MyDD :: FL-16: GOP Rep. Foley <s>Considers</s> Resigns in Face of Scandal

FL-16: GOP Rep. Foley Considers Resigns in Face of Scandal

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:10:40 PM EST

Update (Chris): Foley resigns. This is a huge opportunity for Democrats in FL-16. Tim Mahoney is the Democratic candidate. I am hearing conflicitng information as to whether or not Floey can be replaced on the ballot. If not, that is yet one more House seat Democrats have picked up.

Update 2 (Jonathan): Netroots legal expert Adam B explains in the comments,

My first take? Under Section 100.111(4)(a) of the Florida election code, Foley can be replaced as the nominee, but his name remains on the physical ballot.
And, obvs, any new nominee would have to fundraise from scratch.

Update 3 (Chris): Tim Mahoney has $343K cash as of 8/16. The district has a partisan voting index of +2.4 Republican. Even as an open seat, this district now favors Mahoney. If Adam B is right, Foley can't be removed fromt he ballot, which would end the race today.

Update 4: In the comments, Jonathan seems to have it now:

No, if I'm reading it correctly, the ballot remains unchanged (i.e. Foley v. Mahoney) but all Foley votes go to the annointed GOP replacement. If this is the case, it would be extremely difficult to get a majority to vote for Foley, even if the votes actually were goin got someone else.

Adam B concurs. This seat is now "lean Dem."

Original post:

Breaking news from the AP's David Espo:

Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., is considering resigning from the House in the wake of questions about e-mails he wrote to a former Capitol page, congressional officials said Friday.

These officials said a decision appeared imminent.

The Los Angeles Times' Noam N. Levey has more on the back story.

Six-term Rep. Mark Foley, a member of the powerful Ways and Means Committee and chairman of the House Entertainment Industry Task Force, is being made to explain a series of e-mails he sent in 2005 in which he asked the page how old he was and requested a photo.

The e-mails, copies of which were obtained by The Times, indicate that the boy, 16, then complained to another congressional staff member, noting: "Maybe it is just me being paranoid, but seriously. This freaked me out."

Florida's 16th congressional district, which Foley currently represents, is potentially competitive, with George W. Bush having won 55 percent of the district's vote in 2004 and just 52 percent in 2000. The Democratic candidate in the district, Tim Mahoney, is fairly well funded, with almost $350,000 in the bank as of the middle of August. So if Foley does resign and can be replaced on the ballot (could someone with election law experience dig into Florida's statute?), this race will definitely become one that the Democrats should watch in the next few weeks -- and perhaps even win come November 7.

Tags: FL-16, Florida, House 2006, Mark Foley, Tim Mahoney (all tags)

Permalink :: 69 Comments :: Post a Comment

Will not run for re-election (none / 0)

So I just heard on the radio. Do we already have a winner?

"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"

by molly bloom on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:13:28 PM EST

Re: Will not run for re-election (none / 0)

I'd like to know about being replaced on the ballot. It seems like they'd have to scramble, but a new person might get just enough coverage to still win it for the GOP just from partisan voting advantage.

Melissa Hart is gone - thank you Chris Bowers

by surfbird007 on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:15:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

FL Election Law (3.00 / 3)

My first take? Under Section 100.111(4)(a) of the Florida election code, Foley can be replaced as the nominee, but his name remains on the physical ballot.

And, obvs, any new nominee would have to fundraise from scratch.

by Adam B on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:14:43 PM EST

Re: FL Election Law (none / 0)

Does that mean another Reublican would appear on the ballot alongside Foley?

by Chris Bowers on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:20:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Election Law (none / 0)

Yes, but any votes for Foley would count for the new Republican candidate, if I'm reading it correctly.

by BingoL on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:22:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Election Law (3.00 / 3)

The name of any person so designated shall be submitted to the Department of State within 7 days after notice to the chair in order that the person designated may have his or her name on the ballot of the ensuing general election. If the name of the new nominee is submitted after the certification of results of the preceding primary election, however, the ballots shall not be changed and the former party nominee's name will appear on the ballot.

Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.

by Jonathan Singer on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Election Law (none / 0)

What you said.

by Adam B on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Election Law (none / 0)

Wasn't Stork (running against Clay Shaw) replaced on the ballot in 2004?

I'm trying to find out but cannot remember.

"No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown

by auboy2006 on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nevermind (none / 0)

Nevermind, I found it. He was not replaced, but his votes went to someone else.

"No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown

by auboy2006 on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:51:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So Foley stays on the ballot, eh? (none / 0)

Here's another question.

It's usually unlawful to hand out election literature too close to polling stations on election day.

How far away would you have to be to distribute Megan's Law notices on Foley?

by Kagro X on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:48:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're mean. (none / 0)

The question is whether any of the ballot place laws apply to someone who remains on the ballot but is not a candidate.

by Adam B on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're mean. (none / 0)

Adam, you seem to be the go-to guy. Have the primary results been certified by the Secretary of State? Does it make any difference that Foley was unopposed in the Republican primary?

by Ron Thompson on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:56:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

THIS IS WHY WE CONTEST EVERY FUCKIN SEAT (3.00 / 3)

This is why you run someone in every seat.

One or two of these surprise scandal based resignations could tip the House.

And... since it FLA, what are the chances the GOP will get to replace him on the ballot??? HA! Pretty high.

Would you hire George W Bush to be YOUR latex salesman?

by jgkojak on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:15:46 PM EST

What if? (none / 0)

What if he gets more votes anyway? I mean, it happened to the late Mel Carnahan (although he was more popular than Foley is likely to be after this disclosure).

by David in NY on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:22:57 PM EST

Re: What if? (3.00 / 1)

Then his replacement is seated.

As I understand it (maybe I'm wrong), this is exactly like Mel Carnahan in Missouri.

Except, of course, while Carnahan's passing engendered sympathy, this will probably, well, not. Engender sympathy.

by brownsox on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:27:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if? (3.00 / 2)

Mel Carnahan was pretty much a superstar governor in Missouri. Mark Foley hit in little boys.

by KainIIIC on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:31:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if? (none / 0)

on*

by KainIIIC on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:32:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if? (3.00 / 1)

I'm proud to say that I voted for Mel in 2000. The other aspect of the race, however, was that John Ashcroft's campaign was very unsure about how to proceed campaigning against a dead man and, effectively, his grieving widow. Ashcroft backed off his negative campaign and fumbled the election. If I remember correctly, it was pretty close with Ashcroft often leading up until that point.

With all that said, it's pretty clear that the way to proceed with the campaign is to point out, with ever so much grace and tact, that Mark Foley is a raging pedophile.

by Reece on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:16:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if? (none / 0)

"With all that said, it's pretty clear that the way to proceed with the campaign is to point out, with ever so much grace and tact, that Mark Foley is a raging pedophile."

This is hysterical.

by BBigJ on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:10:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if? (none / 0)

Re: Carnahan. Actually, his widow was not nominated by the party and Gov Carnahan won the election in Nov 2000. His widow Sen Jean Carnahan was chosen by the governor (Holden) to replace him. This is significant because Jean had to run in the next election, 2002, and lost narrowly to Talent. Had she been elected in 2000, she would still be in office today and the Dems would have held 50 seats in the Senate after the 2002 elections.

by desmoulins on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if? (none / 0)

Bob Holden was State Treasurer at the time. It was Roger Wilson who was acting Governor (served as Lt. Governor obviously) who appointed Jean Carnahan to the Senate seat.

by BG on Sat Sep 30, 2006 at 04:22:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if? (none / 0)

Will never happen. Carnahan died tragically and got sympathy votes. No one is going to want to cast their vote next to the name of a possible child molester. If the information here is all correct -we win this seat.

by Cleveland John on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:33:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

hehe (3.00 / 1)

I will not be satisfied with the internet as a multimedia device until I get to hear the colorful language coming from Rove's mouth at the moment he heard this news.

by BBigJ on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:31:50 PM EST

ConWis Formation (3.00 / 1)

Hotline is basically calling this for the Dems and are now saying we need 14 for a majority.

by adamterando on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:34:17 PM EST

Re: ConWis Formation (none / 0)

Actually, with AZ-08 and TX-22, we only need 12.

by Chris Bowers on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i'm trying to remain cautiously optimistic... (none / 0)

and not count chickens before they are hatched and all... but god damn if i'm not getting really excited about this.

