| Candidate | October | RCP 4-poll Ave. |
| Clinton | 33 | 28.2 |
| Edwards | 22 | 21.5 |
| Obama | 21 | 23.8 |
| Richardson | 9 | 9.3 |
This is the first poll out of Iowa that divides the top three candidates into two distinct tiers, making it harder to claim Iowa is a three-way tie. Rasmussen does make a point of warning of the continued fluidity of the race, however.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Clinton supporters say they are certain they will vote for her. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Edwards’ supporters say the same about him and 48% of Obama’s voters are that confident. Given the high numbers of voters who say they could change their mind, the race in Iowa remains very fluid.
What would be helpful is to know who the second place choices of respondents are. At The Huffington Post, Donnie Fowler claims confidently that "Obama reportedly has a substantial lead in the 'Who's your second choice?' category" in Iowa but provides no link to evidence of this. Second place choices are especially important in Iowa because of how the caucus works (read Desmoinesdem for more on that.)
For those who might wonder about Rasmussen's methodology, this is the only hint they give outside of the subscription-only firewall:
All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Clinton in the lead with Edwards and Obama close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Clinton with 33% of the vote and an eleven point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Clinton attracts 31% support and leads by eight. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.
It should be noted that this poll was taken before Edwards's big SEIU endorsement announcement on Monday and before Edwards has aired one ad in the state. One has to wonder, now more than ever, what he's waiting for.
Update [2007-10-17 14:13:8 by Todd Beeton]: lori in the comments has the link to Rasmussen's Iowa caucus screen.
Overall, the sample for Democrats represents approximately 15% of Iowa’s voting age population. The tightest screening model we used represents approximately 7% of the voting age population. [...]For both the Democratic and the Republican samples, the very tightest screening model showed the frontrunner with a modestly smaller lead than in the overall sample.
As part of the overall study, we also asked some people who were screened out of the final sample their preference. When looking at a slightly larger pool of voters, we again saw the same overall dynamic in both the Republican and Democratic campaigns.
The final sample of 1007 Likely Democratic Caucus Participants was 51% female and 49% male. Sixty-eight percent (68%) were over 50 and 8% under 30. Forty-nine percent (49%) say they are politically liberal while 31% describe themselves as moderate. Ten percent (10%) describe themselves as Evangelical Christians. Sixty-six percent (66%) are married and 22% have children living at home.
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