Governor Forecast 2006: Massachusetts and Colorado Moving Even Closer to the Dems

Like our last update, the latest changes to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 show some movement within races but not significant changes in the overall outlook, with Democrats still favored to pick-up a net six governorships.

Democratic gubernatorial candidates Deval Patrick of Massachusetts and Bill Ritter of Colorado appear to be pulling away these days, with Patrick in particular potentially taking his race completely off of the table (a la Eliot Spitzer in New York). The number of Republican-held seats currently listed "toss-up" or better for the Democrats now stands at eight -- more than the number of Democratic-held seats that are even potentially in play this year.

Yet just as Democratic chances overall are blossoming, individual Democratic Governors in Michigan, Maine, Wisconsin and, to an extent, Oregon are having real difficulties in their reelection campaigns. It is quite possible that one or more of these Democrats will lose this fall, though each of them is still favored at least slightly.

For more information and polling on all of the key races, visit the complete MyDD Governor Forecast 2006.

Update [2006-9-26 17:8:13 by Jonathan Singer]: Skeptical about Patrick's lead in Massachusetts? Rasmussen Reports pegs his lead at 57 percent to 24 percent. This race could still move around -- Patrick's post-primary bounce could diminish -- but if this lead can hold, this race will most definitely join New York in the "safe Democratic" category.



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WI GOV (none / 0)

News from the cheese state looks good today. Green was ordered in court to return his "illegal money" and now it appears that the State Elections Board may try to make him return 700,000 more. The polls look bad and I am not really confident he will win, but this news is very good. Anything that makes it harder for Green to win has gotta be good for Doyle.


Jeremy Bentham sucks!!
by Forward with Feingold on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 03:13:56 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Massachusetts and Colo (3.00 / 2)

Just one comment on the Florida governors race. You correctly mentioned that turnout in the Democratic primaries was very low. But I dont think that is representitive of what will be in November. First, most Florida democrats live in South Florida and it was absolutely pouring rain here the day of the primary. Traffic was miserable because of it. It was a real anomoly. Also, there were not many noticeable differences between the 2 democratic candidates- most democrats I spoke to didnt even care who won, but planned on voting for the nominee it November. I think Davis has a better shot than you give him credit for.


by mhoffa1382 on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 03:37:30 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Massachusetts and Colo (none / 0)

One note on the CA-Gov race.  The coalition of unions that I work for (Alliance for a Better California) is now back up on the air with two new ads.  These are by the same firm and feature many of the same teachers, nurses, cops and firefighters that were so effective last year against Arnold.  This is a serious ad buy and the reporter bloggers are all saying they will be effective.

Here are the YouTube versions of "In His Own Words" and "In the Eye".  Meanwhile, the field component is protesting at the Women's conference.


by juls on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 03:48:49 PM EST

MA-Gov (none / 0)

Democratic gubernatorial candidates Deval Patrick of Massachusetts and Bill Ritter of Colorado appear to be pulling away these days, with Patrick in particular potentially taking his race completely off of the table (a la Eliot Spitzer in New York).

I'd be delighted if Patrick's campaign managed that, but I'd also be surprised.  Granted, the last poll I saw had him way out ahead, but that was right after a very solid win in the primary.  I doubt very much that he'll keep that lead.

Failing a major blunder, I'm pretty sure he'll win -- his Repub opponent is running an uninspired campaign in a state that's pretty fed up with its current Repub Gov -- but I don't think it'll be a blowout.


by Bearpaw on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 04:03:04 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Mass and Color Moving (3.00 / 2)

One overlooked fact about winning the Governor's races is the potential for helping House, Senate and down-ballot races by not only demanding a fair election, but pledging to follow through on complaints.  With a Dem Governor to investigate election irregularities in OH and other states, perhaps there will be less incentive to engage in them.  Blackwell knew he had nothing to fear, both being Sec of State and having a GOP Governor.  This time around he has to know that there will be no one covering for him.  Even Schmidt's race could be investigated this time.  And with the Dems on the brink of taking Congress, GOP House candidates can't count on being in the majority when there is a question of who to seat in a contested election.  

Just a little side benefit, but a real one nonetheless.


by Mimikatz on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 04:13:26 PM EST

Re: Mass Gov. Deval Patrick (none / 0)

The biggest hurdle Deval Patrick faces is the fact that his opponent is a self-funded multimillionaire. I know the netroots have many pressing races to fund, but I hope Deval Patrick will not be overlooked just because the poll numbers look good now.


by Emmett Finocche on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 06:10:54 PM EST


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