actually a cost-free endeavor despite Team Clinton's "what happened to the politics of hope?" gimmick.

Moreover, her poll slippage now necessitates that she engage Obama, giving him any necessary cover when he hits her back...hard!

So much as Hillary is falling.

Beating Hillary would be one of the most significant developments in the Democratic Party since McCarthy.

Do you have Chris Matthews disease, which causes the afflicted to ignore other recent polling and focus only on one poll?

I don't think you do.

I am sure you have seen the two other recent polls that have seen the 9 other November polls that suggest the race has changed much, if at all.

Pollster:

http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php

The Chrissy Matthews types may want to take a lesson on reading polls from Stu Rothenberg:

"For years, Independent political analysts have been warning about reporters' tendencies to compare polls conducted by different polling firms, to over-interpret small changes in poll results and to treat the results of the most recent survey as if they are etched into stone."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/1 1/20/two_networks_flop_in_reporting_on_n ew_poll.html

Jerome, I disagree with the analysis on national polls.  That one seems to be an errant one rather than an indication.

Consider that in the last week we have seen a total of 6 national polls released.

I list here the 5 non-Zogby polls we have seen:

Saturday:

Foxnews - 21% Clinton lead, represented a 4% Clinton surge from the previous Fox poll, in which Clinton's lead was 1%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/1115 07_release_web.pdf

Sunday:

Latest Gallup poll:

shows a massive 27% lead.  No change from the previous 2 months.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/102799/Clinto n-Sustains-Huge-Lead-Democratic-Nominati on-Race.aspx

Monday:

Harris Interactive National poll:

Clinton 52%, Obama 29%, Edwards 11%

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_ poll/index.asp?PID=836

Tuesday:

Rasmussen tracking data:

Clinton 43%, Obama 20%, Edwards 14%

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presid ential_election/daily_presidential_track ing_poll

Tuesday:

AP national poll:

Clinton 48, Obama 22, Edwards 13, Undecided 12

http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=AjzT56DuLmM _j.MbEd4GabB0KY54/SIG=12cgsimjn/**http%3 A/l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nws/gr/ap _yahoo_poll_nov_topline.pdf

http://www.palmettoscoop.com/2007/11/19/ new-sc-presidential-poll

DEMOCRATS:

Hillary Clinton - 40%
Barack Obama - 21%
John Edwards - 13%

Mitt Romney now interestingly taking the lead in SC for the first time:

REPUBLICANS:

Mitt Romney - 20%
Rudy Giuliani - 19%
John McCain - 17%
Fred Thompson - 13%
Mike Huckabee - 8%

Huckabee's surging faster than I thought he would. He still has a few basic problems:

1. Too many enemies: it's not good when the anti-taxers and the anti-immigrant crowds both appear to hate you. Here's where a real, serious beltway establishment endorsement could help him. These groups have enough clout to prevent him from winning Iowa and from winning the nomination.
   
2. Not enough money: Huckabee, despite recent improvements, is still drastically underfunded compared to his main competitors. Hell, even Ron Paul will probably raise $12M in the fourth  quarter. Huckabee will be pleased to get to $5M or $6M. Ultimately, at this stage, the importance of money is that it allows you to fight off the negative attack ads that take center stage at this final phase of the nomination fight. Without more money, he's just going to get mugged by negative TV ads from Romney, Thompson, the Club for Growth, and others.
   
3. Gaffes: Candidates who survive off of positive earned media and word-of-mouth buzz do so by being quotable and pushing the rhetorical envelope. More quote-worthy commentary correlates with more gaffes, and so these candidates tend to self-destruct near the end. Huckabee isn't particularly gaffe-prone, but still he's come close to gaff-ing in the past, and with the pressure building and his instinct for the quick quip and witty repartee, his verbal risk factor is building.
   

Don't mess with georgep when it comes to polls!!!

a 2 point uptick is a surge?

