I'd forgotten Brownback had converted to the RCC. I think it was Opus Dei's DC pastor/lobbyist who did it (And I swear I once read Bob Woodward also converted, but I can't find that info now, so maybe I hallucinated it). That could also boost him in the NJ Republican primary, no? Maybe New Mexico? I don't really know the make up of their Republican primary voters, but I don't think, when all is said and done, either McCain or Giuliani will be the '08 nominee.

Jerome,
I enjoy reading your posts but you're taking the lead from the MSM in  your concentration on the 08 presidential race. With so many important policy issues at hand before the country & congressional Democrats, don't you think its premature to try to divine the tea leaves 2 year out. Things change dramatically from month to month & with the primaries so far away, we're really talking about the most meaningless speculation at this point in time.

My small suggestion is let's focus on what policies Democrats should pursue currently, how to frame them & what policies Democratic presidential should run on in 08. An examination of what the various candidates have as the central pieces of their campaign also would be useful in a few months.

I say this with the greatest respect, as I really enjoy your pieces. But, this focus on the horse race - which is what the MSM is all about - before there really is a race is the weakest kind of fluff.

Chris,

I've a former political science professor, living in Philly. I'm very concerned about the upcoming mayoral race & would like to talk to you about the yardstick for whom progressives could support.

I get the impression you're positive on Nutter & would like to talk to you about why he's a bad candidate for progressives to rally behind.

could he still win the nomination?  I'd love to see him not be the nominee, and I'd love to see Brownback or Gingrich as it.

I'm a little skeptical that catholic organizing is gonna do it for Brownback.  While eastern Iowa does have a strong catholic population, it's more of a Democratic-leaning Irish Catholic group and I don't know how much of the Republican caucus they make up.  Iowa is a lot more Lutheran, and the conservative Christian activists tend more toward the evangelical side of things.  I think Brownback will do well with them too (I mean hell, look at Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes in '00) but of course like most conservative activists their support is for sale - Marlys Popma anyone?

There appears to be a minimum of 25 percent available to the theocratic candidate in the Iowa Republican Caucuses.   In 2000,  Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes combined for nearly 23 percent despite the fact that neither was a credible candidate.
In 1996  Bob Dole won the caucuses with only 26 percent of the vote while Pat Buchanan pulled 23 percent and Alan Keyes again drew 7 percent.  The clearest demonstration of the size of the theocratic bloc in the Iowa was 1988 when Reverend Pat Robertson pulled in 24.6 percent of the vote.

So the goal for Brownback in Iowa is only to be seen as the sole theocratic candidate and perhaps add a few points to the 23-25 percent base and then hope that the Guiliani and McCain split the neo-con vote pretty evenly.  

The traditional thinking is that only 3 candidates get tickets out of the Iowa caucuses into NH and Brownback is likely to have one of them.  

I'm starting to like Brownback's chances to win the nomination. If Giuliani and Romney stay in the race, the votes for the moderate could split three-ways, and let Brownback slip in with solid support from the theocrats. I could see this happen in both Iowa and New Hampshire, especially with Romney getting favorite son votes.

As Brownback no doubt often says ... and hope this religioso whack-job gets the GOP nod.  Anyone but Hillary would clobber him.  If it's Saint McCain, we lose.  Yeah, he'll be tied to the war ... but who will report it?  Read Media matters on the latest ass-kissing this old fuck received recently, and contrast it with the grilling Edwards already gets. Go Sam!  We love you, man!

20-25% in Iowa.

January 21: Iowa
January 28: New Hampshire
February 5: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, and West Virginia.

NH, and to a lesser extent IA, has become essentially meaningless for 2008 GOP candidates.  The question is, which of the 14 states whose primary is on 2/5 is the gatekeeper(s)?

Given that there is almost an equal balance between wing-nut and swing states and that some of these states have been represented by those likely to run (AZ-McCain, AR-Huckabee, OK-Keating) it is unlikely that one candidate will sweep all states.  It looks like whoever wins two out of FL, MI, and MO will have the inside edge to win the nomination.  Interestingly, these aren't exactly wing-nut states; so does this mean that the GOP will nominate a "moderate"?  I say, no.  The GOP nomination will not be settled until later in the primary season.  It will be a blood bath.

Looking at February 5th, Arizona will go to McCain, Arkansas to Huckabee and Utah to Romney. Michigan seems likely to go to McCain and proximity to Arizona might net him NM.

South Carolina, Alabama and possibly North Carolina are likely to go as a bloc, due to the similar populations of primary voters.

That leaves Florida, Missouri, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma (there's no concrete evidence Keating's running, and since the field is crowded enough already and I know next to nothing about him I'm excluding him from these calculations) and West Virginia. What are primary voters in these states like in terms of the wingnut quotient and the type of wingnut (Dixiecrat, neo-con, theocrat or libertarian)?

We know that's how it works.  Nobody comes out of the pack to win the GOP nomination.  

Looks like McCain, doesn't it?

Weird not to have George Allen in the field anymore. Gone but not missed.

What that 14-state super-primary does, just two weeks after Iowa and one week after NH, is that it requires a lot of money to contest more than a few of those states.  It doesn't matter that much if McCain loses both Iowa and New Hampshire; unless he commits some massive gaffe, he'll be able to show up in all 14 states, win five or six of them (along with a healthy trove of delegates), and be in the lead.

A second-tier candidate that wins in Iowa or NH won't have time to actually set up an organization in those Feb 5 states.  Hell, the NH winner might not get money fast enough to run TV ads.

Jerome,

Wikipedia's wrong on the GOP primary in SC.  The date hasn't been set yet.  The SCGOP is determined to have the "first in the South" primary again in 2008, regardless of the RNC's wishes.

Right now they're talking about holding it on Saturday, February 2, 2008.

SCGOP Chair Katon Dawson said recently, "I would rather stay in my hotel room and watch the proceedings on television ... than surrender our position (on the primary calendar)."