-C.

by neutron on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:46:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ConWis Formation (none / 0)

And we might be close to it only being 11 if things go right in OH-18. We'll see what the first indy poll says.

by adamterando on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:34:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HA HA (none / 0)

And how much do you think we'll hear about this one in the MSM. I'd guess not as much as we heard about Gary Condit.

Would you hire George W Bush to be YOUR latex salesman?

by jgkojak on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:35:22 PM EST

Well, After All, It's In Shark Attack Country.. (none / 0)

Look! Over there!

by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:11:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Foley Resignation (none / 0)

A while back there was a post about how nasty Republicans can be in campaigning. The comments I recall ran towards the notion that Dems needed to be prepared to be just as nasty. This may be a chance to be nasty (if necessary).

After all, if things are as Adam suggests and Foley's name has to stay on the ballot, for the Republicans to win, they have to get enough people to vote for an alleged attempted pedophile. If they are going to push the button for him they should be reminded what he did.

by comotion on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:36:38 PM EST

Re: Foley Resignation (none / 0)

If House Dems wanted to hit hard, they should move a privileged resolution expelling him today.

Don't let him "Cut and Run!"

by Kagro X on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Foley Resignation (none / 0)

You've already won the game. No need to run up the score.

by BBigJ on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:10:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Foley Resignation (none / 0)

"Think of the children!"

by Kagro X on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Foley Resignation (none / 0)

yep, that's why I added the parenthetical "if necessary".

by comotion on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Foley Resignation (none / 0)

But there's always a need to run up the score.

by Kagro X on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:41:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If the GOP and Rove are playing defense (none / 0)

then they ain't on the offense.

"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"

by molly bloom on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Foley Resignation (none / 0)

No, in fact the partisan advantage is to let him stick around. That way he stays in the background, like a moldy banana.

by Dan Hartung on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 10:20:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL-16: GOP Rep. Foley Resigns (none / 0)

Guaranteed there is worse than these emails about to come out. Ney pled guilty to a felony and didn't resign...

I'm guessing this was not the first and only page...

1 down, 14 to go!

by Professor Foland on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:37:38 PM EST

Re: FL-16: GOP Rep. Foley Resigns (3.00 / 1)

CREW had the emails on their site, but it appears to be overloaded. Must have been Lamont.

Check out Calitics, the progressive Community blog for California.

by utbrian on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Court TV and the legal shows (none / 0)

will probably be covering this as well.

This is made for sleazy and serious TV: Chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children resigning because of inappropriate relationship with underage boys.

This is the sort of sensational thing (that needs no sensationalizing) that gets wide play... more so than the run-of-the-mill political corruption scandal.

FYI, Mahoney is wealthy and could self-fund. The GOP may look for a self-funder to compete.

by Newsie8200 on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:44:10 PM EST

Sounds like the catholic church all over again (3.00 / 1)

from a friend/colleague who works on sexual abuse prevention issues:

"Often, appearing to work on behalf of children is the best cover."

So a heads up and warning to every one with children, nieces and nephews.

by northcountry on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:55:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

this will (none / 0)

change the news cycle for a day, eh?

A Congressional seat here, a congressional seat there, pretty soon we're talking...real numbers.

k/o: politics and local blogs

by kid oakland on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:56:31 PM EST

So, What If It Turns Out Burns Is An Arsonist? (none / 0)

Just sayin. You know.

If poetic justice were to escalate from the House to the Senate, this would be the perfect manifestation, after his badmouthing of firefighters.

