MyDD :: A Rift in the GOP?

A Rift in the GOP?

by Jonathan Singer, Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 12:22:10 PM EST

Did the Republicans debate last night foreshadow some problems for the GOP?

Paul and Tancredo said they would not necessarily support the GOP nominee. That is interesting. Does this feeling persist within the Republican Party?

The folks at NBC's First Read note the significance of this interchange.

[T]here was the waffling by Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo at the GOP debate about whether they'd support the eventual GOP nominee. Remember, it wouldn't take more than a percentage or two in some states for a third party candidate like Paul or Tancredo to cost the GOP a whole bunch of Bush '04 states out West.

I don't necessarily see either Paul or Tancredo running as third party candidates in next year's general election, but that doesn't mitigate the Republicans' problems at the least. Even if neither of them run -- even if neither of them support third party candidates -- they could still work to depress the Republican vote in some key areas of the country by simply withholding their own support.

And as the First Read folks imply, it wouldn't take a whole lot of Bush voters not voting for the 2008 GOP presidential nominee to have a real affect upon some key states. They mention states in the West -- probably Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, all of which were extremely close in 2004 -- but a lack of unified Republican support in states like Iowa and Ohio and even Virginia and Arkansas could spell real trouble for GOP hopes of holding on to the White House for another four years.

Tags: Republicans, 2008 (all tags)

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Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

Will Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich support the Democratic nominee?

Honestly, Gravel is so weird I'm not sure he'd support the Democratic nominee even if it was himself.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 12:30:12 PM EST

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

The difference is that Gravel's support in the entire US is approximately 139 people, plus or minus 215.

Tancredo is a single-issue nut job who has a legion of intensely passionate devotees.

I would love to see Paul on the Libertarian ticket...all these GOP debates are giving him great visibility. Tancredo as the head, drafted or not, of an anti-immigration party would be the cherry on the cake.

by InigoMontoya on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 01:43:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

Kucinich is probably a better analogy, but I had to throw Gravel in there as well.

Seriously, will Kucinich - the Democrat who voted against the S-CHIP expansion because it wasn't perfect enough - necessarily support the Democratic nominee? If not, then I'm not sure there's a bigger rift in the GOP than there is in our own tent.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 02:40:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

People who would not support the Democratic nominee in favor of Kucinich or someone like him are the same folks who saw no difference between Gore and Bush.

They exist. I hope this time their impact is less than in 2000. One would think that seven years of Bush would be enough to convince anyone of the hyperbole of Gore = Bush, but I see enough anti-Hillary screeds to know that it hasn't been.

Personally, I'll vote for any of the top 5-6 Democratic contenders in the general election. And I really don't have to worry about Gravel or Kucinich winning the nomination, so I sleep peacefully. (I guess in reality what it means is that I'll vote for either Hillary or Obama; JRE now has only slightly more chance of getting the nomination than I do of being the next Pope.)

by InigoMontoya on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 02:50:07 PM EST
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Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

Has Kucinich ever not supported the Democratic nominee?

I would love to see Ron Paul be the Libertarian nominee. 31% of Republicans disapprove of the way Bush is handling the war in Iraq (http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm) so I'd have to figure some of them would vote for an anti-war alternative.

That doesn't line up with the Dobson crowd though. If he's recruiting someone, it's going to be a bible thumper of some sort, not a social progressive. Dobson could run himself. Heck, let em all run.

by davefordemocracy on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 02:57:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Paul (none / 0)

I could see Ron Paul as a Libertarian and picking up 2-4% of the vote in 2008.

McCain/Palin: Old and inexperienced

by cspanjunkie on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 12:44:02 PM EST

Re: Paul (none / 0)

I saw a Ron Paul for Prez t-shirt in downtown Chicago yesterday.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 04:57:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

there's a ron paul revolution banner... (2.00 / 1)

if you want to call a painted bedsheet a banner, at the corner of cicero and volmer, as well. i was shocked -- if it's still there next time i go past, i'll try to take a pic...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 08:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

IMO that was the most significant moment of the debate. Obviously the feeling "persists" in the party (see Dobson, Viguerie, etc.), and now the widening rifts in the GOP are a topic for the debates as well.

by tparty on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 12:55:11 PM EST

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

let's hope TT opens his big mouth and throws CO firmly into our grasp.

by zappatero on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 01:34:49 PM EST

