The Bush/McCain Doctrine: At Least 2-3 More Years in Iraq

The number of Iraqi casualties is on the rise. December was bloodiest month for Americans in two years and five more American soldiers have lost their lives in recent days. In Great Britain, the country that has sustained the largest troopload within Iraq outside of the United States, the presumed heir to Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, has indicated that he would likely draw down his country's forces in Iraq upon assuming the position of Prime Minister. Yet now we learn from President Bush's new choice to head US military operations in Iraq that the administration's war strategy calls for at least two to three more years of commitment of American forces in the country, as John F. Burns reports for The New York Times.

The new American operational commander in Iraq said Sunday that even with the additional American troops likely to be deployed in Baghdad under President Bush's new war strategy it might take another "two or three years" for American and Iraqi forces to gain the upper hand in the war.

The commander, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, assumed day-to-day control of war operations last month in the first step of a makeover of the American military hierarchy here. In his first lengthy meeting with reporters, General Odierno, 52, struck a cautious note about American prospects, saying much will depend on whether commanders can show enough progress to stem eroding support in the United States for the war.

[...]

General Odierno said he envisaged making enough of a difference within three or four months of the new deployments to move to a second phase of the new plan, pulling American troops back to the periphery of Baghdad and leaving Iraqi forces to carry on the fight in the capital. He said he hoped to be able to do that by August or September, but with American troops prepared to move back into the capital rapidly if commanders conclude that the pullback was "a miscalculation."

If ever there were a question as to whether the call by President Bush, John McCain and others to surge more troops into Iraq is in fact an escalation of the war at a time when the vast majority of Americans expect US forces to begin redeploying in short order, this article is it. What's more, this article provides yet more proof that this move is designed to prolong the war.

Accordingly, it is incumbent upon Democrats on Capitol Hill to exert what power they have to stop the President from making this move or at least force him to make his case in the committee rooms and the hustings -- even if some Democrats have been reluctant to do so. Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi today came out in opposition to the policy of escalation, reiterating the content of a letter sent by her and Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to the President earlier this week. As explained in a memo written by John Podesta and others for the Center for American Progress last month, Congress indeed does have the power to force the President's hand on this matter by "plac[ing] place an amendment on the supplemental funding bill that states that if the administration wants to increase the number of troops in Iraq above 150,000, it must provide a plan for their purpose and require an up or down vote on exceeding that number."

Not only is such a move justified, constitutionally speaking, it is politically wise. But even more importantly, it also amounts to good policy, because America can no longer afford to take steps that needlessly prolong the war to the edge of endlessness and permanent American military commitment as advocated by the President and his key supporters like Sen. McCain.



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Strategy on the supplementary apps rider (none / 0)

I like the CAP rider proposal in principle.

But - I wonder how are the whip counts looking on that.

I'd assume nothing: even though a clear majority in both houses oppose the surge (I'm fairly sure that's right), supporting a rider is another matter.

Even in the House, they'd want to make sure they'd got a clear win.

In the Senate - they need a net nine for cloture.

And then there's the nuclear option: Bush threatens a veto, and tests his message against the Dems.

Even if the raw numbers look promising - and they do, so far as I can tell - before going ahead, the Dems need to make sure they've got a very good idea how strong their votes are, weak points, all that jazz.


by skeptic06 on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 06:13:00 AM EST

McCain in the WaPo opposes surge as inadequate (none / 0)

McCain in today's Post comes out against the surge.

The worst of all worlds would be a small, short surge of U.S. forces. We have tried small surges, and they have been ineffective because our commanders lacked the forces necessary to hold territory after it was cleared.

In fact, he supports an extended escalation, essentially for as long as it takes.

There are two keys to any increase in U.S. force levels: It must be substantial, and it must be sustained.

IMO, what's happening here is that his strategy is to take the "stab in the back" position, blaming liberals and weak-willed republicans for failing to do all that could be done to win. When he was talking about the "surge," he didn't expect Bush to be so stupid as to agree to it--forcing him to call for still more force.

As for bringing the conduct of the war to a vote, Biden has had the good idea of revisiting the AUMF, which is essentially irrelevant to the situation as it stands.  Capping the force or setting dates certain could both be approaches that would work. Pelosi's starting point--"No more blank checks"--is a good one.

Yes, these would be tough votes for some democrats. But they would be extremely tough votes for the 21 republican senators up for reelection in 08.  They're already sounding scared--Smith has left the reservation, Collins is cavilling, Hagel labeled the surge as "Alice in Wonderland" reasoning. Making these people vote may be exactly what we need to do.


by jayackroyd on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 06:59:32 AM EST

Re: McCain in the WaPo opposes surge as inadequate (none / 0)

I agree that a number of GOP senators will be on the spot.

What they'll be looking for to relieve the pressure is some kind of sense of the Senate amendment before the apps rider comes to a vote, so they can go on record against the surge without voting for an amendment that actually ties Bush's hands.