Plus, he's got the perfect name for it.

by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

more on this story - AIM (none / 0)

From ABC's blog:

Hours earlier, ABC News had read excerpts of instant messages provided by former male pages who said the congressman, under the AOL Instant Messenger screen name Maf54, made repeated references to sexual organs and acts.

by Jeffrey Feldman on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:00:23 PM EST

Al Gore's Secret Weapon Strikes Again! (none / 0)

Oh, those cruel, cruel internets!

by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:30:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Al Gore's Secret Weapon Strikes Again! (none / 0)

Cruel indeed. I'm no lawyer, but I am fairly sure that talking about sexual acts with a minor on AIM warrants attempted rape charges. When I served on Grand Jury duty we heard a bunch of these cases.

So much for Bush's big day of talking about the War on Tara--gotta make sure you've got your sexual predators in line before you can control the news cycle.

by Jeffrey Feldman on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:35:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Triple Threat! (none / 0)

It's not just the sexual predators. The Allen racism story got another boost, as a formerly anonymous source has come out into the open, with added details, and there's more revelations about Abramaoff connections to the WH via Rove and Mehlman.

Now, that's the sort of moral context we want for a discussion of the pro-torture GOP.

by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 07:24:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HOUSE FORCAST (3.00 / 1)

NEED ANOTHER UPDATE :)

by del on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:12:32 PM EST

Resigns in Face of Scandal (3.00 / 1)

Kojak makes a good point in this thread above. Howard Dean's 50-state strategy pays off in situations like this. You can't win nothin' if you don't have a candidate in the race....

by global yokel on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:17:21 PM EST

Put him in Jail. (none / 0)

I really love this. The high priests of morality and religious values take off their masks, and, guess what! they're evil fucks.

This dude was the chairman for the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, for Christ's sake. Maybe he missed the point of the caucus--maybe no one told him that it wasn't about how to make children disappear or how to exploit them.

I hope the DA in DC prosecutes him, and he enjoys some prison time. People who prey on children don't do it just once or twice, and this isn't just hitting on a coworker.

by Reece on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:25:00 PM EST

yeah that kind of skeeves me out too... (none / 0)

the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children?
yipe.

Makes me wonder if it isn't the wolf guarding the henhouse.

but I will say this, good on him for resigning with honor rather then trying to play it out.

I can only guess that this is indicitive of some more major stuff that would have eventually came out and buried him... I can only guess that because i'm a cynical bastard.

but still good on him for doing the right thing.

-C.

by neutron on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL-16: GOP Rep. Foley Resigns (none / 0)

Chris,
Does this move FL-16 to Tier 0 in your House Forecast, and therefore change the prediction to 18-24?

Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.

by Fran for Dean on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:27:55 PM EST

What's that famous saying? (none / 0)

something about a dead girl or a live boy....

Vote for a true progressive in November: Cynthia McKinney (GRN) for President!

by brooklyngreenie on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:40:22 PM EST

Re: What's that famous saying? (none / 0)

It's supposed to be a joke - that some congressmen are safe for re-election unless they fail the live boy / dead girl test. Rep. Condit failed the dead girl test; Foley failed the live boy test.

by CA Pol Junkie on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:15:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gov. Edwin Edwards of Louisiana (none / 0)

...claimed he could never be defeated except under those circumstances, but something about a riverboat casino, I think it was, got to him anyway.

by stevehigh on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:51:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

data? (none / 0)

Anyone know the demographics of the district?

One of my co-workers, who is from FL and cuban, said that her parents and grandparents would vote R even in this situation. It's gotta lean dem, but I'm not sure that I would call it a sure thing without some demographic break down showing what number of people there are hard "R"s

Quick census data:
about 640k people, 40k born in latin america. I would guess a significant number from Cuba.

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTG eoSearchByListServlet?ds_name=DEC_2000_1 09S&_lang=en&_ts=66293689812

But I really don't have a clue. :)

by dansomone on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 04:50:19 PM EST

Re: data? (none / 0)

dccc.org says Kerry got 46%. It sounds like a typical GOP gerrymandered district - just Republican enough to be hard for a Democrat to win against an incumbent or even as an open seat. Of course, it's Democratic enough that this scandal should push Mahoney over the top and he'll have a shot at holding the district as an incumbent in 2008.

by CA Pol Junkie on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:19:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: data? (none / 0)

It's conservative. Foley won 79% in 2002.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 06:19:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: data? (none / 0)

But Foley was not, in fact, very conservative. Classic case of a moderate Republican in a mixed district with an incumbency advantage.

