The latest UNH/Boston Globe poll of likely Democratic NH primary voters has been released and as teased on Friday, it shows a net drop in Clinton's lead over Obama of 9%. This follows on the heels of the Marist poll, which showed a 10% net drop since October and the Rasmussen poll, which showed a 6% net drop since October. It should be noted that in all three, Clinton still holds a double digit lead.
November 2-7, 400 likely D primary voters, MoE +/- 4.9%
| November | September | RCP 4-poll Ave. | |
| Clinton | 35 | 43 | 36.8 |
| Obama | 21 | 20 | 23.3 |
| Edwards | 15 | 12 | 13.5 |
| Richardson | 10 | 6 | 7.3 |
| Other | 8 | 7 | |
| Undecided | 8 | 11 |
Clinton still holds significant and largely unchanged leads on the experience and electability questions, but as for what has changed since the September poll, Obama has closed the gap on the "Able to bring change" question considerably, from a 36-24% Clinton advantage to now just a 31%-26% advantage, a net 7% gain for Obama. Also, while this question wasn't asked in September, so there's no trendline, the Clinton team has got to be worried about the responses to the "Who's most trustworthy" question in the November poll. Here Obama leads with 26% to Clinton's and Edwards's 19%. This is where the whole "double talk" narrative may have really hurt her.
Another intriguing result is that 73% of respondents say the candidates' initial position on Iraq will be very important or somewhat important to their vote. At the same time, Obama is tied with Clinton on the question of who's shown the best judgment. This suggests that Obama's "I was against the war from the start" message may be sinking in in New Hampshire, although the poll's analysis also concludes that voters don't hold Clinton's vote for Iraq against her.
But many voters clearly do not hold Clinton's war vote against her. Mo Landry, a 50-year-old public employee and Clinton supporter from Loudon, N.H., said she was not concerned about Clinton's vote for the war, because she had followed a similar trajectory herself: Landry backed the invasion but now wants to see US troops come home."I supported it at the beginning, too," Landry said. "Now that we've done it, it's time to go."
It should be noted that as Clinton drops, both Obama and Edwards are rising; in fact, this poll shows Edwards just 6% behind Obama, his best position relative to Obama yet. In general though, looking at all recent NH polls, it does appear that Edwards is not so much catching Obama as keeping up with him. We'll have to wait for another poll or 2 to see if this latest poll is indicative of a larger trend or an outlier on this question.
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