This will be an interesting test of how skillfully the Dems can use their majority to try to outmanoeuver the GOP: apart from outside events, the fall of the cards on the Capitol will be fairly vital to how things turn out.


by skeptic06 on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 07:41:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain in the WaPo opposes surge as inadequate (none / 0)

let's talk about bismarck. mccain is sensing that if he's tied to bush, he will be destroyed in 2008.

my view is that mccain is probably right, however, in his view - that if you want to get the job done you almost have to use a nuclear weapons grade force.  just annhilate the opposition over there.

problem: the opposition is common people, walking around on the street. you just can't kill enough people to win. because you will kill innocent people as well.

what a mess!


.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven
by heyAnita on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 10:34:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't Get Derailed (none / 0)

I hope the Dems can manage to make progress on the domestic agenda at the same rate as planned.  


by eRobin on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 08:18:19 AM EST

Bush Jr Strategy vs. McCain Strategy (none / 0)

If Democrats are going to oppose McCain in the 2008 elections, they better get the differences right or attempts to hang Bush Jr's Iraq failure on McCain will fail in the 2008 election.

They'll get in a debate with McCain and get whipsawed by the facts.

As someone has already pointed out, Bush Jr and McCain differ on the Iraq war strategy and always have, McCain calling for more troops initially.

In the current situation, McCain actually opposes a "surge" and wants a true escalation of US involvement over the next three years.

McCain has consistently called for more US troops and greater commitment. He can say that Iraq was lost because Bush Jr did not heed his warnings from the beginning.

Also, calling it the "McCain Doctrine" makes Democrats look ignorant of military and national security issues.  There's no "doctrine" involved. McCain is not offering a new US policy that will be employed in the Middle East.  He's stating a change tactics and strategy in a war.

Where McCain can be attacked is in the strategy and tactics he is proposing.

McCain can also be attacked on supporting the Iraq  war in the first place, in not getting it right as far as Iraq having WMD, being tied to 911, being any clear and present danger to US, to US not having a strategy and a plan.

Democrats need to understand and articulate the  differences clearly or McCain will beat them.


by BrionLutz on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 09:55:23 AM EST

McCain Doctrine (none / 0)

I don't know if the label is that much of a stretch. McCain's position is that success in the middle east will be won by the use of military force, as much as is necessary. I don't see how far removed that is from the Monroe Doctrine, that military force would be used by the US to defend the hemisphere.

I don't see how a strategy that is polling in the low teens is going to be hard for the democrats to beat.

What facts do you expect McCain to whipsaw the Democrats with?  What will McCain say when an opponent quotes his cakewalk talk in the beginning of the war?  How will he justify more of the same failed tactics?  His only hope is that they can't find 20,000 soldiers to deploy, so he can claim that his plan would have worked if only it had been implemented. That's why he is escalating his escalation program.  He's gotta keep taking a a more hawkish position until he comes up with one  that can't be implemented.

If you think that's gonna work, well we'll see what Iraq looks like in three friedman units under an escalation scheme.  And we'll see how much support the president gets from the Senate class of 08.


by jayackroyd on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 10:11:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Doctrine (none / 0)

I think what he's saying will happen if the dems debate mccain is that mccain will go back to what the generals were calling for when rumsfeld and his army of one were still over them. no up armor, etc.

again, speaking as a bona fide independent I think kerry said it best:

Iraq is a mistake of colossal proportion

If we're truly supporting the new congress and leadership we should set this one aside. it seems to me that we would do much better as americans, if we could finish nancy pelosi's first 100 hours of congress plan before we went onto the rectification of mistakes so grand they drain 200 billion dollars a year/ destroy our international standing as a beacon of democracy / kill off our children etc. etc.

Too many people have made their views all too clear on iraq for us to let the debate be dictated to us. Lets finish what we started before we're off singing to their sheet of music?


.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven
by heyAnita on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 10:39:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Doctrine (none / 0)

"I don't know if the label is that much of a stretch. McCain's position is that success in the middle east will be won by the use of military force, as much as is necessary."

A "doctrine" states a plan for future policy based on a fairly clear set of principles.  Monroe Doctrine for example.  Powell Doctrine for example.

McCain has put forth no such "doctrine" regarding the Iraq war.

Calling his statements on a change in US tactics and strategy in Iraq a "doctrine" looks a bit foolish.  Kind of like Dukakis in the tank. If someone did that in a debate with McCain he could quickly show them up as ignorant on facts and history.


by BrionLutz on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 10:55:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Doctrine (none / 0)

Like Dukakis in the tank?!?

You really think McCain would score points in a debate by quibbling about the definition of the word "doctrine"?

Dude, if your goal was to lose all credibility as a political analyst, that post was a good effort.  Seriously, not your best work.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 11:07:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Doctrine (none / 0)

"Like Dukakis in the tank?!? You really think McCain would score points in a debate by quibbling about the definition of the word "doctrine"?"

Big time...it would instantly shift the debate onto McCain's territory, military, national security.

It would be a way to show the opponent as lacking in knowledge of foreign policy and military...and those would be the areas that the opposing candidate would be trying to use against McCain.


by BrionLutz on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 11:15:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain Doctrine (3.00 / 1)

You're in a hole.  Stop digging.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 02:16:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Big Question (none / 0)

The big question for me is this- does this newly elected Democratic Congress have any courage of convictions at all? Are they going to stand up and take charge and take responsibility or whine? Are they really going to take on the criminal in the White House?


by cmpnwtr on Mon Jan 08, 2007 at 11:01:52 AM EST


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