Democrats' Numbers Don't Look Half Bad

There is no doubt that the American people are not entirely content with the results that have come out of the new Democratic Congress. Political pundits have used this fact to suggest that voters are having second thoughts about having elected Democratic majorities, or perhaps even that they are likely to throw out those Democratic majorities next fall. But is such a conclusion warranted from Congress' low approval ratings?

To answer this question, first take a look at the results of an ABC News/Washington Post poll in the field towards the end of September. According to the survey, just 16 percent of American adults said they thought Congress had achieved a great deal or good amount this year while a whopping 82 percent said that they thought Congress had achieved little or nothing. However, when those who rated Congress negatively in this regard were asked who was to blame for this situation, fully 51 percent said that either George W. Bush or the Republicans in Congress were to blame, compared to the 25 percent who blamed the Democrats in Congress and the 20 percent who blamed both sides equally.

More recently, a Gallup poll released this past week found that the Democratic Party's favorability rating among the American people was significantly higher than that of the GOP's favorability rating. Specifically the Democrats' 54 percent positive/37 percent negative spread, which is actually slightly better than its rating the month before the 2006 midterm elections, compares quite favorably with the 40 percent positive/50 percent negative spread enjoyed by the Republican Party.

Looking even more deeply into those Gallup numbers, the Democratic Party is viewed more favorably by Independents than the Republican Party (47 percent positive/40 percent negative for the Democratic Party versus 33 percent positive/55 percent negative for the Republican Party). Moreover, Republicans are close to twice as likely to rate the Democratic Party favorably as Democrats are to rate the GOP favorably (16 percent versus 9 percent), suggesting a greater potential for Republican cross-over voters than for Democratic ones.

Finally, the Gallup poll also found a real difference in party registration. Just one quarter of Americans (25 percent) self-identify with the Republican Party, much less than the 34 percent self-identifying as Democrats and 41 percent self-identifying as Independent. Although Gallup apparently didn't push the Independent plurality to see which way they lean, the favorable numbers for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party among Independents cited above suggest that Independents remain more Democratic than Republican. Moreover, a Pew poll from last month did show that Independents are more likely to lean towards the Democratic Party (17 percent of Americans) than to the Republican Party (11 percent).



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Re: Democrats' Numbers Don't Look Half Bad (none / 0)

The media and the Republicans want to scare us away from an all Democratic government.  However, after Bush offers WW3 whats to fear from the Democrats?  


by changingroom on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 02:30:36 AM EST

Re: Democrats' Numbers Don't Look Half Bad (none / 0)

The generic ballot shows a near 12 point lead in polls for the Dems from the most liberal to the most conservative organizations. When it closes to within three I would let them come and pedal that stuff. With a gap of 12 points dont confuse me with other irrelevant stuff as to whether the Congressional approval rating is low. Frequently look at Charlie Cook's site on the status of House races. At present none, not even Lampson's seat is regarded as a toss up...although I think two or three of the Dem seats may end up being toss ups.

Also congressional approval ratings include Senate. And as of now, I see a possibility of four to five seat gains in the Senate not including McConell and Smith.


by Boilermaker on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 10:53:58 AM EST
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Re: Democrats' Numbers Don't Look Half Bad (none / 0)

Gee guys, your party is doing better than you think it is.


by spirowasright on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 11:55:21 AM EST

Re: Democrats' Numbers Don't Look Half Bad (none / 0)

Are you the guy that still calls himself a Republican?


by Cleveland John on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 12:17:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats' Numbers Don't Look Half Bad (none / 0)

Actually, I'm an ex-Republican (became disnechanted with the GOP when it went ga-ga over Ronnie Hollywood in the 1980s).
My understanding of history tells me that your party and political beliefs are about due for a comeback, but everybody online seem to enjoy being "Nattering naobbs of negativism" (hence my online name, spirowasright)and would rahter whine about your side not being perfect instead of trying to get things done.
by spirowasright on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 06:44:38 PM EST
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Re: Democrats' Numbers Don't Look Half Bad (none / 0)

Let me clarify this. It seems to me that most online progressive would rahter cry about wimpy leadership in Congress and funny voting machines than do anything.
I've been coming to these online progressive web sites for over 10 years now (I started because I wanted to read something about politics that didn't read like an RNC press relase) and I;'ve grown a little weary with reading the tirades of poeple who seem to vote Blue and think Red(neck), while ganing up on anyone with encouraging news as if they were making an unpopular statement in a high school or junior college current events discussion.
by spirowasright on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 06:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I totally agree (none / 0)

If a polling firm called me and asked the question "Do you approve of the job Congress is doing?" -I would give them a solid answer of NO!

If they asked why? I'd say there are too many Republicans in it. (60 vote Senate)


by Cleveland John on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 12:13:50 PM EST


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