The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th edition

Anonymous MyDD commenter addressing me, July 21, 2004:
Let's take NY's 25th, were I also grew up, for example. The Democrats did have a candidate, but he dropped out right after he was nominated. Then someone offered to run, but he/she is infact a crossdresser. Finally two days before petitions were due, someone else volunteered to run, but did not have enough signatures by the filing deadline. Now even so, oh great recruiter and knower of all districts, please tell me who in NY 25th that the Democrats could even have recruited to run a competitive race against Jim Walsh?
Latest poll on NY-25, September 25, 2006: (July results in parenthesis)

Walsh (R): 44% (52%)
Maffei (D): 40% (23%)

Yes, it is an internal poll. However, we haven't seen anything from Walsh when it comes to polling, and this poll was conducted as a straight trial heat--no message testing. I can tell you, as much as I love my new home in Philadelphia, there is a large part of me that wants to be back in Liverpool, New York right now, knocking on doors for Dan Maffei. Autumn is beautiful up there. You can already see your breath at night, but as the leaves crinkle under your feet, and as you distinctly smell leaves burning in the distance, you just don't care. Just let me knock on another door. When we are done with that door, I'll beg you to let me knock on another. I promise to buy the first round at Clark's if you just keep knocking on doors with me for another half an hour. Enough with the charade that Central New York is supposedly Republican territory. Enough with the lie that has become Jim Walsh's "moderate" label. This is our chance--our first good chance in ten years to retake the 25th. Let's not waste it now.

I don't know every district, and I don't claim to. That anonymous poster wasn't the only insider who chided me for demanding a more wide-ranging, contest every seat, fifty-state strategy either. All I know is that those people will never know the joy of contesting every seat. I know that Jim Walsh is dropping like a rock, and Dan Maffei is rising fast. I know that this district has a PVI of Democratic + 3.4, making it the 11th most Democratic district held by a Republican in the country. I know that Walsh, who once was a "moderate," hasn't voted against the Republican leadership on almost anything since he won his seat on the appropriations committee, and thus the conservative movement swept into my hometown without anyone even noticing. I know what it is like to walk around and knock on doors in Onondaga County in the fall. I know that this seat is very winnable, and almost every sign of a national wave is starting to appear clearly on the horizon. I know that in 2004 Democrats didn't even bother to contest the NY-25th, but now that I know many are starting to experience the joy of contesting every seat.

I wish that we could have added every Democrat running for congress to the netroots page, because I know hat around the country a lot of people are starting to see their district the way NY-25 now looks. We can actually win, and we can even win in a lot of surprising places that we didn't think were even going to be competitive. Maybe we won't win everywhere when it is all over, but we will have changed the way people look at this district for a long time. Democrats can compete here too.

I wish we could have endorsed every candidate, but we can't. I think we have a lot of good choices, and please, contribute today. More importantly, find a Democratic campaign in your area, and get out there and go to work for that campaign. Experience the joy of contesting every seat. A wave is building, and we can ride this one a long way. As Senator Feingold said in his speech today, let's not just win on November 7th, but win in a way that will keep us in power for years, if not decades, to come.

P.S. Rochester Turning is becoming an exceptionally good blog on Upstate New York politics. In the 25th itself, you can't miss The Walsh Watch.



Display:


Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th edit (3.00 / 1)

Thanks for the shout out, Chris, for RochesterTurning.  MyDD has done more for the little guys like us than anyone else has.  And we certainly appreciate all of it!


by Pogues Fan on Mon Sep 25, 2006 at 09:23:40 PM EST

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th (3.00 / 1)

around 34% of all ballots cast in NY-25 were blank in 2004.

Even against a third party candidate and no Democrat, Walsh got 60%.

Oh yeah, Kerry won NY-25, Gore won NY-25.


by RBH on Mon Sep 25, 2006 at 09:43:00 PM EST

Re: candidate shortage in the 25th (3.00 / 2)

May seem as if it's not exactly on topic but
the tie in comes at the end..

In Nov 2004 the commentariat mantra was
was that the democrats lost  "at every level" .

Not exactly.

A week or so afterwards , CSPAN covered a conference of state legislators whose executive director announced that overall the dems had picked up enough seats nationwide to swing from a small minority to a small majority.

When an NPR news host made the "loss at every level " comment I emailed its political editor
with those numbers who responded , agreeing  that I was right and in fact providing slightly revised figures , with a slightly wider gain.

I'll be curious to see whether Dean's 50 state
philosophy translates into further gains at that level. If nothing else that might help avoid situations where there seems to be no natural candidate at the Congressional level.


by flavius on Mon Sep 25, 2006 at 09:52:48 PM EST

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th edit (3.00 / 3)

Dan Maffei's campaign is doing a great job; I think he's going to win. They're good people in that campaign, too ...

