Well, there's no better time than right after the end of a fundraising quarter when we have a second to breathe before the coming quarter's fundraising blitz begins to look ahead for a brief moment to the next cycle. I've already noted just how good Arizona's popular Democratic Governor, Janet Napolitano, looks in relation to Republican Senator John McCain, who is up for reelection in 2010. Now I'd like to focus on a couple of even redder states -- Kansas and Oklahoma -- where the Democrats may have real shots of victory in 2010.
In Kansas, with Republican Senator Sam Brownback is expected to retire as promised at the end of the next cycle, the Democrats have a great chance of winning a Senate election in the state for the first time since 1932 (unless, of course, they are able to knock off Pat Roberts this cycle, which while difficult would not be impossible). The Democrats have been resurgent in the state, winning not only a second consecutive gubernatorial election last fall but also picking up the Attorney General position by a wide margin as well. So who better, then, than Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius to run for Senate next cycle? According to SurveyUSA polling from September, Sebelius' approval spread is 68 positive/27 negative, with even more conservatives and Republicans approving than disapproving of the job she is doing. While these numbers might come down during the course of a competitive campaign, the fact remains that Sebelius would be quite the formidable candidate, particularly in an open seat race.
Just to the South of Kansas, Democrats also have the possibility of winning their first senatorial election since 1990 in Oklahoma (again, unless the Democrats can knock off Jim Inhofe this cycle, which is a distinct possibility). Freshman Republican Senator Tom Coburn isn't terribly well-liked as a result of his, well, unorthodox and extreme right positions, and is as such potentially vulnerable next cycle. For a Democratic challenger to go up against Coburn one need look no further than Democratic Governor Brad Henry, who won reelection over Republican Congressman Ernest Istook by a remarkable 2-to-1 margin last fall. According to SurveyUSA polling, Henry is even more popular in Oklahoma than Sebelius is in Kansas, with an approval rating of 75 percent and a disapproval rating of just 21 percent. Even 72 percent of Republicans and 74 percent of conservatives give him high marks.
While neither Sebelius nor Henry would be among the most progressive members of the Senate -- in fact they'd likely be among the most conservative Democrats in the chamber -- victories by the two of them, as well as a win by Napolitano in Arizona, could help put the Democrats in a position to really make a difference legislatively with a majority of 60 seats or even more. At the least, the three red state Governors would provide a serious buffer against any blowback the Democrats might see in 2010 should they in fact win the presidency and hold on to Congress next fall.
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