The results of a new Washington Post poll (1,144 adults, incl. 993 RVs, Oct. 4-8, MOE 3%) out of Virginia provides the best evidence yet that this traditionally red state is shifting blue.
In the race for senate, while the Rasmussen Poll from a month ago showed Mark Warner with a lead against his most likely Republican rivals, former governor Jim Gilmore and Congressman Tom Davis, of 20% or higher, WaPo actually finds Warner is ahead by 30% or above.
Warner leads Gilmore 61 percent to 31 percent, a 2 to 1 margin replicated in nearly every region of the state. Warner leads Davis 63 percent to 28 percent.
In touting his own potential to beat Warner, Davis likes to say he has plenty of room to grow as only part of the state, his own district in northern Virginia, really knows him. But remarkably, even among his own constituents, Davis doesn't fare much better against Warner.
In vote-rich Fairfax County, where Davis argues that he would have more appeal than some recent statewide GOP candidates, Warner is up by 24 percentage points over the congressman (57 percent to 33 percent).
Warner's appeal against these potential Republican rivals is explained by his 67% favorability rating, which is remarkably consistent across party lines.
More than 7 in 10 Democrats have a favorable impression of the former governor, as do 69 percent of independents and 61 percent of the state's Republicans.
The senate race should become a bit clearer on Friday when the 84-member Republican State Central Committee decides whether to hold a convention or primary in June, 2008 to determine who the Republican senate nominee will be. The WaPo article suggests that Davis would benefit from a primary (versus a convention where several thousand GOP activists meet to decide the nominee) and in fact the impending decision by the committee may actually be the determining factor in whether Davis ultimately gets in the race.
Perhaps the most interesting result to come out of the WaPo poll, though, is this throw away line from the third paragraph, which goes unaccompanied by an actual numerical result (I assume it will be forthcoming tomorrow with the official release of the poll):
The Senate race will unfold against the backdrop of next year's presidential campaign, and the poll suggests that the state's 13 electoral votes could be up for grabs. By a margin of 11 percentage points, Virginians would prefer that the next president be a Democrat, indicating that even a reliably red state could flip in 2008.
Bush won the state by 8% in 2004.
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