Taking the House is far from a guarantee. However, we have put over forty Republican-held seats in serious play. Right now, even before the time period when most unknown challengers make up a lot of ground on well-known incumbents, we are already winning in enough districts to take the House. This is far, far superior to any position we have been in since 1994. In fact, there are a growing number of Republican-held House seats where the most recent independent poll of the district shows a Democratic lead:
- CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 54%--37% O'Donnell (R) (Survey USA, September 25)
- IN-08: Ellsworth (D) 47%--32% Hostettler (R) (Evansville Courier and Press, September 21, 2006)
- AZ-08: Giffords (D) 48%--36% Graf (R) (Arizona Daily Star, September 19)
- IN-09: Hill (D) 53%--42% Sodrel (R) (Constituent Dynamics, September 10)
- VA-02 Kellam (D) 51%--43% Drake (R) (Constituent Dynamics, August 29th)
- IN-02: Donnelly (D) 50%--42% Chocola (R) (Research 2000, September 15th)
- PA-10: Carney (D) 50%--43% Sherwood (R) (Constituent Dynamics, August 29th)
- IA-01: Braley (D) 44%--37% Whalen (R)(Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, September 13th)
- CT-02: Courtney (D) 51%--45% Simmons (R) (Constituent Dynamics, August 29)
- PA-06: Murphy (D) 50%--45% Gerlach (R) (Constituent Dynamics, August 29)
- KY-04: Lucas (D) 48%--44% Davis (R) (Survey USA, September 18th)
- NC-11: Shuler (D) 50%--47% Taylor (R) (Constiuent Dynamics, August 29)
- WA-08: Burner (D) 49%--46% Reichert (R) (Constiuent Dynamics, August 29)
- IL-06: Dcukworth (D) 47%--46% Roskam (R) (Constiuent Dynamics, August 29)
That comes to fourteen districts where the most recent non-partisan poll has a Democrat ahead in a Republican-held district. There has not been a poll in TX-22 since DeLay was forced to stay on the ballot.. There are also the following Republican-held districts where the only polls released have been internal and / or partisan Democratic polls, but what has been released shows Democrats either ahead or tied:
That is another five polls, so now we are up to 19 + TX-22. Further, there are also seats where internal polls have shown Democrats in the lead or tied, and other polling, either independent or Republican internal, shows conflicting information.
Now we're up to 21 + TX-22. Finally, there are also seats where polls, either internal or otherwise, show Democrats close, and no polls show Republican blowouts:
- KY-03: Northup (R) 47%--46% Yarmuth (D) (Internal poll, June 22)
- CA-04: Doolittle (R) 41%--39% Brown (D) (Internal, August 31)
- NV-02: Heller (R) 45%--42% Derby (D) (Mason-Dixon,.September 21)
- OH-02: Schmidt (R) 45%--42% Wulsin (D) (Survey USA, September 20)
- OH-15: Pryce (R) 44%--41% Kilroy (D) (Internal, late March)
- CO-04: Musgrave (R) 46%--42% Paccione (D) (Survey USA, September 20th)
- NY-25: Walsh (R) 44%--40% Maffei (D) (Internal poll, September 21)
- NM-01: Wilson 51%--46% Madrid (Survey USA, September 20)
- NY-19: Kelley (R) 49%--44% Hall (D) (Internal poll, September 17th).
- CT-05: Johnson (R) 49%--44% Murphy (D) (Democracy Corps PDF, August 15)
- NC-08: Hayes (R) 46%--40% Kissell (D) (Internal, August 13)
- CT-02: Shays (R) 49%--42% Farrell (D) (Constiuent Dynamics, August 29)
- FL-22: Shaw (R) 52%--44% Klein (D) (Constiuent Dynamics, August 29)
- PA-08: Fitzpatrick (R) 53%--45% Murphy (D) (Constiuent Dynamics, August 29)
And that brings us to a grand total of 35 districts. Overall, Democrats lead in twenty congressional districts. One district is tied, and Democrats are within striking distance in at least thirteen more. I did not even include polls here form KS-02 and ID-01, both of which show Democrats winning, because I am highly suspicious of both polls. TX-22, a sure Democratic pickup, was also not included because no polls have been released for the district. There are also several more Republican held seats not shown here that have shown strong signs of competitiveness: MN-06, AZ-05, NH-02, NV-03, NY-20 and PA-07 all immediately come to mind.
I wanted to write this post for all you pessimists out there who still think the odds are against Democrats when it comes to retaking the House. Clearly, current evidence indicates otherwise.
