There is no doubt that the American people are not entirely content with the results that have come out of the new Democratic Congress. Political pundits have used this fact to suggest that voters are having second thoughts about having elected Democratic majorities, or perhaps even that they are likely to throw out those Democratic majorities next fall. But is such a conclusion warranted from Congress' low approval ratings?
To answer this question, first take a look at the results of an ABC News/Washington Post poll in the field towards the end of September. According to the survey, just 16 percent of American adults said they thought Congress had achieved a great deal or good amount this year while a whopping 82 percent said that they thought Congress had achieved little or nothing. However, when those who rated Congress negatively in this regard were asked who was to blame for this situation, fully 51 percent said that either George W. Bush or the Republicans in Congress were to blame, compared to the 25 percent who blamed the Democrats in Congress and the 20 percent who blamed both sides equally.
More recently, a Gallup poll released this past week found that the Democratic Party's favorability rating among the American people was significantly higher than that of the GOP's favorability rating. Specifically the Democrats' 54 percent positive/37 percent negative spread, which is actually slightly better than its rating the month before the 2006 midterm elections, compares quite favorably with the 40 percent positive/50 percent negative spread enjoyed by the Republican Party.
Looking even more deeply into those Gallup numbers, the Democratic Party is viewed more favorably by Independents than the Republican Party (47 percent positive/40 percent negative for the Democratic Party versus 33 percent positive/55 percent negative for the Republican Party). Moreover, Republicans are close to twice as likely to rate the Democratic Party favorably as Democrats are to rate the GOP favorably (16 percent versus 9 percent), suggesting a greater potential for Republican cross-over voters than for Democratic ones.
Finally, the Gallup poll also found a real difference in party registration. Just one quarter of Americans (25 percent) self-identify with the Republican Party, much less than the 34 percent self-identifying as Democrats and 41 percent self-identifying as Independent. Although Gallup apparently didn't push the Independent plurality to see which way they lean, the favorable numbers for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party among Independents cited above suggest that Independents remain more Democratic than Republican. Moreover, a Pew poll from last month did show that Independents are more likely to lean towards the Democratic Party (17 percent of Americans) than to the Republican Party (11 percent).
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