Is McCain Even Less Popular than Bush Among Indies?

The new Financial Dynamics poll (.pdf) commissioned by The Hotline and Diageo, and as always it has some interesting information. Perhaps the most interesting data concerns two slightly differently worded questions regarding the proposed increase American troops being sent to Iraq. One half of the poll's respondents were asked if they supported "President Bush's" proposal to increase troops while the other half were asked if they supported "John McCain's" proposal. The results may surprise you as they did me.

Do you favor or oppose President Bush's proposed strategy of increasing the number of American troops in Iraq by as many as 20,000 troops over then next few months?
Total Republicans Independents Democrats
Strongly favor 17 31 23 3
Somewhat favor 15 26 12 7
Somewhat oppose 9 10 12 7
Strongly oppose 53 25 49 79
Neither favor nor oppose (not read) 4 6 3 2
Don't know/refused (not read) 2 2 1 1

Do you favor or oppose Senator John McCain's proposed strategy of increasing the number of American troops in Iraq by as many as 20,000 troops over then next few months?
Total Republicans Independents Democrats
Strongly favor 21 34 24 9
Somewhat favor 16 32 6 9
Somewhat oppose 10 9 15 7
Strongly oppose 44 16 34 70
Neither favor nor oppose (not read) 4 4 10 1
Don't know/refused (not read) 6 6 10 4

As you can see, calling the increase in troops McCain's plan rather than Bush's leads to a slightly higher level of support, but also a higher level of indecisiveness among respondents. But the far more important statistic that jumps out from this comparison is support among Independents, who are thought to be McCain's bread and butter demographic.

Independents are actually less likely to support escalation if it is framed as McCain doctrine than they are if it is framed as President Bush's. They are the only partisan group to do so. Even Democrats are slightly more likely to support the increase in troops if it is listed as McCain's plan than they are if it is listed as Bush's. True, as I noted above, there is also a higher level of indecisiveness, both broadly and among Independents specifically, about "McCain's" plan than there is about "Bush's". In part, this can be chalked up to the fact that the President has received more coverage for supporting the plan than the Arizona Senator. Additionally, the fact that Americans' sentiments about Sen. McCain are less solidified than they are about the President plays a role in this. As a result, the level of opposition to a McCain plan for escalation is lower than that of a Bush plan.

All the same, the fact remains that, at least according to this survey, Independents are less likely to support a McCain-backed escalation than they are a Bush-backed one -- a stunning fact given the President's dearth of support among Independents and the Senator's one-time strength among them. In case you needed confirmation that the number of Independents supporting John McCain is decreasing rapidly, this may be it.



Display:


that's no evidence at all (none / 0)

There are 800 * 0.20 = 160 independents in the poll.  A five or six point difference means nothing, it is consistent with statistical noise.

The change from 'strongly oppose' to uncertain probably means Bush is hated/distrusted less than McCain.


John McCain is a Bush ally on Social Security.
by John DE on Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 06:22:16 PM EST

type (none / 0)

The change from 'strongly oppose' to uncertain probably means Bush is hated/distrusted MORE than McCain.


John McCain is a Bush ally on Social Security.
by John DE on Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 06:22:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: that's no evidence at all (none / 0)

It's certainly true that the margin of error is relatively high for sub-groups. But it's nonetheless noteworthy that Independents go from being 3 points more supportive of the Bush plan than the public as a whole to being 7 points less supportive of the McCain plan than the public as a whole -- a net 10-point difference, compared to the broader electorate.


My Direct Democracy
by Jonathan Singer on Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 07:58:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agree: not evidence of lower popularity (none / 0)

You could have chosen to read the results as indicating reduced opposition to McCain.

Opposition dropped from 61% for "Bush" to just 49% for "McCain" - a 19.7% decrease.

Support dropped from 35% for "Bush" to 30% for "McCain" - a 14.3% increase.

So, opposition decreases when the plan is McCain's rather than Bush's. Well, not really. Rounding error alone could erase the difference.

It is evidence mostly of uncertainty among Independents about what the hell McCain's plan is. The question as worded, in fact, is not describing McCain's plan. He's for (at the moment, at least) more than 20,000, not "as many as 20,000".

At best, the poll results provide evidence that Independents aren't getting giddy about anything and everything that has the McCain label.


by Ottnott on Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 08:13:17 PM EST

Re: Agree: not evidence of lower popularity (none / 0)

Clarification: my agreement is not with the post, but with the critical comment by John DE.

I should have made my comment in reply to John's comment.


by Ottnott on Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 08:15:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is McCain Even Less Popular than Bush (none / 0)

As an Independent, I oppose almost everything that Bush stands for and I have the same sentiments about John McCain and Joe Lieberman.

I should rephrase that since Bush doesn't stand for anything.  


by Deb on Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 10:48:22 PM EST

what I want to know (none / 0)

is how much longer the media will decree that mccain is a "mavrick" and a "straight shooter." Exactly what more does he have to do to get them to stop the BS?


Constitution of the Roman Republic
by EmperorHadrian on Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 12:25:19 AM EST

Re: Is McCain Even Less Popular than Bush (none / 0)

The media have picked their candidates and we will hear lavish praise for the chosen ones and smear for the others. We'll just have to do our part to change the rules of the game.


by Deb on Fri Jan 19, 2007 at 01:56:44 AM EST


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