Pollster.com

In advance of the 2006 elections, an important new site, Pollster.com, has just launched. It is a joint project of two of my favorite bloggers, Mark Blumenthal of Mystery Pollster and Charles Franklin of Political Arthmetik. By combining forces, these two blogs now appear to have instantly created the best polling website anywhere.

Among other goodies, they have five-poll and ten-poll average for eleven key Senate races right now. I will be incorporating these averages, with proper links, of course, into my Senate forecasts. Here are the five-poll moving averages each of the eleven states (click on the links to see the individual polls used and the long-term trends): These averages do not yet include the new polls from Gallup, nor do they include data from Maryland. However, they serve as an excellent snapshot of polling on Senate races this summer. Clearly, from this snapshot one can see that Democrats are doing pretty darn well. Ohio has clearly moved to "lean Dem" territory, and both Tennessee and Virginia clearly seem to be in play.

Anyway, I can't say enough good things about this site. I imagine I will be checking it obsessively, several times a day between now and November 7th. It never ceases to amaze me how small, boutique sites such as Pollster.com provide far better information on elections in America than do large, establishment outlets. If small websites operated by two or three people can provide far better information on American elections than organizations with hundreds of employees such as CNN, what on earth are those large outlets spending their money on?

Man, I love the blogosphere.



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Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

Who would have thought Casey would be in the exact same position as Klobuchar at this point?

I thought Santorum was THE one easiest to beat and Casey was THE one that would beat him the easiest?

Casey's a dog...with fleas.  


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 05:12:18 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

I don't really follow the comparison. Minnesota is an open seat vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton, so that wouldn't be a pick-up.


by liberal atheist on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 10:14:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

Most experts had predicted long ago that Klobuchar would be down a few or tied with Kennedy at this stage.  She's now ahead by nine.  Casey should be in high double-digits at this point and Klobuchar seems to be running a better race.

I do not think Casey is a good candidate with much fire for anything.  


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Mon Sep 04, 2006 at 02:28:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

Santorum made a fool out of himself today in his debate I think his numbers are going to start falling agagin


by orin76 on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 05:20:22 PM EST

What on earth are they spending it on? (none / 0)

Uh, how about process stories, overpaid prompter readers, murdered 6 year olds from 10 years ago, and shareholder earnings


by adamterando on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 05:22:28 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

What's with Virginia? With Allen revealed as an idiot and a full-time racist, I'd have thought that he would be polling lower than Santorum.


by antiHyde on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 05:47:40 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

The idiot and racist are allowed to vote in Virginia and do so in large numbers.  The Confederacy lives and it is voting Allen.


by Crablaw on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 05:55:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

includes late July polls (none / 0)

and Webb did terrible one of those which had hi near 30!  That drags down the average a lot.

Virginia  senate polls


New Jersey politics and news
by John DE on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 06:51:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

As the DC suburbs grow explosively, the racist element is being offset, but there is still a way to go. I think northern Virginia is a pretty good place to live so long as you don't have to drive anywhere. (I live in Maryland, but I am close enough to be familiar with several of those freeways.) Virginia is trending in the right direction, and is already a lot closer politically than South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi or Texas.


by liberal atheist on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 10:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

With you there.  Hampton Roads is still pretty conservative but trending purple.  


by Crablaw on Mon Sep 04, 2006 at 12:01:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Eleven states... (none / 0)

ten fights, and one (AZ) we're working on.

Good stuff.


k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 05:55:36 PM EST

Re: Eleven states... (none / 0)

We're gonna kick their butts, kid. Pollster is very cool. I've linked it on our new blog, under 'play by play', which will be debuting soon. Name TBD. It's gonna let us use all the tools we couldn't from Drinking Liberally, Oakland's site due to their tax status.

A.Citizen writing as Pericles...


by Pericles on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 07:57:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

Overall this looks good.


by herbal tee on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 06:01:48 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

It's dissapointing to see that the Nevada Senate race isn't listed... but at least they list our Governor's race!

I wish the netroots would pick up on the Nevada Governor's race more.  Titus is the next Napolitano.


by mbcarl on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 06:35:49 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

"If small websites operated by two or three people can provide far better information on American elections than organizations with hundreds of employees such as CNN, what on earth are those large outlets spending their money on?"

Well among other things, there are those polls that MP and prof Franklin meta-analyze at their most excellent new site. Virtually all of those are paid for by major media outlets. Then I guess there's all that original news reporting that drives all the news analysis on other blogs. For all the kvetching about the MSM not spending enough time on this story or too much on that one or getting another one wrong, it is after all, primarily by virtue of their efforts, however flawed, that we know about any of those stories to begin with.


by CalD on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 06:44:35 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

Outstanding graphics. Love that site.


Witty comment goes here...
by michael in chicago on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 07:15:19 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com: Missouri (none / 0)

Note that the most recent Missouri average includes the just-released Research 2000 poll that has McCaskill up 47-46.  The last Research 2000 poll (June) had McCaskill by 7.  But the St. Louis news story about the poll includes some good context.  

First, Talent has out-spent McCaskill 10-1 in ads over the past six weeks, spending $2 milllion to her $200,000.  Thus, his tie comes after a lot of his ads.  

Second, the DSCC is about the start spending some of the $6 million it has earmarked for McCaskill's race.  http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/st ories.nsf/stlouiscitycounty/story/EACB1B 92348D171D862571DD005E2850?OpenDocument  That can only help.  

Talent always has had a big financial edge.  Hopefully, from here on in, overall spending can be closer to parity.  I expect this race to be too close to call down to the wire.  


John McCain Opposed Expanded GI Bill
by hilltopper on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 07:16:36 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

You mean I don't have to patronize those Nazis at RealClearPolitics anymore? Great!


by Bush Bites on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 08:09:38 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

I dunno how I feel about 5-poll averages.  In some states, the last five polls could conceivably be all in the window of the last two or three weeks.  For other states, you might see 5 polls taken in the last two months.  So when you look "across the board", you don't really get an accurate picture.

But, oh well, cool resource regardless.


Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country
by HellofaSandwich on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 08:12:57 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

Not all of us are insiders.  I wish you would post the party affiliations of people when you discuss these races.


by steve expat on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 09:13:03 PM EST

Re: Pollster.com (none / 0)

I enjoy reading your comments on these close or winnable races across the country.  However, I haven't seen any comments about our District 1 house race here in Oklahoma.  We think that Alan Gentges has a good chance to win over John Sullivan as Sullivan is not well liked here and is almost unknown by his peers in the House of Representatives.  Just wanted to let everyone know that Oklahoma isn't completely red and we are hopeful of changing a few seats in the upcoming election.


by ojamo on Mon Sep 04, 2006 at 03:30:59 PM EST


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