Is Giuliani really the GOP shoe-in nominee?

I understand why some may feel Hillary is very likely to win the democratic nomination , but after taking a strong look at Giuliani's national and early-states poll numbers , i just do not understand why he's tagged as the candidate most likely to win the GOP nomination.

The Clinton campaign and their supporters have been pushing from the start , this meme suggesting that Giuliani would eventualy win the GOP nomination and she's the only candidate that would be able to convincingly beat him in the northeastern region.

I agree with the Clintons camp , Hillary is probably the only democratic candidate who wont have to spend money to put Giualiani away in states like PA , CA , CT and NJ and there are right when they say that Giualini would at least , make Obama and Edwards spend money in those states.

While i don't believe Obama nor Edwards would lose those northeastern states , but the fact that money would have to go in those reliable-democratic states to fend off Giuliani , would be troubling since money going to NJ OR CT means less money for FL , OH etc etc.

In other words , the Clinton camp have been using Giuliani to make their case on why she should be handed the democratic nomination , but , if you look at Giuliani numbers a bit closer , you would come with the same conclusion that i came up with which is , Giuliani will not win the GOP nomination.

I will predict right here with 100% confidence that he will not win and Romney or Huckabee are in a stronger position then Giuliani right now.

Just like Hillary , Giuliani leads in the national polls but unlike her , he's currently not leading on any early state polls.

To make it worse , Giuliani can not even count on finishing in second place in Iowa.
With Huckabee surging up , Giulaini can only hope of fending off Thompson and McCain for third place.

Just think about it , it's one thing for the frontrunner to not finish second in Iowa , but for him to also have to battle for a third place finish?
Is he really that strong of a frontrunner?

let me remind you that not only is Giuliani getting crushed in Iowa by double digits , but he's also getting his ass kicked in NH.

While some Clinton supporters have admitted Giuliani won't win Iowa , they seem to be convince he will win NH...Really? So you really think a third place finish in Iowa wont mean anything to NH voters?
It's not even a given he will finish third  in Iowa since there's a strong possibility he could slip to number 4 , but how can this guy get frontrunner status?

Take a look at realclearpolitics.com  Iowa numbers:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus -207.html
Their average says this:

Romney   29.2%
Huckabee 15.4%
Giuliani 13.2%
Thompson 11.6%
McCain    7.8%

Let me state that Huckabee hasnt even gone on the air in Iowa yet and has no money.I think Giuliani has been sending thousands of mails and gone on radio.

Giuliani is also trailing in South Carolina and he has no firewall until Florida , but i strongly believe a one-two hit in Iowa-NH will destroy all his credebility as the only candidate who can beat Hillary and his 10 point lead in FL will evaporate quickly.
People will say " how can we trust you on beating Hillary when you couldn't even beat Mike Huckabee in Iowa , a guy that has zero money and no name recognition"

After  a Giuiani third place finish in IA , i believe it will be all downhill momentum for him and his national numbers will tank.

Unlike Hillary , he only has a low teen lead and his support is extremely vague which means a bad showing in Iowa would probably get many people jumping off his ship.


Poll
Do you think Giuliani will win the GOP nomination?
yes
no

Votes: 11
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


i tthink he wont be (none / 0)

but i hope he will...

keep stickin needles in your john mccain voodoo dolls.


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Democrat Party "Hack" and President Harry S Truman
by holden caulfield on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 06:41:00 PM EST

WTF? (none / 0)

Why do you "hope" Giuliani will be the Republican nominee? Do you want our candidate to have a harder time winning?


by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 06:49:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WTF? (none / 0)

I think there is a strog possibility a right wing christian party would form if a pro-choice abortion candidate wins the GOP nomination and my guess is that this is the mai reason why the Clinton camps are pushing Giuliani as the ievitable GOP nominee.

Polls have shown that Hillary would handidly win with a viable third candidate and we also know there are some evegelicals out there that will never support Giuliani.


by Prodigy on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 06:56:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rudy is far from their strongest (none / 0)

Huckabee would be a strong candidate, and McCain would also be much stronger than Rudy.

