DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy

The new chair of the DCCC, Chris Van Hollen, has produced a memo outlining early DCCC strategy for 2008. I have placed the entire memo, taken from The Fix, in the extended entry with my emphasis in bold. The memo offers the following insights:
  1. The type of districts Democrats will target in 2008: Van Hollen writes that "we are in the process of targeting districts where Republicans won by less than 5%, seats won by Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election, districts occupied by ethically challenged incumbents and Republican seats likely to open." I like this list a lot, as it echoes arguments I have often made about which districts Democrats should target, even though I was often lambasted by D.C. insiders for my criteria.
  2. The requirements for big-time DCCC support. Basically, they are looking for money and grassroots / netroots support before coming in strong for someone. I am encouraged to see the grassroots and netroots requirements, because they could indicate a greater willingness to work with local Democrats on the ground in many key districts. This could lead to less conflict in primaries between the establishment and the movement, ala IL-06, NC-08, NH-01, and CA-11. I have to imagine that the success of grassroots and netroots candidates like McNenry, Shea-Porter, and even Kissell played a big role in bringing about these new requirements.
  3. Thanking and valuing the netroots. Van Hollen does something I can't ever remember Rahm doing--actually thanking and valuing the netroots.
  4. Confidence in incumbents. Van Hollen points out that Republicans are worse off than Democrats were after 1994, and that very few Democratic incumbents have lost since 1996. Incumbent confidence will allow us to stay on the offense.
Generally speaking, I think this is quite good, if a little vague. I would like to hear more about running as many candidates as possible, especially after breaking all recent records with 425 candidates this year. Unsurprisingly, The Fix focuses on statements Van Hollen made about letting freshmen "vote their district," but if what we have seen so far is any indication, Democrats already appear far more loyal, unified and progressive than at any time in the recent past. Frankly, given our current voting patterns, I am not too worried about such statements at this point in time.

You can read the entire memo after the flip.

Subject: DCCC MEMO: Sustaining Our Majority
TO: Interested Parties
FR: Chris Van Hollen
RE: Sustaining Our Majority
DA: January 23, 2007

Looking ahead to 2008, Democrats will remain on the offense. At the same time, as a result of our success last November we have many more members in districts that lean Republican in Presidential elections. We are determined to defend these districts by putting together aggressive fundraising plans, setting vigorous volunteer recruitment and house party goals and staffing up the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee early in the cycle.

We have put together a strong Frontline Team, led by Debbie Wasserman Schultz. The DCCC has already begun meeting with Frontline members to begin laying the internal campaign groundwork for the 2008 election cycle.

A. Staying on the Offense
As discussed in last week's memo, we are aggressively on offense and working to put a large number of Republican seats in play. We are in the process of targeting districts where Republicans won by less than 5%, seats won by Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election, districts occupied by ethically challenged incumbents and Republican seats likely to open. By challenging incumbent Republicans we can win additional seats and force them to expend resources defending their incumbents that would otherwise be directed at our most vulnerable members.

B. Setting Aggressive Frontline Goals
Fundraising
Since funding is a key factor in deterring tough Republican challengers, we have put together an aggressive fundraising program for members in tough districts. We have created aggressive goals for our Frontline members with targets ranging from 650k to 1 million cash-on-hand by June 30th.

Volunteer Recruitment and Outreach
In order to build the best local grassroots networks, Frontline members will put together outreach and volunteer programs in their home districts. Frontline members will be required to build and execute a rigorous 100 house party plan or a comparable grassroots substitute with the goal of identifying 1000 volunteers.

Online Networking
The support of net-roots organizations was key to Democrats success in 2006. Frontline members will be required to build an aggressive online operation with the goal of acquiring 30,000 e-mail addresses by November 2008.

C. Battle Tested Incumbents
Democrats have a strong record of defending tough incumbent seats. Taking out the impact of 2002 redistricting, Democrats have lost only six incumbents since 1996. Of these losses we have regained three (WI-08, CT-02 and KY-03). The DCCC will have a mentor program in place with battle-tested members like Jim Matheson (UT-02) and Dennis Moore (KS-02) working with incumbents from tough districts.

The new class is also packed with battle-tested new members like Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Patrick Murphy (PA-08), and Heath Shuler (NC-11) who won tough elections and head into 2008 with a more solid grasp of the political landscape of their districts and a strong understanding of what it takes to win.

The added benefit of incumbency is that it offers an expanded forum for new members to fundraise and deliver to their districts.

