UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Continues To Erode

Bumped - Todd

The latest UNH/Boston Globe poll of likely Democratic NH primary voters has been released and as teased on Friday, it shows a net drop in Clinton's lead over Obama of 9%. This follows on the heels of the Marist poll, which showed a 10% net drop since October and the Rasmussen poll, which showed a 6% net drop since October. It should be noted that in all three, Clinton still holds a double digit lead.

November 2-7, 400 likely D primary voters, MoE +/- 4.9%

NovemberSeptemberRCP 4-poll Ave.
Clinton354336.8
Obama212023.3
Edwards151213.5
Richardson1067.3
Other87
Undecided811

Clinton still holds significant and largely unchanged leads on the experience and electability questions, but as for what has changed since the September poll, Obama has closed the gap on the "Able to bring change" question considerably, from a 36-24% Clinton advantage to now just a 31%-26% advantage, a net 7% gain for Obama. Also, while this question wasn't asked in September, so there's no trendline, the Clinton team has got to be worried about the responses to the "Who's most trustworthy" question in the November poll. Here Obama leads with 26% to Clinton's and Edwards's 19%. This is where the whole "double talk" narrative may have really hurt her.

Another intriguing result is that 73% of respondents say the candidates' initial position on Iraq will be very important or somewhat important to their vote. At the same time, Obama is tied with Clinton on the question of who's shown the best judgment. This suggests that Obama's "I was against the war from the start" message may be sinking in in New Hampshire, although the poll's analysis also concludes that voters don't hold Clinton's vote for Iraq against her.

But many voters clearly do not hold Clinton's war vote against her. Mo Landry, a 50-year-old public employee and Clinton supporter from Loudon, N.H., said she was not concerned about Clinton's vote for the war, because she had followed a similar trajectory herself: Landry backed the invasion but now wants to see US troops come home.

"I supported it at the beginning, too," Landry said. "Now that we've done it, it's time to go."

It should be noted that as Clinton drops, both Obama and Edwards are rising; in fact, this poll shows Edwards just 6% behind Obama, his best position relative to Obama yet. In general though, looking at all recent NH polls, it does appear that Edwards is not so much catching Obama as keeping up with him. We'll have to wait for another poll or 2 to see if this latest poll is indicative of a larger trend or an outlier on this question.



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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (none / 0)

Ladies and Gentlemen, looks like we may just have a race after all.


by Trowaman on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 02:21:17 PM EST

Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (none / 0)

did you notice obama didn't change , it was richardson that moved up , funny all the analysis by the poster was obama vs. clinton , obama didn't move at all , it was richardson that went up .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 04:00:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (none / 0)

hey! Edwards went up 3% too!


by Progressive America on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 04:02:45 PM EST
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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: (none / 0)

Edwards gained 3%, while Hillary dropped 8%. Edwards is gaining on both Obama and Hillary! What was previously a 31% margin over Edwards is now just 20%.


by Progressive America on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 04:02:15 PM EST

Just 6% away from Obama... (none / 0)

now for 2nd place! We have big mo!


by Progressive America on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 04:03:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

UNH/Boston Globe Poll (none / 0)

I think it's exciting that Edwards/Obama are coming on so strong as a result of their aggressive, negative campaigning. It makes the final stretch of the primary campaign much more exciting.

We will just have to see how the competition unfolds and how strongly Democratic primary voters respond to the Edwards/Obama charges of widespread Democratic Party corruption and neocon national security policy and to the Edwards/Obama vision for their Presidential leadership. Likewise, we will have to see how well voters respond to Clinton's message last night that she doesn't want to attack Democrats; she wants to attack the problems of the American people.


by hwc on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 04:23:31 PM EST

Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll (none / 0)

we are already seeing how they respond to people telling the truth.


by bruh21 on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 04:29:08 PM EST
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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll (none / 0)

if by telling the truth you mean...gaining points based on petty iessues like "did she leave a tip" or "did she plant a question"

Its kind of funny and kind of sad that after edwards and obama failed to gain traction on the issues, they had to rely on petty tabloid media reporting to  move up in the polls


by world dictator on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 05:21:35 PM EST
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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll (none / 0)

actually I was referencing her bush like tactics of planting questions in her audiences, inability to handle questions from an audience member without calling it a plant by a competing campaign, her tendency to double speak, her  inability to handle going off script, her positions on Iran, Iraq, trade, lobbying etc that are out of step with most Americans much less democratic voters who probably are only now paying attention to this and quite a few other things. I don't even know what you are referencing regarding the tip. I saw some diary about it, and ignored it because it seemed trivial. However the things I 've mentioned- such as being in touch with the average american voter, understanding where their values are on the issues, what's her vision, what's her character- these are all fair assessments about which to make a determination. Please feel free to spin however picking up some minor incident rather than the bigger trends.


by bruh21 on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 06:33:25 PM EST
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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll (none / 0)


I beleive you meant "fantasy".
by killjoy on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 06:29:31 PM EST
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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll (none / 0)

I believe as time has shown the only people engaging in fantasy are folks such as yourself. Ironically nearly everything I've predicted over the last few months that would happened in this campaign has so far started to happen. So please if makes you feel better keep trying to say its fantasy or unreal or whatever else you need to do to get through the day- but don't expect anyone paying attention to buy that.


by bruh21 on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 06:36:39 PM EST
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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll (none / 0)


Even the way your candidate has trailed in the polls, can't break 25%, and will collapse on January 3?
by killjoy on Tue Nov 13, 2007 at 12:38:55 AM EST
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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (none / 0)

call me when Obama/Edwards are within single digits


by world dictator on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 05:22:05 PM EST

Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (none / 0)

I'm afraid this poll doesn't indicate, statistically, that clinton's lead has shrunk, or edwards and obama have gained.  

The MOE is about 5%, plus or minus.  Therefore, there's no statistical difference between this poll, and the previous poll.  


by taxcuts4therich on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 05:28:17 PM EST

Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (none / 0)

You know it's bad when you have to start bringing in MOE.


by Progressive America on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 06:13:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (2.00 / 0)

my thoughts too. its not like this is the only poll, and quite frankly i am all for ignoring all the polls to focus on values, character and leadership BUT I am not for ignoring them simply because some supporter of hers doesn't like what they are telling us about the state of the race.


by bruh21 on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 06:34:52 PM EST
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Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (none / 0)

I'm an Edwards supporter.  I'm just stating a fact that anyone who took a statistics class knows.  With an MOE of plus or minus 5%, there's not statistically significant difference between this months poll, and last months poll.  From a statistical perspective, there's no strong evidence of a shift in support.

Believe me, I'd love to see a ten or 15% jump in Edwards support.


by taxcuts4therich on Sun Nov 11, 2007 at 07:42:29 PM EST

Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: Clinton's Lead In NH Co (none / 0)

this isn't the only poll, and  the point people are making is about trend lines not the accuracy of any one poll.


by bruh21 on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 01:06:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

She has some shoring up to do (none / 0)

The good news for her is she is still in solid double digits and Obama's support is staying stagnant.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 08:40:45 AM EST

Re: UNH/Boston Globe Poll: (none / 0)

She just needs to sto the bleeding.  We're still ahead, sunshines.  I admit, it is more of a race than it was- i mean, it wasn't before- but Obama has been coming on strong and is giving her a run for her money making it more of a real two-man race.  Edwards still has no chance- sorry.


by reasonwarrior on Mon Nov 12, 2007 at 02:54:53 PM EST


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