NH is not likely to respond well to negative campaigning.  They usually never do, why would this year be any different?  Besides, Clinton will have ads up as well.  I am sure they will be almost entirely positive, forward-looking ads about health care.  She might also have hard-hitting ads aimed at the GOP.  The contrast between HER ads and negative ads from others would be so stark, that you would most likely see an even stronger rallying around her in NH.  

I think it can still work a tad bit , i think there are still quite a few soft supporters who can pause on her because of negative campaigning especially in iowa or nh with independents.

I would say that negative advertising is very unlikely to work for several reasons:

1. Clinton supporters have already seen it all. I mean, what are they going to hit her with? That she murdered Vince Foster? That she has a lesbian relationship with Janet Reno? That she's a communist sympathizer?

2. Negative advertising, to be effective, has to hit at a real weakness. For example, the Howard Dean/Osama bin Ladin ads worked because Dean was a scary guy in the sense that he had zero national security experience and had moments of being slightly unglued. The Kerry flip/flopper ads worked because he was a flip/flopper. Where's Clinton's vulnerability? She's the only one of the top three who has already crossed the commander-in-chief threshold. Even voters who can't stand her acknowledge that she has the experience, toughness, and smarts to be President.

What might work in Iowa (because it's so backwards) is to hit her explicitly on the woman issue. After all, Iowa voters have show that they aren't ready to elect women. In a way, Clinton threw down the gauntlet on that one this week, effectively asking Iowans if they want to be viewed like Mississippi.

To make it work, Edwards and Obama will have to stop pussy-footing around with vague "electability" charges and just go for jugular with ads that say women are suited for the Oval Office. The problem is that, while that might work in Iowa, it will KILL them in New Hampshire and beyond.

Mark Penn sized up the race exquisitely on Charlie Rose last week. "How often do you see a majority -- women are 54% of the voters -- that has never elected one of their own. It's a powerful thing..."

We have seen several polls out of NH that showed Clinton picking up a lot of Obama's previous Independent support.  Independents especially have been moving away from Obama and towards Clinton, which, if it stays that way, would dash any hopes Obama has for New Hampshire.  

Todd Beeton had a frontpage diary about that Independent-flight away from Obama not too long ago, and if I remember correctly, it was specifically after a NH poll showed it.

There is an interaction between the GOP and DEM primaries in NH that does not exist elsewhere.

I know many people who believe McCain's strength in NH in 2000 drew people out of the Dem primary who would have voted for Bradley.

What makes this even more complicated it that this is a rather unusual year on the GOP side.  Guiliani's lead is the smallest of any front runner on the GOP side since 1976.  

In fact, I think you can argue this is the most wide open race for the GOP nomination since 1948 or 1952.

New Hampshire does not have an open primary in which Republicans may choose to vote in the Democratic Presidential Primary.  Only Democrats and "Undeclared" voters, who declare themselves Democrats on the day of the Primary or before the Primary date, may vote in the Democratic Primary.  Among those "Undeclared" voters, also called "Independents," Senate Clinton is doing very well in the polling so far.

The Tood Beeton diary specifically discussing the Independent flight away from Obama dates back at least 4 weeks ago.  

Look, this is a very large lead.  Anytime a candidate is in the lead by 20s and more, and the lead is confirmed by other polls, you have a massive lead.  We can discuss this or that, where is the youth vote going to go (indications are, strongly towards Hillary Clinton) what happens with GOPers who want to cross over, is there an undiscovered "cell phone only" contingent that can't be caught by polls, how about women who never voted in their lifes going strongly for Clinton, are they captured, etc.   All of that is nibbling at the fringes when you have leads this large.  

Where? Nationally? or in NH? Nationally some polls do indicate dead heat, and also in PA and NJ. I have not seen any NH polls between Hillary and any of the GOP candidates.

NH is going Dem for a very long time. I believe Judd Gregg will loose in 2010 especially if Benson runs. One mistake in Rothenberg's article: Huckabee is Arkansas governor not Alabama governor.