Despite asking some ridiculously slanted questions ("It's just crazy to announce to the enemy when you are going to stop fighting and leave the country" vs. "It's smart to let the Iraqis know a certain date when they need to be able to stand on their own"), the latest Opinion Dynamics poll (.pdf) commissioned by Fox News brings forward some fairly interesting information on the state of the race for Congress this year.
The Opinion Dynamics survey, which was in the field on Tuesday and Wednesday during the thick of administration speeches on the Iraq War and terrorism, found no bump, whatsoever, in the salience of terrorism as an issue this year. In fact, just 12 percent of voters believe it "will be the most important in deciding [their] vote for Congress this fall," behind the economy and Iraq, and only one point ahead of healthcare. These numbers seriously call into question the effectiveness of Karl Rove's strategy to wage this midterm campaign almost solely on security issues.
Other data from the poll also show that the Republican effort to paint Democrats as devoid of ideas and solely out to get the President has largely fallen on deaf ears. By a 47 percent to 30 percent margin, voters believe that should Democrats gain control of congress they will push new ideas rather than just trying to impeach President Bush. The margin among independent voters is even larger, 48 percent to 23 percent.
According to the poll, President Bush's approval rating sits at 38 percent with 56 percent disapproving, and on the generic congressional ballot question, Democrats hold a 16-point advantage, 48 percent to 32 percent. It's interesting to note that, with the exception of two outlying polls (one from Gallup, the other from CNN), Republicans have been unable to top 42 percent in any generic congressional ballot survey since February, and even with those outlying polls they haven't gotten over 45 percent since pollsters began widely asking the question last fall (source: PollingReport.com). While these numbers do necessarily not spell imminent doom for the Republicans' chances this fall, they do indicate that the Republicans have a ton of work cut out for them if they intend to hold even one chamber of Congress next year.
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