D. Delivering on Our Promise to Voters
As the saying goes, "good policy is good politics". The House Democratic leadership has put forth an aggressive legislative agenda right out of the gate, including important initiatives like increasing the minimum wage, passing real ethics reform legislation and allowing for price negotiation on costly prescription drugs. Delivering on what we promised in Speaker Pelosi's "100 Hour Plan" will show the American people our ability to be an effective governing majority, and change the way business is done in Washington.

E. 2006 Democrats vs. 1994 Republicans
Recent polling shows that the confidence of the public is still firmly behind the new Democratic Congress and the party agenda that was the focus of the new members' campaigns.

According to recent Democracy Corps polling, the Republican Party is in disarray and in much worse shape than the Democrats were in 1994. As polling from December 12-17, 2006 shows, 46% of voters have a negative feeling towards the GOP, while only 36% feel positive. Feeling towards the Democrats is 45% warm vs. 33% cool. To put this into perspective, the public is 8 points cooler towards Republicans today than they were towards the Democrats in the aftermath of the 1994 election debacle.

Just as importantly, only 25% of the public believes that the country is headed in the right direction, while 34% believed that we were headed in the right direction in 1994. Democrats are committed to remaining the party of change and reform rather than the status quo.


Display:


Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

He's doing a chat over there right now


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:01:08 PM EST

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

ouch. 8 questions and not a single substantive response.


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:18:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Speaking of challenging Rs who won by 5% or less... Last night I went and watched the SOTU at the CA Dem Party HQ.  They had a debate watching party and invited the press.  Charlie Brown, his wife and comms guy were there.  He did several interviews and is clearly looking to run again, which is great.  I hope that the DCCC gives more than token support to him this time around.  Doolittle is beatable.


by juls on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:02:49 PM EST

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

The support of net-roots organizations was key to Democrats success in 2006. Frontline members will be required to build an aggressive online operation with the goal of acquiring 30,000 e-mail addresses by November 2008.

I wonder how many House candidates built an email list of 30,000 people during the 2006 cycle.  If I had to set an over/under, I'd put it at 1 -- and probably bet the under.  That, of course, doesn't count candidates who bought email lists, which could put them over but does little to show committment to the medium/grassroots, netroots outreach.  Interesting metric to define success on that bullet point.  I'd love to hear from Matzzie on this.  Also, I think Matt, Chris, Laura and the good folks at BlogPAC who have done great work building local online infrastructure could help set additional goals for online outreach that are more indicative of a serious effort to reach out.  That said, seeing an acknowledgement from the new Chair and our inclusion in the memo is heartening.

As an aside, I wonder who replaced Jesse Lee over at the DCCC, who was an invaluable resource to the committee.

Tim


by Tim Tagaris on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:06:54 PM EST

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Indeed.  If it takes between 90,000 and 130,000 votes to win a House seat, 30,000 email addresses of prospective volunteers (in some meaningful sense of the word 'prospective') is a freakin' HUGE number.


by RT on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:22:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Yeah.. it's good to have goals, but 30K emails is a bit much for a congressional race. You couldn't get that without buying lists. 10K is probably a stretch goal that could actually be achieved.

If I were lord of the dccc, I'd recommend that candidates have at least one person on the campaign specifically assigned to internet stuff (could be a volunteer, doesn't have to be paid). That person would be responsible for keeping their website up to date, sending out emails to their list at least biweekly, reaching out to bloggers and doing campaign updates on national, state and other important blogs in the district (at least biweekly), maintaining a campaign blog, and maintaining the campaign facebook profile and maybe a myspace profile too.

Any of those things can fall by the wayside when they don't have somebody responsible for them.


by lpackard on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:54:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

I am not convinced that this is the best way to handle it, though it could work.  My most recent rant is about organizational buy-in to web activities.  Too often both campaigns and orgs see the Internet as a separate department, rather than a piece of every single thing they are doing.  It is part of comms, fundraising, field... If it is simply put on a volunteer, without having the organization make sure that each department puts in some of their time and resources to making it work, then the whole thing fails.

You need one person responsible yes, but they need to be seen as a valued member by every staffer.


by juls on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 03:30:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (3.00 / 2)

True, that could be a problem.. but I think more of an issue now is when the internet stuff doesn't belong to anybody. It just doesn't get done.

In MI in '06, one congressional campaign had a designated internet person (a volunteer). And you could tell - none of the other candidates got any traction on the national blogosphere, and most of their websites were stale, their email lists unused. Same thing with our Atty General and SOS candidates.

