Back before the election, I noted trends within younger voters that augured well for Democrats hoping to tap the age cohort for support not only in the 2006 midterms but also in years to come. Indeed on election day last fall, those under the age of 30 supported the Democrats by a 60 percent to 38 percent margin according to exit polling -- the largest margin, either way, for any age group listed. And judging by polling released yesterday by The Pew Center, it appears that the political views of younger voters, who the pollster refers to as "generation next", could place them firmly in the progressive tent for some time to come. Among other things, Pew finds that:
- About half of Gen Nexters saw the growing number of immigrants to the U.S. strengthens the country -- more than any generation. And they also lead the way in their support for gay marriage and acceptance of interracial dating.
- Beyond these social issues, their views defy easy categorization. For example, Generation Next is less critical of government regulation of business but also less critical of business itself. And they are the most likely of any generation to support privatization of the Social Security system.
- In Pew surveys in 2006, nearly half of young people (48%) identified more with the Democratic Party, while just 35% affiliated more with the GOP. This makes Generation Next the least Republican generation.
- They are significantly less cynical about government and political leaders than are other Americans or the previous generation of young people. A majority of Americans agree with the statement: "When something is run by the government, it is usually inefficient and wasteful," but most Generation Nexters reject this idea.
Of course not all of these findings bode well for the Democrats. The fact that this generation (age 18 to 25, according to Pew) is more supportive of the partial privatization of Social Security indicates that they are not wholly in line with the policies of the Democratic Party. Yet at the same time, their embrace of government -- and particularly government's capacity to do good -- indicates that Democrats might not have quite so far to go to restore Americans' faith in government, thus buttressing progressivism. What's more, the social views (or cultural progressivism) of this age cohort -- being repelled by the nativism and discriminatory language embraced by many in the Republican Party, for example -- could cause real problems in the future for conservatives should they (as I assume they will) continue to wage a culture war in this country.
We need not overstate the meaning of this polling. Opinions can be fleeting, and the Democrats can quickly lose the support of these voters. Moreover, although people's voting patterns tend to solidify once they have supported one party or the other in a number of consecutive elections, new cleavages within the electorate can emerge rather quickly that reshape the partisan playing field. That all said, the Democrats do have a chance to tap this generation for support -- perhaps like none other in recent memory.
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