I've been watching this race for going on a race with particular attention in the spring when Arlen Specter made a comment that many read to be an indication that his colleague Thad Cochran would not be seeking reelection this fall. Now according to The Hill's Manu Raju and Roxana Tiron chatter surrounding Cochran is only growing.

The senior Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, Thad Cochran, will soon announce whether he will retire from the upper chamber, a decision that could further shake up a powerful panel and even give Democrats hope of picking up a seat in the GOP stronghold of Mississippi.

Cochran says he will make an announcement after Mississippi's statewide elections, which are on Nov. 6.

When asked Tuesday if he would definitely run for reelection, Cochran told The Hill, "No, I didn't say that. I'm preparing to run for reelection, but I haven't made an official announcement."

[...]

But two sources in Washington, who are close to Cochran and declined to be named, say the senator may be leaning towards retirement because he has grown weary of the ongoing partisan battles on Capitol Hill.

Cochran has a decent amount of money in his campaign account. With about $1.1 million on hand, Cochran would have a solid base upon which to base a run for reelection. That said, Cochran raised just $44,000 in the third quarter, hardly the type of showing indicative of someone thinking of running for reelection. In fact, given Cochran's senior status in the appropriations panel it might have actually taken some effort to raise so little money between July and September.

If Cochran were to in fact retire, as apparently many believe he will, the Democrats have a fairly strong opportunity to pick up his seat or at least put it in play. Looking at the general partisan demographics of the state, George W. Bush carried Mississippi with about 60 percent of the vote in 2004. However in 2006 the Democrats managed to receive 46.1 percent of the two-party House vote in the state -- even though they only fielded candidates in three of the state's four districts. Yes, that's right. Democrats managed to come close to securing 50 percent of the statewide vote while only running in 75 percent of the state's districts, quite a feat indeed. What's more, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, the Democrats still hold a 74-seat to 47-seat majority in the state House and narrowly trail in the state Senate 27 seats to 25.

It's not only these underlying numbers that suggest the Democrats would be able to play in an open-seat Senate race in Mississippi. Former state Attorney General Mike Moore, who as recently as 2002 sported a 65 percent favorable rating in the state, is often mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, as is former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Moore, in particular, would be difficult to beat.

Anyway, it looks like we're going to have to wait another week or more to find out if Cochran is in fact going to retire. But suffice it to say that if he does it's going to be another major headache for the GOP.