So, Giuliani's numbers have been universally strong across the board, but all of us are fairly certain that his positions on the issues, combined with his baggage, will kill his chances of getting the nomination.

My read on Edwards is that he has to win Iowa and South Carolina to have a chance at the nomination. If he loses Iowa, he bleeds momentum immediately - he has to be the favorite there. If he loses South Carolina, he can't win.

I'm moving closer and closer, however, to calling Obama the frontrunner. His national polling is now neck-and-neck with Hillary, and that's before yesterday's announcement.

...is that Edwards is very solid.

(and some liberal blogs) insist on claiming that Obama is Clinton's main challenger. In a rational world, Obama would be seen as Edwards's main challenger, and Clinton would be regarded as a long shot--who are her supporters? Not the passionate voters; not the pragmatic ones.

When was the last time the most progressive serious contender in the Democratic field was also the most electable? That's a serious question. I'd like to know.

Boy, I'm not sure Iowa polls are very useful a week before the caucus, let alone a year. And a Zogby poll, at that ... what exactly is a "likely voter screen" for a caucus that's a year away?

Still though, that's a good result for Edwards. Not too surprising (he did well last time, and he's worked the state hard), but a good result nonetheless.

I think he is right on the issues that are important to most Americans, and he has been connecting in Iowa in almost one on one basis.

Dean was supposed to crush everyone with money and grass roots support and polls agreed but he got crushed and it was the beginning of the end for Dean.

Do the polls have a hard time predicting caucuses?

Still first round polls, so tough to guess analysis, but maybe pollster will start trending now.

Discounting the ARG poll, which doesn't seem to fit with the other polls and to me looked more like name recognition than anything else, it's notable how weak Clinton is. She's got to improve those scores or dominate NH within the next few months, or the media will note her relatively poor performance. Sure, they love her right now, but certain elements are just waiting to bring her down a peg or two. And a presumed frontrunner who suddenly turns out not to be a frontrunner is going to lose a lot of votes based on perceived electability.

I also believe (based admittedly on the views of the netroots, who represent a very active set of the base but not necessarily the most typical grouping) that if either Obama or Edwards drops out the other will get enough support to more or less lock up the nomination.

If Gingrich were getting into the race now, I'd agree with Jonathan, that he's the consensus conservative. But he's said he's waiting til Labor Day to see what happens. So I think Brownback will be the Howard Dean of this race, sneaking in seemingly out of nowhere to represent the Republican wing of the Republican party. He's got a long solid record of conservatism, unlike the rest of the front-runners, and because of that he has more room to criticize Bush on the war, which by now is starting to turn off Republicans too. In fact, it would be smart of him to criticize escalation as the "McCain Doctrine" too, so he can criticize the plan without it necessarily playing as a criticism of Bush.

Senator Clinton has not announced her intentions, yet. But that doesn't mean her entire team aren't working the phones; sending thousands of emails; holding meetings and, especially in Iowa, where Hillary has a huge grassroots organization just waiting to kick into place once she makes her announcement.

I know I stick out like a sore thumb among netroots folks, as I do very much support Sen. Clinton. The netroots should (I think) more closely examine the voter demographic of the November mid-term elections. We have a Dem controlled House and Senate because independents, angry Republicans and even 30% of white Evangelicals voted Democratic.

That is the reality that Sen. Clinton has always understood. Barack Obama gets it too. We cannot afford to lose those people in the general election, although I am sure we will lose some of them.  This is what John Edwards is ignoring by stigmitizing the poor and making demands re Iraq. It is about the center; and it will remain that way until we elect a Democratic President.

Dean and his grassroots, 50-state program should continue their great work.  Meanwhile, none of us should be trouncing a Dem candidate right now.  The Republicans will do that very well without our help.

I intend to put my full support behind the Dem nominee, whoever it may be.

The complaint many of us have had about Edwards is that he lacks a "killer instinct" (as though a successful trial lawyer would be a creampuff), but he seems to be doing something about that with his assaults on McCain and Clinton over their Iraq positions.