While I do not know how up to date it is,
wikipedia currently lists the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus schedule as follows:
- January 14, 2008 - Iowa
- January 19, 2008 - Nevada
- January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire*
- January 29, 2008 - South Carolina
- February 5, 2008 - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas[1], Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Utah
Other states could soon follow the pack and hold their primaries on February 5th,
such as Illinois.
One of the things that strikes me about this calendar is just how many "home states" there are in the early going. In addition to a possible Illinois primary for Obama on February 5th, Vilsack is from Iowa, Clark is from Arkansas, Biden is from Delaware, Richardson is from New Mexico, and Edwards is from North Carolina. Virtually every candidate could have the benefit of an early home state. In fact, there are roughly as many non-home states (seven) as there are home states (five or six), and the home states tend to be much larger than the non-home states.
All of these early home states have the potential of keeping a number of candidates afloat after February 5th. After all, it takes only one victory to release federal matching funds (that is, if anyone uses them). Also, the large number of home states could create a fractured process where a number of different candidates score early victories, thus reducing the prospect of an early, blowout frontrunner. Further, having four early states instead of just two could create conflicting "momentum." With Nevada only five days after Iowa, and New Hampshire only three days after Nevada, it seems much more likely that no one candidate will sweep the early states in 2008, ala Kerry in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2004. Combine all of this with the potential for three strong frontrunners in Clinton, Edwards, and Obama, and there is a real prospect for a much more drawn out nominating process in 2008 than there was in 2004. While we are almost certain to know the Republican nominee on February 6th, due to their
rather extreme frontloading, it might take a while on the Democratic side to end up with a presumptive nominee.
Perhaps, because I am a political junkie, I am just trying to convince myself that the Democratic nomination process has a very real chance to continue on, in a meaningful way, after February 5th. Maybe the changes to the primary calendar don't matter much, because in the end there are no significant difference of opinion among Democrats in Iowa and Democrats in Nevada. Maybe there are no longer any clear voting blocks among the primary electorate that could allow candidates to stay afloat despite poor showing in early states, ala Gore and Jackson back in 1988. Maybe Democratic primary voters don't really see a big difference among the leading candidates and, craving electability, they are willing to line up behind whoever appears to be a winner following Iowa. Maybe news coverage of primary elections has grown so thin, and civic engagement has reached such a low point, that most primary voters don't even know about the main differences between the leading candidates.
Or maybe, just maybe, the cards will fall into place and 2008 will be the most rollicking, up and down Democratic primary season in decades. I certainly hope so. I don't believe that a drawn out primary season would hurt the eventual Democratic nominee, since s/he would get a lot more free media, and have much more time to set up a battle-hardened, national operation. Thus, right now, since I am not strongly behind any of the horses in the race, the best I can hope for is the racing of the horses to be interesting.
