MyDD :: NC-Sen: Baseline Polls Show Dole Is Vulnerable

NC-Sen: Baseline Polls Show Dole Is Vulnerable

by Todd Beeton, Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 05:15:11 PM EST

As the North Carolina senate race has come into focus with two Democrats having officially entered the race to challenge Elizabeth Dole next year, Public Policy Polling (D) has polled head to head match-ups with Senator Dole to see where the race starts out. They also gauged Dole's approval rating in the state. As you can see below, one year out from the election, Dole starts from a very weak position, unable to achieve 50% in either support or approval.

On Oct. 24, PPP released a poll of a head-to-head match-up between Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Chapel Hill businessman Jim Neal.

601 LVs, Oct. 22, MOE 3.95%

Dole 47
Neal 32

Dole Approval:

Approve 44
Disapprove 41

Once Democratic state senator Kay Hagan declared her intention to run for the Democratic nomination for senate as well, PPP wasted no time in going into the field to poll that match-up and released the results today.

795 LVs, Oct. 30, MOE 3.4%

Dole 46
Hagan 33

Dole Approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 36

These numbers indicate at the very least that we're going to have a race on her hands. As PPP's blog reminds us, Dole's approval is even lower than that of other Republican senators who are considered top tier targets, such as Gordon Smith (R-OR) and Norm Coleman (R-MN.) And indeed, an Oct. 23 Rasmussen poll has her losing to popular Democratic governor Mike Easley 51%-42% were he to enter the race.

As PPP says:

Obviously, Mike Easley would be the Democrats' best choice and any other Democrat would not perform that well. But if a majority of voters would already consider voting for someone other than the incumbent that's not good news for her.

But perhaps even more worrisome for Dole is the extent to which North Carolina voters are sounding less and less as though they live in a red state and more like the nation as a whole.

Look at these results from Rasmussen:

4) Presidential Matchups

Clinton 43 Giuliani 44
Clinton 44 Thompson 44
Clinton 43 McCain 43
Clinton 46 Romney 41

5) When it comes to the War in Iraq, should the United States withdraw all combat troops immediately, bring the combat troops home within a year, or stay until the mission is completed?

22% Withdraw all combat troops immediately
33% Bring combat troops home within a year
41% Stay until the mission is complete
4% Not sure

Look for this race to become top tier as the Democratic candidates expand their name ID leading up to the primary to determine who will face Senator Dole in November.

Tags: nc-sen, elizabeth dole, kay hagan, jim neal (all tags)

Permalink :: 6 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: NC-Sen: Baseline Polls Show Dole Is Vulnerable (none / 0)

I expect this race to be considerably more competitive than the Maine race.

by lorax on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 05:38:41 PM EST

Maine race (none / 0)

I think Allen is going to close out the Maine race in the end. The NC race is going to hinge on voters being tired of the Dole brand.

by Zeitgeist9000 on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 06:21:46 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: Baseline Polls Show Dole Is Vulnerable (none / 0)

PPP is a joke. There are several reasons to consider their polling the lowest form of "survey research".

1) Not only are they a partisan firm (which is not a big deal), they have repeatedly taken public shots against Senator Dole. This harms their credibility and their ability to obejectively poll the race. If they were hired as a strategist for a campaign, then it would be different. But a private polling firm openly critizing one of their test subjects calls into question any results they produce about her.

2) They are an IVR-firm, which are also less reliable than live-operator calls.

3) Their methodology is much different than any other polling firm. Every other firm I've heard of asks an initial ballot test presenting to the respondent the same information that's on the ballot: name and party ID. An example would be like this:

"As you know, North Carolina will be voting for a U.S. Senator next November. If the Election were held today, would you vote for Elizabeth Dole, Republican, or Kay Hagan, Democrat?"

In contrast, PPP asks their polls like this:

"As you may know, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole is running for re-election in 2008. She is running against two-term State Senator Kay Hagan. If the election were held today, who would you vote for?"

The difference is slight in wording, but everything in results. Giving any information other than what is on the ballot taints what is supposed to be the "uninformed ballot test", which are the numbers everyone reports.

PPP clearly has it out for Elizabeth Dole, and using their questionable surveys and cheap methodology, have managed to conduct a poll every month where they seek to validate their own opinions. In contrast, two live-poll firms in the last six months have placed Senator Dole's approval rating at significantly higher than 60%, and SurveyUSA in November placed it at higher than 50%. While I don't think that Dole's internals that have her at 60% are accurate, they are either as reliable or more reliable than PPP polling.

Since there are no other numbers availible, its hard to resist the temptation to use these numbers as a baseline. But the polling firm is simply not credible.

by Unabridged on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 06:30:16 PM EST

Re: NC-Sen: Baseline Polls Show Dole Is Vulnerable (none / 0)

Ugh. I really hope you're mistaken somewhere in here, but I suspect you're mostly dead on.

I place my hope in Dole's poor "buzz." I live in a conservative neighborhood in a liberal, working class town (Durham) in NC. My (entirely anecdotal) evidence is that conservatives are pretty uninspired by Dole, and the more wing-nutty, the less inspired. No one defends her when she comes up in conversation, even people who are still mildly defending Bush. (Most of that passion is gone, too.)

It wouldn't take a lot of voting no-shows to take Dole down, given a moderately viable opponent. That might be a tall task in a presidential election year, though.

North Carolina is hard to predict. Dole was barely able to beat the uninspiring Erskine Bowles. A strong challenger (Easley) would assuredly beat her.

I think Kay would fall somewhere between these two. Good luck to her.

by alteran on Fri Nov 02, 2007 at 10:17:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Baseline Polls Show Dole Is Vulnerable (none / 0)

Unabridged,

Read the poll question on the PDF link. It says nothing about Hagan being a two term state senator.

by KickinIt on Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 10:22:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-Sen: Baseline Polls Show Dole Is Vulnerable (none / 0)

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by Remy on Fri Feb 08, 2008 at 04:30:18 AM EST

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