Vote-Smart shows him pro-gun, anti-immigrant, but splitting the difference on abortion.

Up to this point I'd have thought he was basically a good guy, too.

Bottom line, I think this is winnable -- a toss-up or better.

by Dan Hartung on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 10:32:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: data? (none / 0)

There is more data on the district here:

5.8% African-American
10.1% Hispanic

2000 results with current boundaries: Bush 51.7% - 46.4% Gore

by CA Pol Junkie on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:36:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Replacements? (none / 0)

Who will the Republicans nominate? The only possible choices with the slightest of chances are known state legislators or very rich self-funder.

The 16th CD belongs mostly to the FL senate districts 17, 25, 27, 28 and 39. Senators for districts 27 and 39 are Democrats.
CQ calls Sen. Atwater (district 25) as possible replacement, but he lives in North Palm Beach, which I think is not located in the 16th CD.
Senator for the 17th district is Majority Whip JD Alexander, but he lives in Lake Wales (Polk County) - outside the 16th CD.

That leaves Senator Ken Pruitt (district 28) from Port St. Lucie, which should be in the 16th CD. Ken Pruitt has a 100% rating from FL Right to Life (1998), 93% from the FL Christian Coalition (2005/2006), 95% from the FL Chamber of Commerce (2006), 19% from the LCV (2004), A from the NRA (2002) and 44% from the FL AFL-CIO.

Atwater has a 97% rating from the FL chamber of Commerce, 100% from the FL Christian Coalition, 33% from the LCV, B from the NRA and 48% from the AFL-CIO.

Both sound pretty awful...

by micha1976 on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:27:26 PM EST

Good Lord (none / 0)

rotflmao

FYI

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_po litics/

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 05:54:36 PM EST

Go to the source (none / 0)

Instead of all this supposition on whether or not Foley can be replaced, just check with the experts at the Secretary of State's office who understand Florida Election law.

What? Oh. Right

Nevermind...

by ImaJoeBob on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 06:09:13 PM EST

Re: FL-16: GOP Rep. Foley Resigns (none / 0)

wow. you know, I'm not ususally one for schadenfreude, but damn, this really made my day a lot better.

by johnny longtorso on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 06:31:28 PM EST

Re: FL-16: GOP Rep. Foley (3.00 / 1)

ahahaha... now Mark Foley is officially a double-meaning "Chicken Hawk":

1. A Gay term for an older man that constantly chases after younger men typically in their 20's.

2. Someone who avoids going to war or fighting in his lifetime, but still advocates that the war is necessary.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.ph p?term=Chicken+Hawk

hahahaha

by KainIIIC on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 07:05:02 PM EST

Re: FL-16: GOP Rep. Foley Considers Resigns (none / 0)

The rumors about Foley being gay were pretty strong, but I'd never come across anything like this. This is just flat out disgusting.

Pelosi & Emanuel need to make damn sure that any Repub who took (or will take) Foley money is forced to make a public reckoning.

by blueflorida on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 07:45:23 PM EST

Torture Foley. It's Legal Now. (none / 0)

Another Republican "family-values" jackass shows his true colors. How many times have we seen this?

What is it about the Republican Party that attracts such sickening, craven dirtbags to its ranks?

Wish it had been Santorum. But who knows, it might still be...

by Master Jack on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 07:47:40 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

And Jim Davis and the Florida Democratic Party need to re-christen the Florida GOP as the Katherine Harris-Mark Foley Republican Party.

by blueflorida on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 08:03:49 PM EST

Wait 'til Diebold helps him win (none / 0)

Then the GOP will have to explain how a sex offender won in the South.

It's fair to assume they'll offer up that this guy Mahoney was weak on defense and lost the values vote.

by jcjcjc on Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 11:10:50 PM EST

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