There enough here for we Obama supporters to hope, but you just have to look at the Republican changes up and down over the last 6 months to see what real "surges" look like.  Hillary Clinton has to still be strongly favored, but Obama is not out.  

Have a great thanksgiving weekend everyone, rest up for the next few months.

Indeed. Happy Thanksgiving to you too.

It's clearly not like a month or so ago when Hillary looked like she would runaway with it, but Nationally if it's closing it's not by that much according to polls throughout November. The RCP Average is still a 20 point lead for her, even factoring in this Zogby poll. And sorry, Zogby is not the best polling source around. The opening any of her opponents have is going to have to come from Iowa, the only state she doesn't have more than a 10 point lead in.

Happy thanksgiving everybody, even Hillarybots ----lol-    it's going to be a brutal 6 weeks to the finish so lts try to keep it from getting really ugly! I'll try to tone down some of the rhetoric a little, I hope others follow suit.

oh btw, I see Obambo does not celebrate thanksgiving.. anyone hear why??

One of the reasons I worry so much about the guy is that he keeps his wingnut views below the radar much of the time. Here's a fact sheet I just got from the National Jewish Democratic Council:

Dangerous Dark Horse:

HUCKABEE'S EXTREMISM

Huckabee indicated that he does not believe in evolution during a GOP primary debate.  Watch the YouTube clip here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4Cc8t3Zd 5E

[5/3/07]

Huckabee said it is imperative to "take this nation back for Christ."  [ Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 6/8/98]

Huckabee said that most prisoners would love to be in a jail like Guantanamo Bay .    Said the former Governor: "Most of our prisoners would love to be in a facility more like Guantanamo and less like the state prisons that people are in in the United States ." [ThinkProgress 6/7/07]

Huckabee called legal abortion a "holocaust."  Huckabee told the Family Research Council: "It might be for the last 35 years, we have aborted more than a million people who would have been in our workforce had we not had the holocaust of liberalized abortion under a flawed Supreme Court ruling in 1973."  [CNN, 10/21/07]

Prior to leaving office, Huckabee had online gift registries allowing lobbyists to know exactly which gifts to buy him in order to curry influence.  In response a former Arkansas state government official was quoted as saying: "He's using the trappings of the governor's office to get everything he can, and the sad part of it is, I honestly believe he does not see anything wrong with this,"  [Arkansas News Bureau, 11/13/06]

Huckabee falsely claimed that most of the signatories of the Declaration of Independence were clergymen.  In fact, only one of 56 was indeed a clergyman.  Huckabee said: "The signers of the Declaration of Independence were `brave people, most of whom, by the way, were clergymen.'" Per the St. Petersburg Times and Congressional Quarterly's website PoliFact, only John Witherspoon was a clergyman. [PolitFact.com, 10/21/07]

On Huckabee's campaign website, he says that religion "drives" his decisions and that he does not separate religion from his professional life.   Additionally, Huckabee pledges on his website that, as President, he would "staff all relevant positions with pro-life appointees."  Huckabee also says that his efforts in Arkansas to infringe on a woman's right to choose "are the accomplishments that give him the most pride and personal satisfaction."

And, some creepy one-liners from Governor Huckabee:

Huckabee "joked" that he lost weight because Democrats put him in a concentration camp.  "I have just come from six weeks at a concentration camp held by the Democrat party of Arkansas in an undisclosed location, making a hostage tape. That's why I look that way," he said. [ Arkansas Times, 10/6/06]

Huckabee said that only Baptists go to Heaven.  "I love to tell the story of the lady who asked me in my early political life if it was true that I was a Baptist minister, and I said, `Yes, ma'am, that is true.' She said, `Well, let me ask you, are you one of those narrow-minded Baptists who think only Baptists go to heaven?' I said, `No, ma'am, actually I'm more narrow than that; I don't think all of the Baptists are going to make it.'" [Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, 6/6/07]