To win elections one has to craft a coalition of constituencies, which, taken together, make up the victorious margin. For the Democratic nomination we can identify six major constituencies Clinton has been able to bring to her side, to entrust her with their support. Some of those constituencies overlap in certain ways, and where I diaried about them individually in the past I will provide links to previous diaries for a more in-depth look at the issues involved that make Clinton the right fit for these constituencies.
These five groups make up the main reason Clinton is ahead in the race for the nomination.
1. The Middle Class
Middle Class voters feel disenfranchised and basically left out of any prudent government planning. The Bush tax cuts generally favored the wealthy, and there has been no effort made to loosen in the ever-increasing screw that has been put on those of us who reside in the Middle Class. We have seen health care costs grow out of control, which hits the Middle Class the hardest. At the same time gas prices have gone way up, home values have gone down, there is a lot of uncertainty in the job market.
Hillary Clinton has a major advantage with voters who classify themselves as Middle Class voters (generally speaking economically those making between $40,000 and $75,000 per year.) According to an aggregate of the last 4 Gallup polls, Clinton holds a 2 to 1 advantage over her opponents amongst Middle Class voters. Proposals specifically aimed at the Middle Class voter is the expansion of the S-CHIP bill, Clinton's universal health care proposal, College affordability proposals, supports minimum wage increases, etc.
For a more in-depth look at how Clinton relates to the Middle Class (and her history and proposals specific to this group) go to my previous diary here:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/9/18/0161 4/2029
View Clinton's signature advertisement "Invisible" which speaks to the Middle Class:
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2. Older voters
People 55 and older make up the largest voting block in primaries and caucuses. They always show up, rain or shine, which makes them the most important group.
source: http://www.seniorjournal.com/NEWS/Politi cs/4-10-28SeniorVote.htm
Yet, despite the all-importance older voters have in the election process, it seems that they are often overlooked for some of the sexier groups. Hillary Clinton has been fighting for many years for our older citizens, and as a result older voters are Clinton's strongest age constituency. They simply trust her on the issues important to them, which is why Clinton typically ends up with support numbers in the high 50s. low-50s from this segment of the population. Clinton scores with this particular age group because she is seen as right on most of the issues for this age demogroup, whether it is about social security issues, issues concerning health care issues for the elderly, Alzheimers' research, Kinship Caregiver issues, etc.
View my previous diary labelled "Clinton and seniors" here:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/9/11/3344 /25471
Also, view Clinton's speech at the ARA (Alliance for Retired Americans) conference:
http://www.kaisernetwork.org/health_cast /health2008hc.cfm?hc=2338
Related, another diary about Clinton's appearance at the yearly AARP conference in Boston a month ago.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/9/8/11574 3/9915
Video of Clinton's speech at the annual AARP conference:
Clinton has been courting seniors strongly, and she has the background, gravitas and heart to convince them that she is going to fight for them all the way.
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3. Women
Women are Hillary Clinton's main gender constituency. She draws about even with Obama amongst men, but women give Clinton very strong support. Just like with the two constituencies discussed above, polls show that women give Clinton the nod to the tune of 2 to 1. Women make up 54% of the voting population, so the first female frontrunner from either party would naturally bring a lot of excitement with it. Of course, Clinton has been a champion for women rights all her life, from reproductive rights to equal pay to legislation dealing with domestic abuse issues, etc. Clinton has a solid record dealing with women issues that is not matched by her competition.
Clinton has been very agressively courting women who have never voted before, and there are indications that she will be able to bring a lot of new women voters to the polls.
For an indepth look at the issue of women voters, read hwc's excellent diary labelled "20 Million Women: The First Time I Did It" here:
http://hwc.mydd.com/story/2007/8/27/0359 /99654
If Clinton continues to be as popular with Democratic women as she has been to date, she will win the nomination easily.
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4. Union members
Clinton's appeal amongst union voters can be observed in the Gallup poll from Sept. 12, 2007.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28 738
Amongst respondents who are actually members of a union, Clinton does equally well as she does in the general population, actually when it comes to her advantage over the other two-top tier candidates it grows even further when just the subgroup "union members" was polled. Her lead over her nearest competitor, Obama, in the union-member subgroup was 45 to 19% for Obama and 17% for Edwards. In other words, amongst rank-and-file union members Clinton enjoys a 3 to 1 advantage over her nearest competitor. Union members are not very numerous, but they are organized and generally bring a tremendous GOTV operation with them, which should bode well for Clinton.
This was discussed in a bit more depth in this recent diary:
http://hwc.mydd.com/story/2007/9/21/1315 6/1471
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5. Hispanic voters
Clinton is finding a very friendly audience in the Hispanic community. She gets trememdous support particularly in the Hispanic community. This is a very important constituency, as it is the fastest-growing segment of the population and Hispanic voters are critical in important states we are trying to turn blue, such as Florida, New Mexico, Arizona, etc. They also form a very important constituency in many urban areas around the country. George Bush received 40% of the Hispanic vote, but at this point they are trending heavily Democratic, with Hispanic support for Democrats now showing at 3 to 1 over Republicans.
Gallup tested the Hispanic vote in particular and found that Clinton has a major advantage over her rivals for the nomination when it comes to support from the Hispanic community, garnering 59% of the Hispanic vote that claims to intend to vote for a Democrat in primaries/caucuses.
Here the article:
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/new s/20070628/1a_cover28.art.htm
Here Clinton's very recent interview (published today) discussing Latino issues with the popular blog "Hispanic Trending":
http://juantornoe.blogs.com/hispanictren ding/2007/10/qa-on-hispanics.html
A more indepth look at the Hispanic demographic in a previous diary here:
http://georgep.mydd.com/story/2007/6/28/ 104715/947
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CONCLUSION
Clinton does very well in many other core groups and constituencies, such as young voters (18 to 29), African-American voters, Gays and Lesbians, but the five groups shown above give Clinton a level of support that absolutely dwarfs her competition, which therefore makes up her real advantage over her competitors. I believe, given the strong, solid support Clinton gets across the board from these five groups, and the level of involvement Clinton has had over the years in the issues important to the members of those groups, it will be very hard for another candidate to make inroads into these groups.
Elections are won by putting together strong core constituency groups, and Clinton has not just a couple but five of those. If she wins the Democratic nomination, her support with these five monster groups will be the obvious reason.
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