MyDD :: McCain losing the base and GOP bloggers poll

McCain losing the base and GOP bloggers poll

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 08:52:37 AM EST

Duncan Hunter? That John McCain lost a straw poll is not really surprising, as I recall Phil Gramm and Pat Buchanan winning plenty of straw polls and still losing to Dole and the Bush's. McCain is busy buying up as much institutional real estate as possible, but among the base voters, he has huge problems.

The poll was taken at the Jan. 13 annual meeting of elected precinct committeemen of the Arizona Republican Party in Maricopa County, which includes the metropolis of Phoenix and is home to roughly 60 percent of Arizona's population.

A total of 458 party officials voted for their preferred Republican candidates for president -- and Hunter came out on top with 96 votes. Taking second and third place were former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 82 votes and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, who received 53 votes.

McCain ran fourth with 50 votes.

While we have been chattering here about a theocon bid in Iowa, is the neocon Hunter gaining traction? It is more likely just a blip, as Trent Franks backs Hunter. But Hunter is slowly gaining in the GOP bloggers strawpoll:

         
             Nov     Dec      Jan
Gingrich     25%      25       24
Giuliani     24%      22       21
Romney       20%      20       27
Undecided     9%       8        6
Tancredo      7%       7        7
McCain        6%       6        4
Brownback     2%       7        4
Hunter        2%       2        3
Hagel         2%       1        1
Huckabee      1%       1        2
Frist         1%       -        -
Pataki        0%       0        0
Thompson      -        1        1
Gilmore       -        -        1

Romney is gaining, Gingrich and Giuliani are still strong. McCain though, is in the dump, just like Hillary Clinton on our side at 4 percent. (I really don't get why Gore is not included given he has not ruled out a bid for '08 like he did in Dec '03 for '04-- that's telling something).

If either McCain or Clinton, as the frontrunners, win their nomination, it will significantly put a damper on the idea that political bloggers are a leading indicator. Now some of you might say, 'so what's new', as Dean and Clark lost in 2003 too, and you'd be right. But the political blogosphere has grown ~100x (ref: technorati & blogads) in traffic since 2003, and and we know it made a 2006 impact through Lamont's primary win and Webb's wins, which were driven from the netroots. The netroots on the left has the credibility in its resonance with the voters in Democratic primaries, and I really doubt that Clinton can pull off a win, and the same should be said about McCain, who appears instead to be moving backwards in the right blogosphere, but it is still very possible.

However, I think we can say with some assurance that the reverse --if a longshot is not breaking out on the partisan blogs and internet-- then that candidate has no chance at all. Which is an amazing point, when you consider how little those longshots are open to doing (or actually doing) on the internet.

Tags: John McCain, Duncan Hunter, GOP Bloggers 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 12 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: McCain losing the base and GOP bloggers poll (none / 0)

I think Hillary's weakness with the netroots is more important than McCain's. The right side of the political internet has shown no ability to sway anything beyond the employment status of a media figure or two. However, McCain's performance in straw polls consistently disappoints his partisans, so that should mean something.

To me, the name to watch on that list of GOP contenders is Tom Tancredo. Not that he'll win, but if he runs and runs hard, it would have major ramifications for the GOP, imo. His anti-immigration stance really resonates hard with the base, and I think McCain will be forced into deciding what to do with a Democrat-written immigration bill. So ... what will McCain do? If he votes for the bill seen by the base as "amnesty" for illegal immigrants, another of the major contenders will use that to knock him out.

Tancredo could be the wedge that pulls the GOP base away from the Latino vote and moderates for the next decade or two. Somebody better call Pete Wilson and see how that worked out for the CA GOP ...

by BriVT on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 09:26:13 AM EST

Re: McCain losing the base and GOP bloggers poll (none / 0)

McCain's problem is that he doesn't hate enough for the hard right to like him.

Seriously.

Although McCain has a solidly conservative voting record, much more conservative than Bush's ever was, the far right sees him as a liberal. This is because McCain is no "culture warror". He doesn't hate liberals, gays, Mexicans, or Muslims, which makes him unacceptable to those who do.

Nor does he ally himself with the power brokers of the far right, such as Falwell and Dobson. These power brokers command thousands of ~~sheep~~ followers, and they do as they are told.

Of course, in the long run, hate is a losing hand for the GOP. Just ask Pete Wilson.

by wayward on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 08:23:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edge to Hillary & McCain (none / 0)

Far as I can see from where I sit, I would still be surprised at this point if we do not see a Clinton - McCain match up in the general.