Rudy is not going to be the nominee, and if he were, millions of evangelicals would stay home rather than vote for him. Even if they reluctantly voted for him against our candidate, they wouldn't work their hearts out for him the way they would do for some of the other Republicans in the field.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 07:19:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

yeah im a hidden republican troll (none / 0)

to repeat"

Hill will club Rudy like a baby seal.

You dont think he really dropped out of the 2000 NY race cause he had butt cancer do ya?


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Democrat Party "Hack" and President Harry S Truman
by holden caulfield on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 08:10:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

holden, you are no doubt very glad (none / 0)

McCain has been sinking. If McCain were riding high I think more people would be asking questions about Hillary's electability.

Rudy is not going to be the nominee, and even if he were, he would be a much weaker general election candidate than McCain or Huckabee, who's my worst nightmare.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 07:18:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

id heard - but not seen (none / 0)

hed gone up -

hes their strongest choice and hed be worse on O and E...

Hill will club Rudy like a baby seal.

You dont think he really dropped out of the 2000 NY race cause he had butt cancer do ya?


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Democrat Party "Hack" and President Harry S Truman
by holden caulfield on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 08:06:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

huckabee would be the civil war redux. (none / 0)

itd leave cities in flames..


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Democrat Party "Hack" and President Harry S Truman
by holden caulfield on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 08:08:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Giuliani really the GOP shoe-in nominee? (none / 0)

A lot of Democrats and Republicans have won the nomination for their party without Iowa, in fact by either losing Iowa or not even competing in it.  Iowa is hardly a kingmaker.  

I think the nomination will come down to Giuliani and Romney.  I believe you are looking at false data, given the contentions you are making here.   If you go with the aggregates of the polls we have seen you get:

1. Giuliani comes in third in Iowa, but only by a smidgen behind Huckabee.  Problem for Huckabee is money, which Giuliani has a lot more of.  There is a better than even chance Giuliani comes in second in Iowa, behind Romney, who will more than likely win it.  

http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Rep-Pres-P rimary.php

2. NH:  Giuliani is in solid second place behind Romney.  Nobody is close, and McCain is actually faltering in NH, while Giuliani is on the rise:

http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Rep-Pres-P rimary.php

3. Giuliani leads in Nevada, but it is not a massive lead.   This will come down to Giuliani vs. Romney.  Nobody else is close:

http://www.pollster.com/08-NV-Rep-Pres-P rimary.php

4. Michigan:  Giuliani leads ahead of Romney.   Nobody else comes close.

http://www.pollster.com/08-MI-Rep-Pres-P rimary.php

5. South Carolina:   Giuliani leads in South Carolina, and the guy closest right now, Fred Thompson, will be an absolute non-factor by the time SC rolls around (perhaps already have bowed out,) so it will, once again come down to Giuliani vs. Romney.

http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Rep-Pres-P rimary.php

6. Florida: Shows Giuliani with a strong lead.  Romney is far behind.  

http://www.pollster.com/08-FL-Rep-Pres-P rimary.php

7. March 5 states:  Giuliani has a decent double-digit lead nationally, which gives him a leg up in the March 5 states.  

I think neither Huckabee nor Thompson will be factors in Iowa and South Carolina, respectively.  It will be between Romney and Giuliani in basically every single state, and Giuliani has a strong shot at it if he comes in second in both IA and NH, then wins one of the next 3 states before Florida and then March 5.    I probably give Romney a slightly better chance than Giuliani, but not by much.  Romney's national polling is way too low to give him a lot of confidence beyond IA and NH.  

I would be happy with either candidate, but with Romney we would have our dream candidate.


by georgep on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 07:48:01 PM EST

Dick Cheney is getting worried.... (none / 0)



For a "surge" in Truth:  Say NO to NeoCons!!!
by DerekLarsson on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 10:25:15 PM EST

Re: Is Giuliani really the GOP shoe-in nominee? (none / 0)

Hillary is competetive in all 4 of the first states.

Rudy is competitive in only ONE.

I find the prospect that he could lose 3 out of the first 4 contests and still be in it, baffling.


by rikyrah on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 10:26:06 PM EST


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