I understand why some may feel Hillary is very likely to win the democratic nomination , but after taking a strong look at Giuliani's national and early-states poll numbers , i just do not understand why he's tagged as the candidate most likely to win the GOP nomination.
The Clinton campaign and their supporters have been pushing from the start , this meme suggesting that Giuliani would eventualy win the GOP nomination and she's the only candidate that would be able to convincingly beat him in the northeastern region.
I agree with the Clintons camp , Hillary is probably the only democratic candidate who wont have to spend money to put Giualiani away in states like PA , CA , CT and NJ and there are right when they say that Giualini would at least , make Obama and Edwards spend money in those states.
While i don't believe Obama nor Edwards would lose those northeastern states , but the fact that money would have to go in those reliable-democratic states to fend off Giuliani , would be troubling since money going to NJ OR CT means less money for FL , OH etc etc.
In other words , the Clinton camp have been using Giuliani to make their case on why she should be handed the democratic nomination , but , if you look at Giuliani numbers a bit closer , you would come with the same conclusion that i came up with which is , Giuliani will not win the GOP nomination.
I will predict right here with 100% confidence that he will not win and Romney or Huckabee are in a stronger position then Giuliani right now.
Just like Hillary , Giuliani leads in the national polls but unlike her , he's currently not leading on any early state polls.
To make it worse , Giuliani can not even count on finishing in second place in Iowa.
With Huckabee surging up , Giulaini can only hope of fending off Thompson and McCain for third place.
Just think about it , it's one thing for the frontrunner to not finish second in Iowa , but for him to also have to battle for a third place finish?
Is he really that strong of a frontrunner?
let me remind you that not only is Giuliani getting crushed in Iowa by double digits , but he's also getting his ass kicked in NH.
While some Clinton supporters have admitted Giuliani won't win Iowa , they seem to be convince he will win NH...Really? So you really think a third place finish in Iowa wont mean anything to NH voters?
It's not even a given he will finish third in Iowa since there's a strong possibility he could slip to number 4 , but how can this guy get frontrunner status?
Take a look at realclearpolitics.com Iowa numbers:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/
2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus
-207.html
Their average says this:
Romney 29.2%
Huckabee 15.4%
Giuliani 13.2%
Thompson 11.6%
McCain 7.8%
Let me state that Huckabee hasnt even gone on the air in Iowa yet and has no money.I think Giuliani has been sending thousands of mails and gone on radio.
Giuliani is also trailing in South Carolina and he has no firewall until Florida , but i strongly believe a one-two hit in Iowa-NH will destroy all his credebility as the only candidate who can beat Hillary and his 10 point lead in FL will evaporate quickly.
People will say " how can we trust you on beating Hillary when you couldn't even beat Mike Huckabee in Iowa , a guy that has zero money and no name recognition"
After a Giuiani third place finish in IA , i believe it will be all downhill momentum for him and his national numbers will tank.
Unlike Hillary , he only has a low teen lead and his support is extremely vague which means a bad showing in Iowa would probably get many people jumping off his ship.
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