Red State Dem Govs Look Strong for 2010 Senate Runs

Well, there's no better time than right after the end of a fundraising quarter when we have a second to breathe before the coming quarter's fundraising blitz begins to look ahead for a brief moment to the next cycle. I've already noted just how good Arizona's popular Democratic Governor, Janet Napolitano, looks in relation to Republican Senator John McCain, who is up for reelection in 2010. Now I'd like to focus on a couple of even redder states -- Kansas and Oklahoma -- where the Democrats may have real shots of victory in 2010.

In Kansas, with Republican Senator Sam Brownback is expected to retire as promised at the end of the next cycle, the Democrats have a great chance of winning a Senate election in the state for the first time since 1932 (unless, of course, they are able to knock off Pat Roberts this cycle, which while difficult would not be impossible). The Democrats have been resurgent in the state, winning not only a second consecutive gubernatorial election last fall but also picking up the Attorney General position by a wide margin as well. So who better, then, than Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius to run for Senate next cycle? According to SurveyUSA polling from September, Sebelius' approval spread is 68 positive/27 negative, with even more conservatives and Republicans approving than disapproving of the job she is doing. While these numbers might come down during the course of a competitive campaign, the fact remains that Sebelius would be quite the formidable candidate, particularly in an open seat race.

Just to the South of Kansas, Democrats also have the possibility of winning their first senatorial election since 1990 in Oklahoma (again, unless the Democrats can knock off Jim Inhofe this cycle, which is a distinct possibility). Freshman Republican Senator Tom Coburn isn't terribly well-liked as a result of his, well, unorthodox and extreme right positions, and is as such potentially vulnerable next cycle. For a Democratic challenger to go up against Coburn one need look no further than Democratic Governor Brad Henry, who won reelection over Republican Congressman Ernest Istook by a remarkable 2-to-1 margin last fall. According to SurveyUSA polling, Henry is even more popular in Oklahoma than Sebelius is in Kansas, with an approval rating of 75 percent and a disapproval rating of just 21 percent. Even 72 percent of Republicans and 74 percent of conservatives give him high marks.

While neither Sebelius nor Henry would be among the most progressive members of the Senate -- in fact they'd likely be among the most conservative Democrats in the chamber -- victories by the two of them, as well as a win by Napolitano in Arizona, could help put the Democrats in a position to really make a difference legislatively with a majority of 60 seats or even more. At the least, the three red state Governors would provide a serious buffer against any blowback the Democrats might see in 2010 should they in fact win the presidency and hold on to Congress next fall.



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Re: Red State Dem Govs Look Strong for 2010 Senate (none / 0)

Are Sebelius and Henry term-limited?  They're quite useful in their present jobs, after all.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 04:37:49 PM EST

Re: Red State Dem Govs Look Strong for 2010 Senate (none / 0)

As Kansas governor, Kathleen Sebelius is limited to two consecutive terms.  Unless the law has changed, she would be allowed to run again later.

After sitting out the 1986 election, John Carlin ran again in 1990.  (He lost in the Democratic primary to Joan Finney.)


The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach
by Shocker Jim on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 02:13:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The good news is that Janet won't be (none / 0)

that conservative.  You cannot even begin to compare OK and KS to AZ.  As different as night and day.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 04:45:57 PM EST

I really like Napolitano (none / 0)

and she would be a strong advocate for clean elections reform at the federal level.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 05:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Red State Dem Govs Look Strong for 2010 Senate (none / 0)

Brad Henry is out in 2010 due to term limits.  He would have a very good shot at winning a senate seat.  He knows how to speak Okie politics, and won the governership by keeping his nose out of the ballot issue to ban cockfighting, which the southeastern part of the state loathed.  This was a big reason he beat the religious right's Golden Boy Steve Largent.


by bubbaokie on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 05:19:02 PM EST

Re: Red State Dem Govs Look Strong for 2010 Senate (none / 0)

Largent is a fundie?


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 05:21:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Red State Dem Govs Look Strong for 2010 Senate (none / 0)

As religious of a wingnut as they come.


by bubbaokie on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 05:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Red State Dem Govs Look Strong for 2010 Senate (none / 0)

Only if Republicans control the WH. Not if Hillary is the President.


by Boilermaker on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:48:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sebelius is very impressive (none / 0)

I would love to see her in the Senate, and possibly even running for president someday.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 05:19:33 PM EST

Re: Sebelius is very impressive (none / 0)

yet Hillary is too conservative for ya?

Sebelius would no doubt be WAY to the right of HRC.  I'm sorry, buit I'd have to say "no" to any Kansasan running for prez.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 06:34:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sebelius is very impressive (none / 0)

Boyda for Prez!  Oh wait...


by frankies on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 06:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yay, Red State Governors! (none / 0)

I'd like to see Sebelius on the ticket with Clinton.

But the collected testosterone of two white males on the Republican ticket would immediately overpower them.

So seeing Sebelius in the Senate would be my second choice!

I guess Freudenthal in Wyoming will be the Secretary of the Interior....

Schweitzer will be--Schweitzer.


by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 05:35:31 PM EST

Look south (2.00 / 1)

We've got Easley in NC (out in 08) to run against Burr. And, in Kentucky, Congressman Ben Chandler will almost assuredly run for Jim Bunning's seat and win, whether Bunning retires or not.

I think 2010 is southern Dems first real chance to make up the headway we lost from 1994 to 2004. And though the above names may be more "conservative," than their northeastern counterparts, they are a VAST improvement over the old southern dixiecrats who represented Dems in the South for so long.


by faithfull on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 05:59:05 PM EST

forget it... (none / 0)

I meant to delete that, not post it.


by faithfull on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 05:59:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look south (none / 0)

It would be great if we could pick up some of these southern seats, but unless we pick up the less conservative seats in the north and west we're still going to run into big problems getting things done. Don't assume that just because we've got 60 seats that we'd always be able to proceed past a filibuster. We need as many progressives, liberals and moderates (the real kind not the faux kind) as possible to be able to get things done. Southern seats are great, but we need to replace republican 'moderates' with good progressive democrats in the north and west too.


by Quinton on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 01:27:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Red State Dem Govs (none / 0)

Kathleen Sebelius would make an excellent Treasury Secretary.


by Adam T on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 06:13:58 PM EST

Re: Red State Dem Govs Look Strong for 2010 Senate (none / 0)

This was a great post, very heartening. However I think the big obstacle may be their perceptions about presidential viability. There is nothing to destroy the glow that surrounds a popular governor or former governor like a few tough Senate votes, especially since there will be legislation the Democrats will push for that may not be popular in southern states (think Oklahoma and the environment). Mark Warner seems to have calculated that in this day and age governors need the national/international experience the Senate gives them, so hopefully that will be seen as an adequate counter-balance.


by thesleepthief on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 06:25:13 PM EST


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