In their most recent national survey, CNN apparently
conducted a national primary trial heat that did not include John Kerry. The results were as follows (percentage of transferred Kerry voters in parenthesis):
Clinton: 36% (2)
Obama: 18% (0)
Edwards: 16% (1)
Gore: 12% (2)
Biden: 3% (0)
Clark: 2% (0)
Kucinich: 2% (0)
Richardson: 2% (0)
Dodd: 1% (0)
Sharpton: 1% (0)
Vilsack: 1% (0)
On a small note, CNN should be including Gravel in their polling, especially if they are including Clark, Gore and Sharpton. Gravel has announced--none of those three have.
On a larger note, it is instructive that Kerry's 5% of the vote when all candidates were included in the poll went entirely to the other well-known candidates. In fact,
as Pollster.com shows with a neat chart, no matter which of the well-known candidates are removed, virtually all of their supporters transfer to one of the other well-known candidates. In fact, of the 82% of poll respondents who choose one of Clinton, Edwards, Gore, Kerry or Obama as their first choice when all potential candidates were listed, all but all but 10% named one of Clinton, Edwards, Gore, Kerry or Obama as their second choices. People are simply sticking with the candidates who they know. This means that Hillary Clinton is not the only candidate whose high poll standing is supported largely through high name recognition, as much the same can also be said for Obama, Gore and Edwards.
I am not writing this to denigrate any candidate. Rather, I wish to point out that there clearly is an opening for the second and third tier candidates to move up, especially if they see a bump in name recognition. If the entire top tier's poll lead is predicated on high name recognition, that it follows that high (and positive) name recognition among Democrats and Democratic-leaners is all it would take to become top tier right now, at least in terms of polling. As the campaign moves forward, that should almost inevitably happen to nearly every single candidate in the lower tiers. This should ultimately produce a significant tightening of the race, and a blurring of the differences between the current tiers.
Right now, conventional wisdom might be that this is primarily a three-person race between Clinton, Edwards and Obama. However, even a quick analysis of the polling situation should reveal that the campaign is more fluid than CW ever suggests. Given the time between now and the Iowa caucuses, quite a bit can change.
