Democratic Gains Even More Impressive in Hindsight

Following up on Adam T's analysis of the overall vote for the United States House last fall that appeared on this site about a week ago, The Hotline's state editor Quinn McCord takes his stab at the numbers and comes to some interesting conclusions of his own.
We all know '06 was bad for the GOP. But the breadth of the Dem victory shows up starkly in a new Hotline analysis of the cumulative nat'l vote for House candidates by state editor Quinn McCord.

Dems won 54.1% of the two-party vote in '06, much better than the GOP's 52.5% win in '02. That fueled Dem advantages in 27 states last year, compared to only 19 in '02. Most importantly, Dems carried the net vote in several swing states (OH, PA, MI, NV, NH), some of which they hadn't carried in more than a decade. Even in the reddest states, GOPers struggled to win more than 55% last year. They lost TN and NC outright. Also, Dems let only 10 GOPers go unchallenged in '06, compared to 45 uncontested Dem seats.

[...]

Here's the nat'l summary of two-party House results for the past four cycles; Leading totals are bolded:

GOP U.S. House Votes Dem U.S. House Votes
2000 47,238,467 (50.3) 46,701,783 (49.7%)
2002 37,428,113 (52.5%) 33,905,437 (47.5%)
2004 56,112,869 (51.4%) 53,128,318 (48.6%)
2006 35,904,068 (45.9%) 42,291,298 (54.1%)
____
4-yr
Total
176,683,517 (50.1%) 176,026,836 (49.9%)


# of States Won (w. flips)/Seats Uncontested
GOPers Dems __ Year __ By GOPers By Dems
29 21 2000 32 31
31 (+MS, MO, PA) 19 (+AR) 2002 36 44
30 (+MI) 20 (+CO, SD) 2004 29 36
23 27 (+MI, NV, NH,
NC, OH, PA, TN)
2006 45 10

[Tables slightly reformatted]

I'd strongly recommend you check out McCord's full analysis because it offers some very important insights into the political winds in the country. For instance, the Democrats increased their share of the votes in all but three states from 2004 to 2006 and, more importantly, they increased their share of the vote from 2002 to 2004 and again from 2004 to 2006 in 26 states. Four states upped their relative support for Democrats in each of the past three cycles, two of which -- Colorado and North Carolina -- could be evincing trends that could help out the Democrats not only on the congressional level but also quite possibly the presidential level. Fascinating stuff, really. Read it if you have the chance.



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Re: Democratic Gains Even More Impressive in Hinds (none / 0)

Great results, also shows the promise of CO as becoming a reliable Democratic state at all levels, and the worry that LA will be gone for a while post-katrina.  On the other hand, the former residents of New Orleans have to have went somewhere, so maybe their electoral power will pop up somewhere.

Altogether, useful and positive info.


John McCain
by John Nicosia on Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 06:23:21 PM EST

Re: Democratic Gains Even More Impressive in Hinds (none / 0)

I think the New Orleans refugees along with the politicalization of the Latino vote will bring Texas into play within the next decade.


by Marylander on Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 07:12:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democratic Gains (none / 0)

An increase of 8 million votes over the last midterm election is, indeed, impressive.


by SqueakyRat on Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 09:22:40 PM EST

Re: Democratic Gains Even More Impressive in Hinds (none / 0)

Yes, we used to live in a 49-51 nation, now we live in a 54-46 nation, with a mandate to end the Iraq war.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 10:31:12 PM EST


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