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/04/opinio n/04dobson.html?_r=2&oref=slogin& ;oref=slogin

According to the Times, Dobson is one step from actually shopping for a candidate if Romney or Guiliani get the nomination. Tancredo, Paul, or even a draft like Brownback would cause immense damage to the GOP GOTV in the South if Dobson and his allied groups and ministries push a 3rd party candidate.

by dexf on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 02:22:46 PM EST

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

The Christian Right is making noises that they won't support anyone pro-choice and may launch a third party candidate. Doncha love it. Where are those locked step Reapers? Reapers, as in grim reapers is my new name for Republicans until they stop calling us the Democrat Party. We got it already -- Democrat sounds like rat but its the Reapers who have eaten up our economy, our surplus and our prestige in the world and if we don't put in a Democrat in 08 they will eat up our future too.

by changehorses08 on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 03:00:11 PM EST

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

Huckabee. He's a fundamentalist minister. Dobson would pick him.

I just hope he's not the GOP nominee. He looks too good on TV and can marshal the wing nut support.

by antiHyde on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 06:31:12 PM EST

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

But a critical wing will not --

From the minuteman caucus perspective, Huckabee is worse than Guiliani.

I'm really trying not to get too giddy about it, but every single GOP candidate has a significant downside for one of the GOP's base factions.

Were I a GOP strategist, I would quit fantasizing about some white knight candidate that would be acceptable to everyone, or even which candidate scores as the "least unacceptable" across the board and start seriously thinking about which faction is least likely to bolt in large in numbers. For a change, it's really the GOP that's almost forced into that triple bank shot.

Ironically, the candidate that they seem to be trying to coalesce around as the "most electable" is the one LEAST acceptable to the MOST factions!

The closest thing to a perfect candidate to their base is probably Tancredo -- strongly pro-life, minuteman darling, 9/11 whore ("bomb Mecca"), and I assume he has high marks from the NRA... I'm betting he's not the corporatist's favorite (probably by a big margin) -- they don't have the primary votes, but they do control the money -- and any rational Republican knows he'd probably get 30% in the general.

They're truly screwed -- unless their coalition turns into a suicide pact cult and demands a Trancredo, they're gonna be stuck with someone large swaths aren't likely to vote for.

by zonk on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 07:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

Your analysis is right on the money, but they won't do anything rational.

by antiHyde on Fri Oct 12, 2007 at 09:50:52 PM EST
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Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

I gotta imagine that if Paul wants the Libertarian Party nomination, it's his. He was their nominee in '88, and libertarians are very excited about his primary campaign.

by Satori on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 07:09:13 PM EST

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (2.00 / 1)

Ron Paul has said repeatedly that he has no intention of pursuing a third party bid. His supporters might argue that he has a moral imperative to run, though, if the nominees are Giuliani and Clinton.

Don't be so sure about which side he would draw more votes from, however. He's a lot better anti-war candidate than Clinton, and a lot better on civil liberties and reining in presidential power. Compared to Giuliani, he's a lot more appealing to pro-life voters, anti-illegal immigration voters, and Second Amendment voters.

Ron Paul is always painted as a fringe candidate with extreme ideas (which admittedly, isn't that much of a stretch), but he's solidly in the mainstream on the biggest issues of the election: against the war, against runaway federal spending, against illegal immigration, and against spying on the American people.

Don't be so sure he would be in the 2-4% range as a third party option, either. That might be the case if the election were next week, but his campaign has gone viral, and could be much stronger by next summer.

by Lex on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 08:00:12 PM EST

Re: A Rift in the GOP? (none / 0)

Yeah, I think one of them said something about "having respect for all life" or something which seemed to mean they won't vote for a pro-abortion candidate and we all know who that is - Rudy.

by reasonwarrior on Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 08:38:33 PM EST

Paul is troublesome (none / 0)

While many of his positions - on unions for example - are 180 degrees from those on the left I think that he could draw significant among of protests votes from the anti war left. I think there are posters on this site that would jump that shark, sadly.

by dpANDREWS on Thu Oct 11, 2007 at 08:28:48 AM EST

I am of course referring to a Paul run (none / 0)

My guess is Paul will again accept the Libertarian's spot in the ticket.

by dpANDREWS on Thu Oct 11, 2007 at 08:29:40 AM EST
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