Huckabee in the first tier for GOP

It's time to take Mike Huckabee serious. Rasmussen is going to start adding him to their daily tracking numbers tomorrow. They released a tracking poll on Friday that showed him moving into the first tier:

Giuliani     20
Thompson     19
Undecided    18
McCain       14
Huckabee     12
Romney       11
That would suggest that the GOP race is really amidst another shake-up, as the previous week's Rasmussen poll released last monday showed these results:
Giuliani     25
Thompson     19
Romney       15
McCain       12
Huckabee      8
The Huckabee surge over the past 3 months has been tracked by Rasmussen going from 0 to 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, and 8 last week. Tomorrow, Huckabee will be in double-digits and ahead of Romney nationally.

Huckabee's campaign seems much smarter than your average GOP campaign in their embrace of the web. In fact, though it's not that phenomenal platform-wise, you can see from their website and blog that their team understands how to engage their base of activists. Even though its theocons instead of progressives, it's simplicity reminds me of the use of the medium by Dean's campaign in '03.

Huckabee's blog has chosen Digg as their socnet platform to push content out to, has an impressive grassroots "bloggers for Huckabee" blogroll that they use the blog to grow, and has posts that are plausibly by the candidate. By all means, it appears like an online blogosphere[see godbloggers] has developed for Huckabee which the campaign is encouraging. The small-donor army of Christian donors brought into the GOP by Reagan and Robertson are what revolutionized direct-mail for the RNC in the 1980's, and it appears as though Huckabee is going to be the beneficiary of their finally becoming an internet donor force.

Update [2007-10-29 1:21:50 by Jerome Armstrong]:: The NYT's has a long piece out today on the evangelical movement and whether it's breaking apart, with Huckabee being the one that could hold it together?

“They finally have the soldier they have been waiting for, and they shouldn’t send me out into the battlefield without supplies,” Huckabee told me in exasperation. He argued that the movement’s leaders would “become irrelevant” if they started putting political viability or low taxes ahead of their principles about abortion and marriage.
It looks like theocon grassroots are ahead of their grasstops on going gaga for Huckabee.



Display:


Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

Democrats should fear Huckabee.  He's not affiliated with any scandals, can bring the "values voters" to the polls (they'll stay home otherwise), and he really isn't a bad guy and won't be easy to demonize.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 09:18:46 PM EST

Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

respect, but not fear. Huckabee would keep the the Club for Growth voters home. Do fear a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket, however. That would be scary with two authoritarians. And with all three legs of the stool in place, the election would be all about Hillary, as Scott Rasmussen says.
by mikelow1885 on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 09:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

Don't fear Huckabee-Giuliani, having the Huckster wouldn't work in that case.

See, Huck would buy credibility in the religious community for candidates who need a little "forgiveness".  

Romney flip-flopped on abourtion and is Mormon, but he's at least got the "right" position now, and Huck's a baptist
This scenerio= A. OK. with fundies.

McCain once called Fallwell and Robertson "agents of intolerance", having Huck would absolve him.

Thompson doesn't go to church, but he seems like a nice guy, maybe if he had a preaher as Vice President the church could come to him=problem solved!

However, Giuliani is the Twice-divorced estranged father who likes to wear women's clothes, flirt with Donald trump, and once called for PUBLIC FUNDING of abortions

Giuliani doesn't need Huck, he needs freakin' Billy Graham to be his VP.


by ArkansasLib on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 10:04:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No scandals? (2.00 / 1)

Didn't he pardon a serial murderer?


by BingoL on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 10:39:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No scandals? (2.00 / 2)

google wayne dumond. arkansas times has an in depth article. breid


by bob reid on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 08:05:17 AM EST
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Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

Scandal- well sort of- try Wayne Dumond. Look for Rudy and Mitt to go for the jugular.  


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:36:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (2.00 / 1)

Based on the past four hours, a link from the Huckabee blog (we got one for coverage of a Republican event on Iowa Independent) is probably worth about 1,000 visits.  Not quite Ron Paul numbers, but it's more than any other campaign blog that we have been linked by recently.

In contrast, about two months ago when we got linked by Huckabee's blog, it was worth little to nothing.


