Paths To The Nomination
by Chris Bowers, Fri Jan 26, 2007 at 12:36:01 PM EST
Given that the Democratic field is nearly set and
the likely event that February 5th, 2008 will be "Super Early Tuesday," here are my preliminary thoughts on the different ways the primary season could unfold:
- No Clear Voting Blocks. Voting blocks in Democratic primaries have traditionally been one of the factors that can mute the effects of frontloading. If one candidate has a sizable number of votes locked down due to demographic of ideological affinity, it becomes far more difficult for other candidates to gain traction through a series of victories of good showings in early states. For example, Jesse Jackson was unaffected by poor early state showing in 1984 and 1988, because he had hard support among African-Americans around the country. Al Gore and Bill Clinton, to differing degrees, were unaffected by early state troubles in 1988 and 1992, because of their support among southern whites (and, for Clinton, among southern blacks as well), during Super Tuesday.
However, I do not currently see much in the way of voting blocks now. The southern, white wing of the party might lean towards Edwards, but it is much smaller and less distinct within the party than it was in past cycles. African-Americans are not solidly behind any single candidate, and could be split between Obama and Clinton. The progressive movement is slowly emerging as something of a distinct voting block, but currently is split between Edwards, Obama and Clark. Latinos and westerners swung hard in favor of Democrats in 2006, which could favor Richardson as he holds both categories to himself. However, there is no prior evidence to indicate that either demographic group would vote in block-type fashion.
The lack of hard support for candidates that voting blocks can provide swings the advantage in these the nomination process distinctly in favor of those candidates who do well in early states. As no candidate can rely on any solid base of support if s/he were to stumble in early states, even so called top-tier candidates must perform at least up to expectations to have any shot at a strong performance on February 5th. People will not stick with someone who is perceived to be a loser.
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- Paths to February 5th Viability. Without voting blocks every candidate must find a way to go into February 5th with a strong chance of meeting the 15% delegate threshold in the vast majority of Super Early Tuesday states. Here is how I currently see the different paths:
- Edwards must win Iowa. If Edwards loses Iowa, there is probably no remaining path for him to the nomination, as he would have no real chance to make up any deficit in Nevada or New Hampshire. He might still be able to pull out South Carolina, but then even so, at best he could only equal his distant second place performance to Kerry on Super Tuesday, 2004. However, if he wins in Iowa, South Carolina becomes virtually assured. He also would have a great chance to seize New Hampshire and, to a lesser extent, Nevada, and would be guaranteed strong February 5th viability. Simply put, for Edwards, it all rests on Iowa.
- Clinton must finish in the top two in two of the following three: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Of all candidates, Hillary Clinton might have both the most money, and the largest core of hard-core voters, giving her the only path that does not require winning an early state. Democrats have been with the Clintons for a long time, and would be less likely to abandon her as long as she doesn't lose too badly in the early states. With a $100M or more, she would be able to run a large amount of TV spots in all Early Super Tuesday states for three or four weeks beforehand. So, for her, the key to strong February 5th viability will be showing that she is still in the game. If she finishes in third or lower in both Iowa and New Hampshire, she will have failed to do that, and will be finished. In order to be viable on February 5th, she needs to avoid being blown out early on.
- Obama must win an early state, and do "better than expected" in at least one other. The ideal situation for Obama is a victory in Iowa, which would severely cripple Edwards and give him the lion's share of soft, shifting support otherwise known as "momentum." This would probably also result in a New Hampshire victory, consolidated netroots support, significantly improved African-American support... and then he would be off to the races. However, failing an Iowa victory, he would then require a victory in New Hampshire (which would be difficult without an Iowa victory), and at the very least a strong second place in South Carolina. That would be good enough to get him into February 5th with a decent shot.
- Everyone else must win an early state. Period. Even if another candidate breaks through into the top tier before Iowa, failure to win any early state is the death knell of any potential insurgency. What victories could there be? Vilsack, obviously, can win Iowa. Biden in going for South Carolina. Richardson might have a good shot at Nevada. Dodd might be able to make some noise in New Hampshire. Clark has actually won a primary before, so he could have a chance. Kucinich and Gravel? I don't see it.
- Brokered convention? In order for the nomination to not be clear after February 5th, it will require two or more candidates to be virtually tied in terms of delegates the next day. If any candidate has any distinct delegate edge after Early Super Tuesday, the nomination will be over. I can see two possibilities in this regard. First, either Edwards or Obama sweeps the early states, but Clinton's money and long-term supporters keep her in the delegate game, thus extending the primary season possibly through the convention. Second, Clinton is shut out of the early states, but the winners of those contests are split three or four other ways, leaving three to five candidates viable on February 5th. The exact day, the delegate counts are split among so many different camps, that no one is close to securing 50%, thus pretty much guaranteeing a brokered scenario. The first scenario is far more likely to happen, but the second scenario is far more likely to produce a brokered convention.
Right now,
simply because his lead in Iowa appears solid, I would give Edwards a very slight edge in terms of the nomination. However, with Clinton's recent poll bounce, and with Obama's Facebook army, I could change my mind any minute. It also does not help Edwards, or anyone else, for that matter, that most of the media wants to portray this as a two person campaign between Obama and Clinton. The longer that keeps up, the harder it will become for Edwards. If either Obama or Clinton ever take the lead in Iowa in multiple, consecutive polls, that person will easily take over the frontrunner spot.
Tags: Democrats, President 2008 (all tags)
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