It really seems to make a difference to have a person in charge, rather then having it as the last item on a comm director's lengthy to-do list. That leads to it never getting done at all.


by lpackard on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 04:01:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Brandon English replaced Jesse Lee.  Brandon previously worked at the DCCC as a web project developer--he helped design several websites targeting incumbents.


Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country
by HellofaSandwich on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 03:16:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

What happened to Jesse Lee? Based on the 40-60 times I have seen the DCCC blog, I thought he did an exceptional job.


by optimusprime on Thu Jan 25, 2007 at 03:00:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

He's working for Nancy Pelosi now.


Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country
by HellofaSandwich on Thu Jan 25, 2007 at 08:49:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Great strategy, and its good to see us expressely mentioned in their plans


John McCain
by John Nicosia on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:07:35 PM EST

Re: Top of the Ticket (3.00 / 1)

Hopefully we can get a top-ticket nominee who won't be a drag on down-ballot candidates.  Maybe we can even find one with coattails.


"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR
by jallen on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:16:33 PM EST

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Trivial, but Baron Hill in Indiana lost his seat in 2004 and won it back in 2006.  Is that one of the six incumbent seats lost?  If so, it should be shown as won back.


by David Kowalski on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:27:23 PM EST

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Democrats already appear far more loyal, unified and progressive than at any time in the recent past.

This is not as surprising as many seem to think. The last time Democrats controlled Congress they still labored under the historic burden of depending on Southern Democrats for their majority. By 1994 most of those Dems were well and truly Republicans - not just on social and racial issues, but on economic issues as well (unlike many of the New Deal southerners who were economic populists). In fact, the wiping out of the remnant of these Dems was a large part of what brought about the Republican majority.

Now, for the first time, we have a much narrower ideological band among Democrats. It's pretty much center-left, with some outliers on either side.  This bodes very well for passing more progressive legislation, particularly in the House.

This is the key to the current political picture in Congress. And it is almost completely overlooked by friend and foe of progressive politics alike. Instead, we argue over the absurd definition of Heath Shuler and Jim Webb as "conservative".  


by KitBinns on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 02:57:22 PM EST

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Good point.  Even LBJ needed some Republican votes, particularly in the Senate, to get things through.  A lot of local politicians during the New Deal were specifically elected to support Roosevelt and judged by their ability to bring home Rural Electrification and other goodies of modern life.  Some, like Maury Maverick in San Antonio, would be considered liberal fifty years later.

This group of 233 Democrats has as many liberal votes as a much larger group from the 70s and 80s.


by David Kowalski on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 08:38:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

does anyone have last week's memo? (none / 0)

This one says last week was a discussion of offense.

A. Staying on the Offense
As discussed in last week's memo, we are aggressively on offense and working to put a large number of Republican seats in play.

That's the one I'd like to see!


John McCain is a Bush ally on Social Security.
by John DE on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 03:00:47 PM EST

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Democratic Offense
1)Arizona-1(Renzi)
2)Connecticut-4(Shays)
3)Florida-8(Keller)
4)Illinios-6(Roskam)
5)Illinios-10(Kirk)
6)Michigan-7(Walberg)
7)Michigan-9(Knollenberg)
8)Nevada-3(Porter)
9)New Jersey-7(Ferguson)
10)New Mexico-1(Wilson)
11)New York-25(Walsh)
12)North Carolina-8(Hayes)
13)Ohio-1(Chabot)
14)Ohio-15(Pryce)
15)Pennsylvania-6(Gerlach)
16)Washington-8(Reichert)
by CMBurns on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 03:05:53 PM EST

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

Twenty Republicans won by 5.0% or less.  Keller missed by 0.1%.  Add in NY-26, NY-29, OH-2, FL-13, and CA-4.


by David Kowalski on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 08:42:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Outlines 2008 Strategy (none / 0)

With regards to NY the state is going to lose two seats during the 2012 census- I would just save NY-26 and NY-29 they are the most red seat. we can put Slaughter and Reynolds in the same District(Buffalo-Rochester)-  Higgins and Kuhl in the other District(Southern Tier).


by CMBurns on Tue Jan 30, 2007 at 02:40:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Van Hollen is my Congressman (none / 0)

He appeared at a reception and rally after a day of canvassing in my district before the election.  I got a few minutes with him and spoke with him about Netroots candidates and the campaign to get safe members to contribute more to the DCCC.  I was just a face in the crowd, but I can't help but think that it helped to have one of his constituents talk to him about what the Netroots did and the candidates we were pushing.


by MDMan on Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 03:54:06 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.