Bush Still in Doldrums According to New Opinion Dynamics Poll

Despite asking some ridiculously slanted questions ("It's just crazy to announce to the enemy when you are going to stop fighting and leave the country" vs. "It's smart to let the Iraqis know a certain date when they need to be able to stand on their own"), the latest Opinion Dynamics poll (.pdf) commissioned by Fox News brings forward some fairly interesting information on the state of the race for Congress this year.

The Opinion Dynamics survey, which was in the field on Tuesday and Wednesday during the thick of administration speeches on the Iraq War and terrorism, found no bump, whatsoever, in the salience of terrorism as an issue this year. In fact, just 12 percent of voters believe it "will be the most important in deciding [their] vote for Congress this fall," behind the economy and Iraq, and only one point ahead of healthcare. These numbers seriously call into question the effectiveness of Karl Rove's strategy to wage this midterm campaign almost solely on security issues.

Other data from the poll also show that the Republican effort to paint Democrats as devoid of ideas and solely out to get the President has largely fallen on deaf ears. By a 47 percent to 30 percent margin, voters believe that should Democrats gain control of congress they will push new ideas rather than just trying to impeach President Bush. The margin among independent voters is even larger, 48 percent to 23 percent.

According to the poll, President Bush's approval rating sits at 38 percent with 56 percent disapproving, and on the generic congressional ballot question, Democrats hold a 16-point advantage, 48 percent to 32 percent. It's interesting to note that, with the exception of two outlying polls (one from Gallup, the other from CNN), Republicans have been unable to top 42 percent in any generic congressional ballot survey since February, and even with those outlying polls they haven't gotten over 45 percent since pollsters began widely asking the question last fall (source: PollingReport.com). While these numbers do necessarily not spell imminent doom for the Republicans' chances this fall, they do indicate that the Republicans have a ton of work cut out for them if they intend to hold even one chamber of Congress next year.



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Is it still the economy, stupid? (none / 0)

I looked at that PDF carefully a couple of days ago. You left out by far the most important aspect: we're morons if we don't put more emphasis on the economy.

It indicates the economy is at its highest point of significance all year, with 23% identifying the economy as the most important issue to determine their vote for congress. The gap between the economy and Iraq is now 9% (23-14), previously not greater than 3%. The economy has been listed as the top issue in the FOX polling all year, but it was never higher than 20% until the August survey.

For some reason there is no party breakdown in the PDF, but the article (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,2115 61,00.html) indicates, " For Democrats, the top issues are the economy (26 percent) and Iraq (17 percent). Republicans pick terrorism (22 percent) and the economy (19 percent), with only a few citing Iraq as the main issue deciding their vote (7 percent)."

And here's something I've taken note of this year. When surveys ask questions like, "What issue is most important for politicians to concentrate on right now?" or "What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?," the top two are generally Iraq and terrorism, with the economy or economy/jobs in third. However, if you ask it differently and more relevant to November, like "What will be the single most important issue in your vote for Congress this year....," the order switches and the economy is much higher, often on top, like in the FOX poll.

I guess we'd prefer to use subjective judgment instead of what the voters are telling us. Then we'll look back and wonder why the gains weren't as high as anticipated.

Also, the same poll has this overlooked nugget: a significant majority of respondents in all three categories -- Democrats, Republicans, Independents -- list "Problems in the United States" as "more important in deciding your vote for Congress this fall," as opposed to "Problems around the World." In fact, the numbers barely shift based on partisanship. Democrats prioritize problems in the United States 65-19, for Republicans it's 60-19, and most dramatic of all for Independents at 68-11.

What's wrong with holding Bush accountable for the economy? Yet in reviewing the commericals here and elsewhere, I'm not sure I've heard the word economy a single time from a Democratic candidate.

I guess screaming about Iraq makes us feel tougher and meaner, more like Republicans. Meanwhile, our fate is determined by women and studies always indicate women are much more concerned than men with issues like health care, economy and jobs, and education. Bundle those together and they far exceed concern about Iraq. But is that how we're playing it? Not from what I can sense. The unmarried women stopped showing up at the polls after '92, declining every cycle for a decade, when they decided their issues weren't being addressed.  And every recent poll I've seen indicates women have a much lower opinion of the economy than men, in fact more than 10 points lower in a Los Angeles Times poll from June.

I'm not saying de-emphasize Iraq. But put some focus on the damn economy.

The CA-50 study from MyDD indicated Francine Busby failed in the special election largely because independents didn't turn out, in fact "independents barely showed up at all." In a Newsweek poll from August 10-11, which was the exact point of the London revelations and should have provided terrorism and probably Iraq with their highest numbers, independents chose the economy as the top vote-determining priority at 22%, with Iraq next at 19% and terrorism well back at 12%.

If independents think the economy is the most important issue yet we don't talk about the economy, how can we complain if independents again fail to show up and vote for the Democrat in November?


by jagakid on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 02:56:10 AM EST

Re: Is it still the economy, stupid? (none / 0)

I agree.

Democrats should be talking about how the money and effort going into The Idiot's vanity project in Iraq could be used here for:

Health care...a problem that can sink our economy

Energise America...another problem, solvable, that can sink our economy

Iraq, GWPT, the obscene 49% of the budget spent on defense...

These are all part of the narrative of the Republican Party: The Party of Hate, Death and Greed.

By connecting these dots we can turn this election into a first step towards creating a progressive America.

It's essential to drive the Republicans into the sea and keep them there until they either change of drown.


by Pericles on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 11:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is it still the economy, stupid? (none / 0)

Good points.  The Dems do need to be coherent on Iraq, but a winning point IMHO is the theme that Dems "care about peopple like you" and "will fight for your concerns not the special interests."  Poll after poll has shown that people understand that the GOP favors the rich.  they need to hear that the Dems care about the other 95%.


by Mimikatz on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 01:56:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush Still in Doldrums According to New Opinio (none / 0)

All of these things are tightly interconnected. If we leave Iraq, the price of oil might jump to $50 a barrel. If we stay, It'll cost about $100,000,000,000 dollars a year. Plus, every nation on the planet is grasping for nuclear bombs. Plus, we are running out of fresh water. Plus, the whole world is using much more coal, belching out more sulfur and mercury. Plus, the fish are all disappearing. Plus, all our industries are belong to China now. Plus, etc., etc., etc.

Look. Nobody gives a damn about real terrorists. They could only take out a block or so at a time. THEY ARE MERELY METAPHORIC BOGEYMEN FOR THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF THAT IS FAST APPROACHING.


by blues on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 09:16:59 AM EST

Hey Blues! (none / 0)

It's Labor Day Weekend and not even noon and I have already had a red beer (or three), but I hope there is something deeply ironic that I am just missing in "the price of oil might jump to $50 a barrel". Or you might need to be drinking a lot more or a lot less. Cause I linked to CNN two seconds ago and oil was trading a fraction under $70 a barrel..
http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/in dex.html

Bore da!


PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls
by Bruce Webb on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 01:57:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey Blues! (none / 0)

Thank you Bruce Webb! "Deeply ironic" is easily the most diplomatic description that has ever been applied to my ravings.


by blues on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 06:20:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey Blues! (none / 0)

how can it be bore da?
with prices like that, our valley is black, man.
by greenbird on Sun Sep 03, 2006 at 10:10:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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