Yeah it popped up in my mailbox in a newsletter. It shows she is moving up  in Iowa , not really far off from the dmr poll.

This is the interesting part , they polled for those that will absolutely vote and she still leads , she has come a long way in Iowa.

" All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases--Clinton in the lead with Edwards and Obama close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Clinton with 33% of the vote and an eleven point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Clinton attracts 31% support and leads by eight."

Yeah but it is tough to really know what is going on in Iowa , its favorable for her but I still think it is not hard to see Edwards pulling it off.

But yeah positive news for her.

For most of the year Hillary's national number is 10 points higher than her NH number, and 20 points higher than her Iowa number.

There are two reasons:

1. Iowa and NH have easy access to all the candidates, tend to support the fringe candidates (like Richardsona and Biden) more strongly, and decide late.

2. Iowa and NH are nearly 100% white. A big part of Clinton's base includes African Americans and Latino/a and Asian American voters. This is offset in the positive direction by support for women in politics in New Hampshire and in a negative direction by the fact that Iowans traditionally wouldn't elect a woman to be head of the woman's auxilliary.

You're partly true. But based on my observations, it will take a few weeks for state polls to reflect national trend. I saw it happening in IA and NH. When she polled 40s nationally, it took a while for NH poll to completely catch up. So it will be interesting to see how the next batch of NH polls in a few weeks.

IA is much tough. But if she polls consistently above 50 nationally, she'll probably crack 35 points in IA.

Those are amazing numbers and very important because the mainstream media loves to pick a winner. The perception that a Democrat will win will affect their reporting.

You're assuming somehow that people aren't exposed to the race at all.  Actually, it's been going on for most of the year and average people do have an impression of the major candidates.  They are well known people at this point, and people have a sense of what they stand for.

The way people lean is a pretty good predictor of who they'll support eventually.    It's not an accident that the numbers in early primary states (NH, SC, FL) match up quite closely to those in national polling.

Only Iowa is a bit aberrant- and that mostly because the caucus system is a rigging that favors activists and 'bosses'.  Edwards has spent two or three years trying to get it to favor him on some magical theory about how Kerry won the nomination there.  

Despite all his time and effort, he only runs 10% better with Iowa caucusgoers than in national polling, and is keeping Clinton down 10%...and yet she's that same margin ahead and might be able to pull away.

Actually only Hillary and Obama have run ads in Iowa. Edwards has not. Hill and Obama have spent upwards of 5 million so far on TV ads.

How do you explain NH poll then? To believe voters are living in vacuum is just ridiculous.

One-state strategy won't help Edwards/Obama win this thing.

We'll see who has what Jan. 3rd.  

The average bounce out of Iowa is 15%.  That includes a lot of instances where most candidates are largely unknowns and cycles in which Democrats were very unhappy with their choices, could not decide between "bad" and "worse."   Even if someone other than Clinton wins Iowa, the bounce should be limited.   These candidates are very well known, the preferences have hardened and solidified by January.  I don't see a strong case for Obama here, unless he can "clean up," win by a surprisingly huge margin (say, 12%.)