That being said, anyone making a case for Edwards or Romney at this point certainly have a lot to base their arguement on.

But Hunter? Puh-lease.

by dpANDREWS on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 10:24:35 AM EST

Re: McCain losing the base and GOP bloggers poll (none / 0)

Here in the Sonoran Desert, I see it somewhat differently. Superficially, Duncan Hunter came out on top in this straw poll for two reasons. First, Hunter is a hard core conservative. And secondly, the military industrial complex has a big time impact on Arizona's economy.

But more to the point, is that McCain has an "ace" up his sleeve, and that is the uber-conservative Arizona Senator Jon Kyl playing the assigned role that McCain has created for him, and that as McCain's 'chief ideologist'. To understand the success that Kyl has had in the Senate, one needs to understand that Kyl does not leave any fingerprints behind. His political 'humility' is that he (Kyl) is willing to give away all credit to anyone who will accept it.

In any event, should McCain stumble badly, Kyl would or could step in and become the new or instant "candidate". To wit, Kyl can easily run circles around Gingrich, Giuliani, Romney, and Hunter, either individually or collectively. And we, as Democrats, should be thankful that Kyl's presidential ambition has yet to be triggered by the GOP's lackluster crop of presidential aspirants.

by Jaango on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 10:26:59 AM EST

Re: Hunter (none / 0)

Interesting that GOP insiders like Hunter. His whole bid is based on trade protectionism (not "fair trade," but outright protectionism) and an anti-immigration stance.

If he was against the Iraq war, he'd be Pat Buchanan, and I remember how well that went.

by craverguy on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 11:01:04 AM EST

I'd Watch Out For Hunter (none / 0)

Duncan Hunter is fairly self-disciplined and button-down; no flamboyant bombasticisms like Gingrich, McCain, or Tancredo. He also seems to "toe the line" on most of the major 'winger issues. I think he may gain ground on the "electability" plank with their base as a result of these.

Stancewise, he resembles a calmer Lou Dobbs, and as you know, what Lou Dobbs is saying resonates hard with a lot of voters too (me included). If Hunter runs on a platform of "control illegal immigration, keep jobs in America for Americans, protect American industry," and such, he will be very, very hard to beat. I think these issues are pretty much the zeitgeist of the American electorate these days whatever their party.

As a consequence I suspect we could wind up with an Edwards/Hunter or Vilsack/Hunter race.

No, I don't think Clinton will get the nomination. In all my years of watching politics, never has the candidate that was anointed by the media 2 years out, wound up winning the nomination. It's almost always been somebody no one expects (at least on the Democratic side).

by ItsBeenCalmingForSomeTime on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 10:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain losing the base (3.00 / 1)

McCain may be having trouble with his base at the moment, but in the end the GOP voters always circle the wagons and vote for the strongest candidate they can find, regardless of the various philosophical differences that may exist. The Right has been doing this same dance for years.

by global yokel on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 11:30:22 AM EST

Re: McCain losing the base (none / 0)

As a general rule, the Republican front-runner becomes the anointed one, while the Democratic front-runner is a walking target.

Since WWII, the Republican front-runner has won the nomination every time but once.

This was when Barry Goldwater defeated Nelson Rockefeller shortly after Rockefeller divorced his wife and married his secretary, which was very much frowned upon in 1964.

by wayward on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 08:13:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Giuliani does surprisingly well with this poll (none / 0)

I'm surprised that his pro-choice, and treating gays like they're actually people stances aren't hurting him more.

No surprise to see Gingrich on top, however I was surprised to see brownback so low.

by Terryus on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 11:55:31 AM EST

Romney (none / 0)

If Romney can only get 82 out of 452 party officials in Maricopa County that means that only the Mormons have voted for him. Even though he came in second, that's not a good sign.

PS: I will try to find some figures about Mormon demographics in Maricopa County.

by Hellmut on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 12:00:22 PM EST

Re: McCain losing the base and GOP bloggers poll (3.00 / 1)

I agree that McCain is the Hillary of the GOP, high name recognition, but the hard right hates him. He may still win though if he gets the $$ advantage. What's with the obsession with Gore, I truly feel his time has passed. It's all about Obama, Edwards and Hillary...I wish Clark would jump in though.

by Kingstongirl on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 02:25:20 PM EST

Re: McCain losing the base and GOP bloggers poll (none / 0)

I think Clark is in. from:

http://securingamerica.com/ccn/node/1055 6

"When I run, I'll be the national security candidate"

The "when" not "if" could be a mis-speak, but I don't think so.

by haypops on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 02:50:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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