Hillary Clinton's strategy is to scoop up money from the elites, keep enough women to hold off from losing badly in Iowa and New Hampshire, and rack up huge margins in the black vote in the later states. She's very strong among African-Americans and women, but that could change. This is a big deal.
Barack Obama will need another layer of Teflon if he intends to continue talking mush on Iraq withdrawal. Speaking on CNN's Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer, Rep. Maxine Waters warned that she and other leaders of the 75-member Out of Iraq Congressional Caucus will soon journey to early Democratic primary states to determine "who is nuancing and tip-toeing" around the issue. Asked directly if she were referring to frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Waters said "they both have to prove themselves.".."The way to stop this war is to stop funding this war," Rep. Waters told CNN. The Black California congresswoman and other leaders of the Out of Iraq Caucus, more than a third of whose members are African Americans, are pushing legislation "that would wind us out of Iraq in six months."
Out - not "on the way out." Out.
The "Bring Our Troops Home and Sovereignty of Iraq Restoration Act," introduced last week by Rep. Lynn Woolsey and fellow Out of Iraq Caucus founders Waters and Barbara Lee, leaves no room for Clinton-Obama-esque wiggling.
I didn't realize this until I was in Connecticut, but Maxine Waters is a hero in the African-American community. She is admired, loved, and trusted, and without her, Lamont loses the primary. Along with Al Sharpton, who may still run in 2008, Maxine is going to make sure that Iraq will be on the table in the primary, and will push both Clinton and Obama to take a harder line. Right now, Clinton has something along the lines of a 90-10 approval/disapproval among African-Americans, but I saw up close that Maxine can beat Bill with Iraq. After Maxine endorsed Lamont, whenever Ned said 'We're spending $300M a day in Iraq, and that money should go to schools and hospitals, etc' he got more votes, and this was against someone who marched in the Civil Rights movement in the South.
Hillary Clinton, like Lieberman, is going to counter this with massive quantities of money, combined with a conversation with the elites. Here's her strategy:
But there aren't, really, vacations in Hillaryland. And the Clintons' time in Anguilla was well spent. For although they weren't hobnobbing with the usual political suspects, they spent much of their vacation with someone more important: Robert Johnson, the man known as the "First Black Billionaire."..Johnson -- founder of Black Entertainment Television and owner of the NBA's Charlotte Bobcats -- stands at the pinnacle of the black elite and embodies its longstanding ties to the Clintons. He didn't respond to a request for an interview, but three people familiar with the Clintons' Anguilla trip confirmed that Johnson -- an old Friend of Bill -- spent time with the Clintons on the island, where he owns a home. And while Johnson isn't a prominent public figure in American politics, he's a major behind-the-scenes power crucial to a central front in Clinton's campaign for president: a full-court press on the African-American elite.
BET (now owned by Viacom) isn't particularly trusted among progressive African-Americans, and there are huge tensions between elites and activists (much like there are between the netroots and the party elites that support Hillary). It's a standard Clinton model, going directly to the billionaire/media set. Robert Johnson is another Rupert Murdoch, and both look like they might be powerful Hillary supporters.
The progressive caucus, the netroots, and leaders like Maxine Waters can together be a potent force against a pro-war Hillary Clinton. Edwards is positioned well on Iraq (though he's insane when it comes to Iran), and Obama could move to the right place. The one who can't move is Hillary Clinton, in bed with the DLC's 'let's pretend Iraq doesn't exist' mode of politics. I don't get it, especially after 2006. Some commenters mentioned threats to big donors from the Hillary camp, though I imagine it's more of hard-sell ('you won't know anyone in the White House') than an actual threat, but it's clearly an attempt to put all other candidates on a starvation diet.
Hillary Clinton better hope that Maxine Waters/Al Sharpton, the netroots, big liberal donors, and the progressive caucus don't become an informal alliance. That alliance didn't win the general election in Connecticut, but then, this is a contest for the primary.
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