Senator Obama has been persistent in reminding us that while his principal rivals for the Democratic nomination were voting to give Bush the authorization to invade Iraq, he was speaking out against the rush to war when it was unpopular to do so. Every speech he gives describes Iraq as the war "that should never have been authorized and should never have been waged." He's right to be proud of that and he's right to use it as a point of distinction between himself and the other candidates, but it's been 8 months and, well, you know what they say about repeating the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. If one thing is clear, it's that Obama has not been able to capitalize on his prescience on the war, and what's more, he's allowed Clinton to win over anti-war Democrats despite her being the most hawkish candidate and despite her refusal to apologize for her vote. So, why does he continue to hammer away at his speech denouncing the war when the strategy has not delivered any discernible results? An e-mail I got on Monday from David Plouffe explains:
On October 2, 2002, while others followed the conventional thinking in Washington, Barack Obama showed the kind of judgment and leadership we need.He stood up against a popular war because he thought it was a mistake:
"What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne.What I am opposed to is the attempt by political hacks like Karl Rove to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty rate, a drop in the median income - to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst month since the Great Depression. That's what I'm opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on principle but on politics."
-Barack Obama, October 2, 2002
Tomorrow, on the five-year anniversary of that speech in Chicago, supporters are gathering in 18 cities across the country.
Together, we are rallying against the conventional thinking that led us into the Iraq war.
Clearly, whether the message of Obama's sound judgment on the most important foreign policy issue of our day was resonating or not, they were going to stick with it through at least Oct. 2, 2007. And don't get me wrong, I love the fact that he's using his name and vast organization to rally thousands of people nationwide against the war (find a rally near you HERE,) and in theory I think doing it on the 5th anniversary of his speech denouncing the war is genius. But will it really do anything to change the dynamic of the race? I'm not convinced. First off, it's quite apparent that Obama has been able to gain exactly zero momentum from his good judgment 5 years ago, so it's a big question mark in my mind as to whether he'll be able to translate the rallies into more support at this point. Also, looking at the wording of Plouffe's e-mail, I'm left scratching my head: what evidence is there exactly that the Democratic primary electorate is particularly contemptuous of this "Washington conventional wisdom" that Obama and Edwards constantly rail against; pluralities of Democrats all over the country consistently choose the personification of that conventional wisdom as their first choice for president. Has there been any indication that this idea of a "war on conventional wisdom" resonates with voters at all? And finally, is the inherent conflict in calling these rallies "Turn The Page On Iraq Rallies." In the same breath, the Obama campaign is asking us to "turn the page," to move on from the past and look to the future while at the same time urging us to look back five years to a moment that they believe should serve as the principle rationale for his candidacy.
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