-- Iowa Independent
by chase martyn on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 09:20:22 PM EST

Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

I doubt that Huck will make it to the top, but I've had him pegged as VP for the GOP since the first debate.

I thought Romney would win the Presidency, but now I'm not so sure.


by ArkansasLib on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 09:20:52 PM EST

Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

Huckabee's campaign has made admirable progress with minimal funds, he might just be able to catch a wave yet:


After weeks of steadily rising numbers, he had just inched past former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. More popular than Romney! And all this love was turning into gold. Huckabee staffers were raising more money than ever. They even had to hire more people to answer the phones, the candidate said between songs, beaming at his audience.

Since Oct. 1, the campaign had raised more than $800,000 -- small change for some of the other candidates perhaps, but significant bucks for one who has had trouble breaking out of the second tier.

Louise Roug - LA Times 28 Oct 07

He is staying focussed on Iowa but getting national exposure from there.  While Undecided is in third place the race is still open.


by Shaun Appleby on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 09:23:06 PM EST

Huckabee Not Likely To Be Nominee (none / 0)

I do not see Huckabee getting the Republican nomination. Assuredly, he has some electoral appeal, and yes, he actually governed Arkansas with a certain amount of centrist moderation. But mark my words: "no new taxes" will be the mantra for Republican candidates in 2008. That mantra is the Republican party plan, and Huckabee at the top of the ticket would completely undermine that plan. Heck, the Club for Growth has taken out ads against him for his ostensible tax sins.  

Additionally, contrary to what some are suggesting, I do not think Huckabee is telegenic. Just the opposite: I think he appears wild eyed, and frankly, a bit scary in TV interviews. The camera does not like him. When you combine his wild eyed look with the off-key policies (a national consumption tax?), and intemperate remarks (abortion holocaust?) he often makes, I just don't see him getting the nomination.

The depth of the antipathy toward Huckabee in the "no taxes" wing of the Republican party can be seen in op/ed pieces like this one from last week's WSJ.


by Demo37 on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 09:52:41 PM EST

Re: Huck-mentum (none / 0)

Sure, there's movement toward Huckabee. And I think he could experience a dramatic final-week surge prior to the GOP Iowa caucuses given his own personal characteristics and the early 3-way nuclear  attack ad exchange likely between Romney, Giuliani, Thompson.  However, there's no plausible scenario in which Huckabee wins the nomination. He has as many ideological enemies as he does acolytes, and he flat -out does not have the money to compete. Lastly, Reagan notwithstanding, the nice-guy charisma that the media loves about Huckabee isn't nearly as appealing to the GOP base. Giuliani's and McCain's irascibility  is more their style.


by blueflorida on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 10:04:00 PM EST

Re: Huck-mentum (none / 0)

You paying attention to how much he's raised online in the past two weeks?


by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 10:18:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huck-mentum (none / 0)

sure, nearly $2 m in 3 weeks is nothing to laugh at but I feel confident in saying that his top four competitors have matched (or probably exceeded) that pace. The basic question is whether this is a temporary surge in Huckabee enthusiasm or if it is a fundamental shift in the GOP base's attention. Projected out, at best it gets him to a rough parity w/ Thompson (not Romney) in terms of television presence in the last 3 weeks prior to Iowa. It doesn't solve his political problems with key elements of the conservative base, or the fact that he doesn't have a ground organization to speak of. Ulimately, name the last insurgency built on a positive message and happy presentation that succeeded in GOP/conservative politics? It just doesn't happen...


by blueflorida on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:22:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huck-mentum (2.00 / 1)

Good point. The last one to come close was Alexander in '96. But Alexander came damn close, getting a solid 3rd in Iowa, and if he'd gotten a few more thousand votes in New Hampshire during in '96, to finish ahead of Dole, behind Buchanan's big win, Dole would have dropped out (said so himself) and it would have been Alexander being the nominee. Huckabee is this year's Alexander.


by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:54:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huck-mentum (none / 0)

disagree thier is a very plausable way for Huck to win, whomever is seen as the conservative alternative to Rudy will have a huge edge IF the race is a seen as a 2 way battle before Feb 5th.Why can't Huckabee win South Carolina if he wins Iowa? seems very plausable to me.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 10:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huck-mentum (none / 0)

