The twenty-seven new House polls from earlier today were, generally speaking, good news for Democrats. However, looking a little further into the poll, the numbers are even better. From the press release on the poll (emphasis in original):
Results from the first round of polling indicate the following:
- Control of the House is largely held in the hands of Caucasian Americans. In all these swing districts, the power of white voters in these races is magnified. Based on the demographic modeling for each district surveyed, across the 30,000 interviews, 94 percent of those surveyed were white, 3 percent were Hispanic (mostly in New Mexico 's 1st District) and 3 percent were African-American.
OK, that right there is crazy. 94% of the electorate is not going to be white--not even close. The idea that minorities will only make up 6% of the electorate anywhere, much less in twenty-seven different districts, is just bullshit. According to
Tech Politics, the median percentage of minority residents in these districts is 11.2% (CT-02), yet we are supposed to believe that only 6% of the votes in these districts will be minorities. If Republicans are losing the House in polls where basically everyone is white, then they are really, really up a creek. Republicans have consistently lost heavily among every minority group, especially African-Americans, who will make up a lot more than 3% of the electorate in these twenty-seven districts. More form the release:
- The president's job approval rating is having a big effect. Overall, across all 30 districts, 38 percent of those surveyed approve and 55 percent disapprove of President Bush's job performance. This clearly may affect the Republicans' ability to hold these contested seats.
- Both parties need to shore up swing voters. Since at the present time the two parties are holding their bases, each needs to shore up weak supporters, half of whom are not members of their party and most of whom are women.
So, a lot can change. And if Bush is at 38% approval in these districts, which tend to lean Republican, then, well, no wonder Republicans who sucked up to him in 2002 are now running away from him. Flip-floppers. Here is one more important tidbit:
The party identification of those truly undecided breaks down as follows:
- Forty-one percent are Democrats.
- Thirty-five percent are Republicans.
- Twenty-four percent are independent or other.
- The majority are male.
The Partisan breakdown among the undecided also bodes well for Democrats. Combine that with minorities being significantly underrepresented, and this poll is even better news for Democrats than previously believed. Based on what we have seen today, I feel comfortable concluding that if the election were held tomorrow, Democrats would take the House.
