KS-Sen: Slattery May Jump in Race This Week

Last night I wrote about the 2010 Kansas Senate race, which may feature popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius as the Democratic nominee. In the post I wrote that "the Democrats have a great chance of winning a Senate election in the state for the first time since 1932 (unless, of course, they are able to knock off Pat Roberts this cycle, which while difficult would not be impossible)" [emphasis added]. Well, the difficult could become slightly less difficult this week.

According to my sources, former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery is nearing a decision on a potential run against Republican Senator Pat Roberts in Kansas this cycle. Such a decision could come as early as this week.

Last month I did a little write up on Slattery's candidacy that included this brief overview of the environment:

Now I'm not under the delusion that this would be an easy win for Slattery. Sure, unweighted simple averaging shows that Kansas Democrats received about 49.6 percent of the statewide two-party vote for Congress last fall, winning two of four seats in the state. Sure, both Governor Sebelius and Paul Morrison, the Democratic nominee for Attorney General, both received about 58 percent of the vote last fall. But Kansas is a tough nut for any Democrat to crack, particularly in a presidential election.

That said, and I'm going without much knowledge of Slattery (where's my 1994 Almanac of American Politics when I need it...), but it would seem that he could at least give the Democrats a chance to play in Kansas, something they haven't done in a Senate election in the state in a long time. And though Kansas would probably stack up as the Democrats' 12th, 13th or 14th best pick-up opportunity in the Senate, such large swings have been seen in the past (the GOP most recently picked up 12 seats in 1980, the Democrats last picked up 13 seats in 1958).

While a month ago I didn't put Kansas in the top-10 pickup opportunities for the Democrats in 2008 with Slattery in the race, looking back it's possible that such a race could rank as high as 9 or 10 for the Democrats next fall, depending on how things shake out. Either way, it seems likely that the Democrats would have a better shot at picking up this seat with Slattery in than with Slattery not in.

For those interested in learning more about the former Congressman, head over to the Senate 2008 Guru for a very good and informative writeup.



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Re: KS-Sen: Slattery May Jump in Race This Week (none / 0)

DSCC has done a good job recruiting top tier/non sacrificial lamb candidates in long shot races. Alaska- Mark Begich Idaho- Larry LaRocco Kansas- Jim Slattery' Kentucky- Greg Stumbo Nebraska- Bob Kerrey South Carolina- Joe Ervin Tennessee- Mike McWherther
by nkpolitics on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 02:15:20 PM EST

Re: KS-Sen: Slattery May Jump in Race This Week (2.00 / 1)

Well, most of these are still uncertainties... but hopefully all will pan out, especially important ones like Kerrey and Begich.


by KainIIIC on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 02:36:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KS-Sen: Slattery May Jump in Race This Week (1.00 / 1)

If Jim Slattery's entrance makes Kansas top 9 or top 10 material, then that's a sad state of affairs for other races that have been mentioned on liberal blogs like this one.

After, I'm assuming, the big six (VA, NH, CO, ME, MN, and OR), you have Nebraska, and I'm guessing, Texas, Kentucky, and North Carolina. There's also plenty of talks on here about Alaska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and New Mexico. While its doubtful that these races will become truly competitive, to say that a guy who lost by 20 points statewide and hasn't been in Kansas for over a decade would move Kansas up to the top 10 against an entrenched incumbent like Pat Roberts is a serious indictment on the inflated optimism on the rest of the Senate races this year.

I would rank a Slattery/Roberts race behind even Oklahoma, Tennessee, and New Mexico. Hell, I'd put Slattery's chances at about the same as LaRocco's.


by Unabridged on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 03:02:09 PM EST

Re: KS-Sen: Slattery May Jump in Race This Week (none / 0)

I would put them better than LaRocco's.  As mentioned in the post, Democrats got 49.6% of the congressional vote winning 2/4 seats.  In Idaho Democrats recieved 41.6% of the congressional vote winning 0/2 seats.  

Nobody seems to cry harm or foul when Johanns is coming back to Nebraska from Washington to re-enter elected office.  I don't see why Slattery's case will be hurt.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 03:09:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KS-Sen: Slattery May Jump in Race This Week (2.00 / 1)

Slattery had a few things going against him in 1994.

For one thing, the incumbent Democratic governor (Joan Finney) was politically toxic at the time.  Second, as I've mentioned in another thread, insanely popular Senator Nancy Kassebaum appeared in a television ad where she endorsed Republican candidate Bill Graves.  (If that won't kill your campaign, nothing will.)


The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach
by Shocker Jim on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 05:17:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KS-Sen: Slattery May Jump in Race This Week (none / 0)

That's not the only news out of Kansas.

State Senator Donald Betts has announced plans to challenge Todd Tiahrt (R-lockstep with Bush) for the District 4 seat in the House.


The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach
by Shocker Jim on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 05:21:14 PM EST


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