I also dont think there is a plausible path to the nomination for Huckabee. If he finishes second in Iowa behind Romney, even a close second, how does he gain enough traction after still losing NH to winning South Carolina? And he definitely wont win Florida. Basically, he HAS to beat Romney in Iowa to get enough of a bounce to win in South Carolina. Even though, his incredibly poor fundraising would make it hard for him to go punch for punch with Rudy on Super Tuesday.
That said, I dont see him winning Iowa. Romney knows its do-or-die for him and he has too much money not to win. Huckabee's inability to raise money will haunt him; you can only spend so much time doing retail politics.
Also, I'm not terribly surprised by the poll's findings. It goes to show that if it ever becomes a "Rudy vs. conservative (Romney/McCain)" race, then Rudy probably will lose. He has a low ceiling and needs a fractured primary. Plus with Brownback out of the race, Huck figured to gain a few points as he is the only true social conservative left.
I still think only three people can win the nomination: Romney, Rudy, and McCain. A NH victory for McCain over Romney might make him the anti-Rudy which he could ride to victory. His funds are less of a problem because he already is so well-known. Romney could simply sweep the early states and have too much momentum (most likely scenario to me). Thompson and Huck just dont have enough traction.
by AC4508 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:17:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huck-mentum (none / 0)

if huckabee wins Iowa then a miracle will have already happened, and once God is involved all bets are off....


by blueflorida on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:25:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huck-mentum (none / 0)

Not appealing to the GOP base? Then how did he completely annihilate the rest of the field for in-person straw poll at the Value Voters Conference last week?

Also as Jerome mentioned, he's going to raise the same amount online in October as he raised from July-Sept. in total (a little over $1M). He's going to be the first candidate this cycle to do what Dean did in 2003 -- translate online fundraising into quantifiable gains in the polls.


Leftmost Bit
by Luigi Montanez on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 11:55:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

He does have enemies in the business community so thats a huge obstacle. He also has no foreign policy experience. Most importantly however, is the fact that he is a total nutjob on domestic issues.


by bsavage on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 10:31:17 PM EST

He's not scary (none / 0)

And that's what makes him so threatening. He's got wicked conservative credentials (well, on social issues at least), but he doesn't come across as angry. He's as conservative as a Sam Brownback, but comes across as a nice guy. He's also got a great story to tell with his weight loss, and how folks have to take responsibility...

He's certainly beatable, and I don't know that he's got the chance to move up fast enough, but he would certainly be an interesting candidate to face.


by Chris Shields on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 10:36:14 PM EST

I am a betting man (none / 0)

and a good bet right now is for Huckabee to win the GOP caucus in Iowa.  Then the money people in the GOP will try and take him out by supporting Rudy. That said in a low-tunout GOP primary race nationawide I'd take the less funded grassroots candidate against the business people. If Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney is mortally wounded and Fred Thompson's southern support goes to huck, if Rudy then wins NH the race will be seen as Huck v/s Rudy and Huck can easily win.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 10:38:31 PM EST

Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

Well at least the Republican race is looking to be interesting. Really there are five guys with some kind of shot at taking the nom. I would rate Huckabee as the least likely of those but he must have at least the same chance at winning the GOP nom as Edwards does of winning the Democratic one.


by Christopher Lib on Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 11:55:49 PM EST

Re: Huckabee in the first tier for GOP (none / 0)

Huckabee still has to knock out Thompson in the south. I know Thompson seems like a complete joke to anyone who has -- well, seen him speak for more than two seconds. But you could almost interpret his campaign strategy as one designed to keep Huckabee from winning. He is focusing his money and his (very limited) energies on a few Southern states where his name recognition and his absence of campaign appearances (ie no one will see just how bad he is) will get him a good chunk of the vote. Huckabee is also stubbornly running on issues like health care that are designed to split the grassroots conservatives between the anti-government die-hards and the ones who want some government help in hard times. And just to throw in my favourite quote on Huckabee from Ramesh Ponnuru, from the National Review: "He seems to combine some of Pat Buchanan's bad ideas with some of George W. Bush's. He's the protectionist compassionate conservative. No thanks."


by thesleepthief on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 08:54:47 AM EST


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