Since most polls are unable to capture the complex nature of the Iowa caucuses, Iowa Independent has taken to using a less conventional methodology to try and answer the question: "If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?"

Campaigns were evaluated based on impressions we received from activists, everyday caucus-goers, event attendees, and pundits about  the quality of each campaign's on-the-ground organization, the likelihood of each candidate's supporters actually attending a caucus, second choice support, and -- at the most basic level -- gut feelings and guesses.

Interestingly, their conclusions are pretty much the inverse of what most polls are telling us right now.

1. John Edwards -- Edwards started about a year ago with the best organization in Iowa, and most of the foundation he built here is still in place.  Although concerns persist that his sharpening rhetoric may be alienating a few of his earliest supporters, his solid performance at the Jefferson Jackson dinner, his endorsement from Caucus 4 Priorities (and the potential 10,000 caucus-goers it could bring him), and his ongoing commitment to retail politicking keep him  in the top spot -- for now.

2. Barack Obama -- Obama's organization was fairly inconsistent over the summer, with some counties getting a lot of attention and others getting barely any.  Still, his campaign's ability to build crowds --  as evidenced by his huge and geographically diverse group of  supporters at the Jefferson Jackson dinner -- are as good a measure of his strength as anything.  And as Clinton continues to receive sharper attacks from Edwards and subtler attacks from Obama himself, the Illinois Senator could move up in the coming weeks -- particularly on news of his United Auto Workers endorsement.  As things stand  now, he would still place second behind Edwards.

3. Hillary Clinton -- Different sources tell vastly different stories  about the Clinton campaign in Iowa.  Some expect it to flop completely, but others point to poll numbers showing Clinton in the  top spot among Democratic candidates in Iowa.  All that said, her aura  of inevitability has been all but shattered by increased criticism over the past few weeks, and she seems to lack significant second choice support.  And her latest swing through Iowa highlighted her energy policy, something which may not resonate among working class women, which continues to be her key demographic.  Frankly, although the polls show Clinton in first place in Iowa, many of us have been hard pressed to find solid Clinton supporters whose names have not already appeared on a campaign press release.

The implication here is that Clinton's lead in the polls out of Iowa is hollow, which I find to be an intriguing conclusion for a couple of reasons. First, while Clinton's lead has been narrow (and shrinking of late,) it has been consistent. The last poll to show her in anything but first place was a Newsweek poll in late September. The other thing about her polling strength is that it was completely earned. Throughout the spring and summer, Clinton polled regularly in second or third place; for the past month, while second third have been fluid, her lead has been remarkably stable. So, while I'm not in Iowa, nor do I claim to be an expert on the complexities of the Iowa caucus, my gut tells me that, were the caucus to be held today, Clinton would probably end up in second and Obama in third. Not that I would suggest you take my gut into consideration when predicting Iowa. Iowa Independent's Power Rankings on the other hand are something to keep your eye on. Next week: the Republicans.