If you're an incumbent Governor trailing your challenger by a double-digit margin less than a week out from election day, you probably would rather not see your numbers drop from the upper-30s to 40 percent to the mid-30s. But such is the case for Kentucky's Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher, who is polling way down in the mid-30s in two new polls matching him up against Democrat Steve Beshear.
| (R) | (D) | |
|---|---|---|
| Fletcher/ Rudolph | Beshear/ Mongiardo | |
| SurveyUSA 10/27-29 | 36 | 60 |
| Bluegrass Poll 10/26-29 | 33 | 56 |
| Research 2000 10/22-24 | 40 | 55 |
| SurveyUSA 10/19-21 | 38 | 58 |
| SurveyUSA 10/10 | 40 | 56 |
| 1-Month Average 10/10-10/29 | 37.4 | 57.0 |
| 6-Month Average 5/23-10/29 | 36.4 | 54.6 |
It really just isn't so good for an incumbent to average nearly 20 points down against his challenger. Something could happen between now and Tuesday, when Kentuckians go to the polls -- but it's not terribly likely at this point. What does remain to be seen, it seems, it whether the Democrats will get enough momentum out of this gubernatorial contest to make good on their very real potential to go after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell next fall.
| (R) | (D) | |
|---|---|---|
| Fletcher/ Rudolph | Beshear/ Mongiardo | |
| Insider Advantage (.doc) 9/24-25 | 35 | 45 |
| Bluegrass Poll 9/13-18 | 35 | 55 |
| Research 2000 9/10-13 | 39 | 56 |
| SurveyUSA 9/8-10 | 39 | 58 |
| SurveyUSA 8/4-6 | 37 | 58 |
| Lane Report 7/25-8/2 | 31 | 49 |
| SurveyUSA 7/14-16 | 36 | 59 |
| Insider Advantage 7/8-9 | 38 | 41 |
| Rasmussen Reports 5/24-25 | 35 | 51 |
| SurveyUSA 5/23-24 | 34 | 62 |
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