MyDD :: NJ-07: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson To Retire

NJ-07: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson To Retire

by Todd Beeton, Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 01:49:45 PM EST

And the flies just keep on dropping. Today, Congressman Mike Ferguson of New Jersey's 7th district (PVI R+1) announced he'll be retiring at the end of his term to spend more time with his family. Blue Jersey has his full statement.

Ferguson makes the 17th GOP retirement of the year and may be the most unexpected one yet. The Cook Political Report's Competitive House Race Chart listed the 2008 race for the seat as highly competitive (although "Leans Republican") due to the partisan make-up of the district and the close race Ferguson had against Linda Stender last year (he won by under 2%) but it was not on any potential open seat list. This had to be a heartbreaker for the NRCC.

Stender is running again this year (placeholder site is HERE) so expect this to be shifted to the "Toss-up" category, but while it's an excellent pick-up opportunity for the Democrats, Stender could very well have a top-tier challenger in Thomas Keane Jr., who ran for Senate last year.

From NJ Politicker:

Senate Minority Leader-designate Thomas Kean, Jr. becomes one of the most likely GOP candidates for the seat. Kean, the Republican U.S. Senate in 2006, was among the candidates who ran against Ferguson in the 7th district Republican primary in 2000, when Bob Franks gave up the seat to run for the Senate.

Between the retirement of Jim Saxton in NJ's 3rd and now Ferguson in the 7th, we have a real opportunity to firm up our hold on the Northeast and shift New Jersey's congressional delegation from 7D-6R to a split more in keeping with the voting habits of the state.

Tags: nj-07, mike ferguson, linda stender (all tags)

Permalink :: 12 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: NJ-07: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson To Retire (2.00 / 2)

I doubt that Kean, fresh off of a state-wide loss, will want to take this challenge. He just took over as State Senate Minority leader, so he has a plausible reason not to run. There are other (less well known) Republicans who will pull off from the Lautenberg Senate seat to pursue this one.

I think Kean will wait for a more favorable year to make a state-wide run. If he lost here, his career would likely be limited to his State Senate seat.

by Ephus on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 01:55:20 PM EST

Interesting take (none / 0)

Didn't think of it that way.

I assumed that Kean would be able to cruise in this race given the name recognition and support he gained in a fairly strong Senate run.

by dpANDREWS on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 02:25:54 PM EST
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Dems can win a bunch of seats (none / 0)

Dems should attack hard. Try to win 60 Senate seats and 30+ House seats.

Scoring big victory margins in 2008 will trigger a new wave of GOP retirements in 2010.

And winning big in 2010 means controlling the remap process.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 01:56:27 PM EST

Re: Dems can win a bunch of seats (none / 0)

I'm assuming you mean that winning big in both '08 and '10 at the congressional level would also likely result in big wins at the state level since it's at the state, not federal level of government that state and federal district maps are drawn.

by Quinton on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 03:08:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems can win a bunch of seats (none / 0)

Coattails. Create the perception of having momentum at the federal level and it will help in state leg races.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 03:09:36 PM EST
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Re: Dems can win a bunch of seats (none / 0)

Agreed :)

by Quinton on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 03:17:35 PM EST
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Re: NJ-07: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson To Retire (none / 0)

For those who are counting, this is #17 for the house. Talk about Republican fallout.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 02:08:04 PM EST

Re: NJ-07: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson To Retire (none / 0)

This retirement is unexpected indeed. Ferguson is just 37 years old, but with a future of defending his tough swing district only to be re-elected into the minority, I guess he decided his future in politics wasnt too rosy.

by AC4508 on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 02:09:25 PM EST

Re: NJ-07: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson To Retire (none / 0)

That's a great retirement. Ferguson was way too wingnutty for this district and it's disappointing we hadn't beaten him already. I like our chances to pick up an open seat.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 02:18:14 PM EST

Re: NJ-07: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson To Retire (none / 0)

NJ-7 is similar to John Hall's NY-19 Westchester County Area district- It is a NYC Suburban District.

by nkpolitics on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 02:53:43 PM EST

Update: Kean not running (none / 0)

Kean not running, will focus on being Senate Minority Leader. Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick, who was preparing to challenge Lautenberg, is now the leading contender for the GOP nod.

On the other side, Dems have rallied around Stender to prevent anyone else hopping into the field.

This is now the second open GOP-held seat in NJ, and one of three competitive seats. NRCC has no money to compete, and the NJ GOP is in shambles, even after their supposed big victorious election a few weeks ago (they came out with a net gain of one assembly seat and a net loss of one senate seat, but won what was arguably the banner contest of the season in Beck v Karcher). DCCC seems committed to funding at least two of the three races.

My bet: Stender wins with a comfortable but not a blow out margin. This seat turns to toss-up now, and will be in leans dem column within months.

by Turnpike Kid on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 07:14:26 PM EST

Re: Update: Kean not running (none / 0)

It is not surprising (see my comment above) that Kean chose not to stake the rest of his career on defeating Stender in this environment.

Factors in Stender's favor:

1) Presidential election - whoever the Dems nominate is likely to be the favorite in NJ over the GOP nominee. If the GOP candidate is Giuliani, then the Dem would be a moderate favorite. If the GOP candidate is anyone else, the Dem would be a prohibitive favorite and there would be little likelihood of the presidential candidates putting in money and appearances.

2) Senate election - Lautenberg is going to run for re-election. The GOP will convince themselves that he is beatable (too old, too liberal). The GOP candidate will have a serious name recognition deficit. Building name recognition in NJ is incredibly expensive because the media markets are dominated by NY and PA. In Northern Jersey, television ads require you to pay for 3 NY viewers and .5 CT viewers for every NJ viewer that you reach. In Central and Southern Jersey, you have to pay for 2 PA viewers for every NJ viewer you reach. Lautenberg will spend whatever it takes to drive up the negatives of the GOP candidate. Lautenberg will also activate the Democratic machines to turn out the vote (which matters in NJ-7 - particularly in Union County).

3) Name recognition - Stender built name recognition in the last election. Her GOP opponent will have to do so. For the reasons set forth above, TV buys in NJ-7 are extremely expensive (about 15 non-NJ-7 viewers for every NJ-7 viewer that you reach).

I think Stender will win with the same margin as Lautenberg.

by Ephus on Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 12:00:37 PM EST
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