With the news today that Senator Pete Domenici would be retiring I'm hearing that the very political establishment of New Mexico is abuzz with the retirement of New Mexico's longest serving senator.
Jonathan has already done a great job highlighting some background and history of this and in fact Singer was one of the earliest bloggers highlighting Domenici's vulnerability.
Indeed his post from last week may have been almost too prescient...but let me follow-up on Singer's post earlier today about Drafting Tom Udall for US Senate.
Tom Udall is the only Democratic member of the New Mexico House delegation, has won statewide twice as Attorney General, and had $715,000 in the bank at the end of July. He's also a progressive legislator who opposed the War in Iraq and has a deep interest in solutions to the global warming crisis (see the video). He's also been my Congressman since 1999 (since moving to DC I continue to refer to him as my Congressman), kindly replacing the rather crazy person who preceded him who was from my hometown.
There's also something to keep in mind when looking at potential candidates for Senate that a statewide election can be a dangerous place to learn the campaign ropes. We see time and time again that first time candidates like Clark, Lamont, and others have an inherent and unavoidable campaigning learning curve that an experience and battle hardened political like Heather Wilson can mercilessly exploit, which is my concern about the Democrat currently in the race, first-time candidate (but I've heard a very nice guy) Don Wiviott.
Besides a potential senate candidate described with words like progressive, previous statewide winner, a family name respected across the West, starting with serious money in the bank, are all things I want to see in my next senator.
I Hope You'll Join Me in Donating to our Draft Tom Udall ActBlue Page.
We can send a Message to Tom Udall that US Senate is Big Enough for Two Udalls (but not three, go home Gordon Smith).
But beyond picking up the NM Senate seat and putting us one step closer to a 60-seat majority I would boldy suggest this retirement has the potential to turn the entire state of New Mexico solidly blue in one electoral swoop.
If all three of the serving House members of the New Mexico delegation run for the open US Senate seat we have a real opportunity to send an entirely Democratic delegation from New Mexico to Washington next January. Allow me to elaborate after the jump.
The big question is, does Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R-NM-01) run for the seat? She has been groomed as a Domenici successor for some time still it's hard to imagine that the US Attorney's scandal that helped seal his fate won't also damage hers.
Wilson has been heavily targeted in a highly competitive district since her first election and this year is no exception. If you're going to have a dogfight, might the appeal be in fighting for a US Senate seat? I understand that she's increased her statewide travel and has been traveling to the northern area and traditionally Democratic areas of the state (Udall's district). I will say this, Wilson certainly has an edge over everyone else in New Mexico in sheer experience of fighting and winning close campaigns.
Wilson leaving her seat to run for Senate would immediately swing this seat into the highly competitive toss-up category. Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich has a solid fundraising on ActBlue with $71,954 and raised $181,000 last quarter (no word yet on this quarter) and a new website (http://www.martinheinrich.com) with a regularly updated blog. He'd be a toss-up at worst in NM-01 which has a PVI of D+1.
The southernmost New Mexico Congressional District is held by Rep. Steve Pearce is the most Republican district in New Mexico with an R+6 PVI. Its long been wondered if Wilson ran for Domenici's seat if Pearce, a conservative Republican, would challenge her in the primary. GOP blogger Soren Dayton at Eyeon08 writes "The conventional wisdom is that Rep. Steven Pearce has some nasty negative on Wilson just in case a primary comes up." Should Pearce leave to engaged Wilson in what would be a nasty primary, we just happen to have a candidate in NM-02 named Bill McCamley who raised a considerable amount of money, $140,000, last quarter.
Finally, in my home district and currently represented by the esteemed Rep. Tom Udall (see above). Actually, my political experience is Northern NM politics is pretty limited so I have no idea how this race would shakeout if Udall ran for the Senate. But with a PVI of D+6 the only reason there was an R between Richardson and Udall was because of a unique set of circumstances that included a special election, a bad candidate, low turnout, and a green party candidacy that took 17% of the vote.
So if all three NM members of congress ran, we could have the potential to fill all three of their open seats with Democrats and turn the entire statewide delegation blue.
Other random NM things to watch out for:
Martin Chavez - Albuquerque Mayor has expressed interest in something statewide.
Patricia Madrid - Former Attorney General, NM-01 Congressional Candidate who lost to Heather Wilson in 2006, and the only major NM political figure I can think of off the top of my head to support John Edwards over homestate governor Bill Richardson.
Diane Denish - Currnet Lt. Governor is running for Governor in 2010 I believe.
The Wild Cards
David Iglesias - Former NM US Attorney fired in the scandal that eventually implicated Domenici and Wilson. I forget which district he lives in but should any of those congressional seats open up that or a Senate run could be a possibility.
He ran for Attorney General against Patricia Madrid in 1998 and came within 2 points of defeating her, 51 to 49, in an election no one expected to be that close. Given the level of publicity around the US Attorney scandal he would be the nightmare candidate for Heather Wilson to encounter in a Republican Primary, she'd have almost no defense.
Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame - recently moved to Santa Fe, New Mexico. I'm just saying.
Bill Richardson - How long can the Democratic Party can't go without a nominee to leave the door open for a potential Richardson campaign? With his fundraising levels he'll be around until at least February 5th, is that too long for the party to not have a candidate? Richardson would almost certainly win but watch Udall for this, he won't give up his seat if he thinks Richardson is a possibility and Udall's daughter is the deputy campaign manger for Richardson's Presidential Campaign.
Places to watch for New Mexico's political news in the coming days and weeks are the granddaddy of politcal blogging, Joe Monahan's website, the NM Soapblox blog NM FBI Hop, and Heath Haussamen.
This New Mexican is really excited about the possibilities.
On the Web:Draft Tom Udall.
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