Cross-posted at Future Majority. (Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan... Very interesting stuff, indeed.)
Just got around to reading The American Freshman - National Norms for Fall 2006 (pdf). It's a longitudinal study of college freshman conducted by the Cooperative Institutional Research Program at UCLA. While that may sound about as fun as listening to Bush's State of the Union again, it actually had some really interesting findings that have ramifications for how we - progressives generally, and campaigns specifically - reach out and engage this group of voters.
Partisanship
In terms of political participation, the study made its obligatory bow to the growing size and power of young voters, noting that November saw the highest youth turnout in 20 years. It also noted that this engagement spread beyond the ballot box. This year's Freshman class discusses politics at a rate greater than any other in 41 years, with 33.8% reporting that they discussed politics frequently in high school. Freshman are also self-identifying as liberal (yay!) or conservative (boo!) at the highest level since 1975 (28.4 and 23.9%, respectively). This is a distinct reversal from the status in 2004, when pollsters were noting that youth seemed to be trending away from partisanship and towards an "independent" self identification. (Though, to be fair, 2004 polling frequently asked if students identified as Democrats or Republicans, not Liberals or Conservatives, so this is something of an apples to oranges comparison).
Policy
In terms of policy, most of the study offered nothing new, but there were a few interesting findings. There are a substantial majority of freshman who support a national health plan. The shock to me wasn't the liberal support (83.9%), but conservative support. A significant majority of freshman conservatives (57%) support the idea of a national health plan. Even greater majorities support government environmental regulation (88.5% of liberals, 79% of independents and 62.5% of conservatives). That's huge, and a huge opening for democratic candidates to make inroads with young conservative voters.
Also interesting - a majority of liberals and independents, and 42% of self identifying conservatives believe that wealthy people should pay a larger share of taxes. I wonder if this is arising out of an egalitarian revulsion at the growing disparity between rich and poor, or, coupled with some of the other stated ideological/policy preferences, might it be an early sign - or at least an opening - to start reviving faith in the power, and necessity, of government to foster the common good?
Higher Education
Polling and research (pdf) conducted before the election frequently indicated that higher education costs was one of the major issues driving young voters, and American Freshman sheds some more light on why that is the case.
I'd also note that this is a study of college freshman, so in the broader picture of higher education as a political and economic issue, this only paints half the picture. We're not even getting into how many students are priced-out of school altogether.
Civic Participation
We've all heard that us Millennials are volunteering machines - the only age group whose civic engagement is increasing (Putnam MP3). The study provides some direct and tangential evidence of that as well.
When asked to agree or disagree with the statement "realistically, an individual can do little to bring about major changes in our society," only 25% of liberals and 26.5% of conservatives agree. Not sure, but I think that would mean that 75% of each group believes that individuals can make a difference. That would square well with our volunteering habits and increasing level of civic participation.
The study also contained an interesting observation - while our civic engagement is increasing slightly, and more students than ever are placing a high value on "helping others, becoming a community leader, and influencing social values," only a relatively small percentage of of Freshman are participating in organizations like the Peace Corps and AmeriCorps.
That suggests a number of things. Either:
I tend to lean towards #1, but the study group opted to mention #2. That would be nice. If students are unsure how to realize their desire to affect change, that leaves a huge opening for a party or candidate that can find a way to engage these young voters - through civic or community service, cultural participation or any number of means - to capture their support and ride the blue wave to victory.
Barack seems like he might be able to do it through the power of his rhetoric alone. Edwards might be able to spark it with OneCorps. Gore could do it with his new found cultural cache. We'll see what happens.
That's it. I'm still chewing on it all, but it's good food for thought. What do you think?
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