The new CNN national primary poll shows two different dynamics at play in the two parties' primaries. On the Democratic side, Clinton rises above 50% for the first time in this poll, going from a 23% lead over Obama in September to a 30% lead today and expanding the distance between 1st and 4th place to 47%. While Giuliani is still ahead among the Republicans and actually expands his lead by 7% thanks to a plummeting Thompson, the Republican field is much more compact, with the top four candidates all within 14% of each other.
First the Democrats:
(485 RVs, Oct. 12-14, MOE 4.5%)
Candidate October September RCP 5-poll Ave. Clinton 51 46 48.2 Obama 21 23 20.4 Edwards 15 16 12.6 Richardson 4 5 3.6
It's not insignificant, of course, that this is now the third poll in a week to show Clinton at or above 50% (as Mark Blumenthal says, that ABC/WaPo poll is an outlier no more.) Looking at the candidates' performance in relation to their recent averages, Clinton and Edwards appear to be rising and Obama looks stalled. Looking over a longer period, however, it's evident that Clinton is the only candidate who can really claim any longterm growth as Obama, Edwards and Richardson have all been at or above their current standing in national primary polling earlier this year, namely in early September; the CNN poll marks Clinton's second highest poll result of the year.
The Republicans:
(374 RVs, Oct. 12-14, MOE 5%)This result is perhaps most notable for Fred Thompson's 8 point fall, although that may just be a correction from an outlying result from September, which showed Thompson within 1 point of Giuliani. But even more intriguing is McCain's virtual tie with Thompson for second place, which runs counter to all conventional wisdom about McCain's and Thompson's respective viabilities. It also draws attention to the gap that sometimes exists between actual popularity (as measured in polls) and perceived popularity, as projected in the media. The storyline of McCain's fall has been fairly persistent, except for some reports of a gradual resurgence in New Hampshire, and his fundraising reflects this. Marc Ambinder reported earlier today that McCain's campaign is essentially bankrupt.
Candidate October September RCP 5-poll Ave. Giuliani 27 28 28.2 Thompson 19 27 18.4 McCain 17 15 13.2 Romney 13 11 12.4
One notable result from the poll, and one that should be somewhat worrying for the Clinton campaign, is that Clinton beats Giuliani in a head to head match-up by only 2 points, 49%-47% (essentially a tie) whereas a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican 52%-39%. If this gap between Clinton's polled performance against Giuliani and that of a generic Dem is an indicator of a larger trend, this could signify a downside to a Clinton candidacy against Giuliani in particular. It also could signal a weakening on her part in the general, especially in light of this chart from Bowers that shows she'd achieved a minimum advantage of 3 points over Rudy since August, but that's too early to tell from just this poll. Interestingly, Al Gore performs better against Giuliani than Clinton does, 52%-46%.
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