The Rothenberg Political Report's November 2 paper edition sums up the state of a potential Nebraska race featuring Scott Kleeb as the Democratic nominee as follows:
If [Omaha mayor Mike] Fahey passes (which is quite possible), party strategists may turn to '06 Congressional candidate Scott Kleeb, why drew 47% [sic] in an unsuccessful U.S. House bid last year. But Kleeb (pronounced "Kleb") would be a prohibitive underdog against either of the two big-name Republicans.
Would Kleeb really be a "prohibitive underdog" against former Governor/former U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns or state Attorney General Jon Bruning? Although one might think as much given the fact that George W. Bush carried Nebraska by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004, a deeper look at the race suggests otherwise.
Although on its face Nebraska is a Republican state, it has had a long history of election Democrats to the Senate (certainly unlike its seemingly less Republican neighbor to the South, Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since 1932). In fact only one Republican since 1972 -- Chuck Hagel -- has won a Senate election in Nebraska, a fact that underscores the state's historic willingness to support Democrats. More recently, during the 2006 midterm elections Democratic congressional candidates in Nebraska carried a respectable 43.9 percent of the statewide vote, significantly more than John Kerry's 33 percent share in the state in 2004.
More pertinently, in 2006 Kleeb managed to score a little more than 45 percent of the vote in Nebraska's third district in an open seat race, a feat made all the more impressive given the fact that the district is the sixth most Republican in the country, leaning about 24 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections (according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index). If you extrapolate Kleeb's 2006 showing relative to the Cook PVI statewide, he would have received about 54 percent -- more than enough to win a Senate election.
This, of course, is not to say that Kleeb would necessarily receive 54 percent of the vote in a 2008 Senate bid, should he make one. History is no determinant of the future. That said, Kleeb is a proven vote-getter, not only in a district significantly more Republican than the nation as a whole but in a district significantly more Republican than the whole state of Nebraska. And given that, I would not be quite so hasty in downgrading his chances in the event that he does make a run.
If you would like to see him jump in, head on over to the newly redesigned DraftKleeb.com to get involved.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 10 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
