Right now, four Senate races are all looking very good for pickups this year: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Below those four races are a tier of three campaigns where the Democratic candidates are slightly behind in polls and also behind on cash:
Jim Webb in Virginia,
Harold Ford in Tennessee, and
Claire McCaskill in Missouri. (Technically, Ford isn't behind on cash according to the latest report, but since his opponent, Corker, can self-finance, he might very well be by now). Looking at
polling averages form the last month, it is remarkable how similar these three races have become:
Missouri (Five polls)
Talent: 47.6
McCaskill: 45.4
Tennessee (Four polls)
Corker: 45.6
Ford: 43.5
Virginia (Three polls)
Allen: 47.7
Webb: 45.0
Margins of 2.7, 2.2 and 2.1 across the three races right now. This new tier of races, forming a belt right across the border states, is where control of the Senate will be decided. Democrats have basically no chance of winning the senate unless we win at least two of these three races. Obviously, pulling that off is a very a difficult task, which is why I remain so pessimistic about our chances to take over the Senate. However, as more and more scandals keep cropping up for Republican candidates, and as more and more polls come out
such as today's Rasmussen on Tennessee showing races closer after these scandals, today, for the first time, I can write what I have hoped to be able to write since November 3rd, 2004. If the election was held today, there is indeed a real chance that Democrats would take control of the Senate. I am not projecting control yet, but for the first time it is an actual possibility.
All of these campaigns remain uphill battles. On paper, Ford might have the best chance, since
he leads in cash and is running for an open seat rather than against an incumbent. However, Tennessee is the most conservative of these three states, and Bob Corker is a rich, rich man. Webb is certainly the most exciting race, as it has the biggest upward trend, was the longest shot to begin with, and is fueled by people-power. However, it is in Virginia that
we face the largest cash deficit, even though Webb claims to have raised over $2M since June 30th. In Missouri, we have a race that has been long-established as highly competitive, but lately the very slight leanings one way or the other in this race
have shifted against us.
If you had told me eighteen months ago that in early September of 2006 we would be in a realistic position to take the Senate, I probably would have snorted and then shook my head in cynical disagreement. However, miraculously, we have actually achieved that goal. Our odds still are not very good--I'd place them at around 10-20%--but they do exist. If we can come up with just four or five more points in these three states, we could actually pull it off.
I have now updated the Senate forecast later today to reflect this.