In fact, I'd say Maffei has a better shot than Gillibrand by a pretty good margin. As does Massa, imo.

There's a whole lot of movement in CNY and northern NY right now. It's subterranean, but we've done some internal looks at the electorate, and there's just a whole lot of "persuadables" among populations previously solid R and a strong anti-incumbent feeling ... and the Spitzer effect shouldn't be overlooked. Not just in GOTV, but he imparts a certain attitude to the "D" label that's perfect for the time. Reform-oriented, active ... he's a force to be reckoned with.


by BriVT on Mon Sep 25, 2006 at 10:35:40 PM EST

Contesting [nearly] every seat a GOP nightmare (3.00 / 4)

What they want is a big battalions set-piece battle like Busby in SoCal.

Every little long-shot race against an incumbent will send said incumbent to the leadership with tears running down his face, begging, threatening, and finally getting cash. It doesn't matter what the pros on the campaign staff say; the members rule.

So start fires everywhere; scare the piss out of people. Even a half a dozen freeway blogs when the GOP member drives back from the airport could leach money away from the more genuinely competitive races.

And BESIDES, some longshots always win and some favorites always lose.

I wouldn't be overconfident in your handicapping. It's obvious the Netroots missed one in Maryland last week. Who the hell knew? The truth is, you never know. You don't think the Boy Wonder woke up surprised after the NH Primary? He had to notice John McCain blew Bush to hell by a margin that nobody expected.

I believe the money targeting should exclude (without further comment) the Democrats you don't like, and include everybody else who's running a hard, precinct-walking campaign. Any candidate who's willing to get off his lazy ass and ask the voters to vote for him deserves a few bucks.

It's in our power to give Rove the worst kind of Grand Klong constipation.

All it takes:

1. Stop bad-mouthing Democrats and bad-mouth Republicans instead.

2. Work harder than they do.

--steve


by stevehigh on Mon Sep 25, 2006 at 10:46:43 PM EST

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th (3.00 / 2)

Ny-25 is very winnable.

And Chris is right it is beautiful country.

NY-20 is very winnable.

NY-19 is very winnable.

NY-24 is very winnable.

I don't know the others well enough to know for sure. What I do know is that there are 9 Republican held seats in NY and there isn't one of them that is a lock for a Republican if the right candidate has the right amount of money and the right number of people on the ground working their tails off to make it happen.

I'm sure this is true of most states and districts to one degree or another.

If you aren't involved where you are then why not?

If not now, when? If not you, who?


The 10,000 Things
by Andrew C White on Mon Sep 25, 2006 at 11:01:57 PM EST

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th (3.00 / 4)

Don't forget NY-29!  Eric Massa is giving Randy Kuhl the race of his life.  When Cheney whipped through for 1.5 hours last week to fundraise for Kuhl, Massa got the majority of the good press. His campaign seems to be internalizing the 50 state strategy into an 8 county strategy, even in very rural and red counties in the southern tier.  


by bythepeople on Mon Sep 25, 2006 at 11:27:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th (3.00 / 2)

massa also has an internal poll showing a tie.  And cheney was supposed to raise $175K but only pulled in $87K for Kuhl.


by democracyinalbany on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 09:30:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th edit (3.00 / 1)

And don't forget fighting29th.com

They do a great job of covering the 29th.  


by Pogues Fan on Mon Sep 25, 2006 at 11:42:15 PM EST

The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, Texas Edition (3.00 / 2)

Dunno how viable a candidate history professor Glenn Melancon is against Ralph Hall (R-TX), but given that Hall publicly ridiculed, apparently at Abramoff's behest, the well-documented claim of a 15 year old girl that she'd been abducted from the Philippines to serve as a sex slave in the Northern Marianas Islands, we may only need someone who can appear in public and not drool all over himself.

Crazy stuff is going to happen like this all the time - especially when the majority party is as comfortable in its corruption as this one is - but in order to take advantage of it when it happens, we've got to, at a bare minimum, have a name on the ballot in the Dem column.

Fifty states.  Every district.  Because you never know when and where opportunity's going to practically bust your door down.


by RT on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 05:58:57 AM EST

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th edit (none / 0)

I have supported the campaign since announced this spring. Work concentrated in Monroe and Onondaga although I have found wayne county active dems among volunteers. My town voted for Kerry ahead of Democrat registration in '04


NY 25 supporter Sodus Pt NY
by antifras on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 09:36:41 AM EST

Colorado 5th (3.00 / 1)

Contesting every seat is great. We make them spend more and we may win some suprises...such as CO-5, where Jay Fawcett is in striking distance of Doug Lamborn, choice of the christofascists. This is a reliably conservative district, where focus on the family is located. Lesson of 06, no matter what happens, is fight for every seat. Make the republicans work for it.


by protohiro on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 11:43:46 AM EST

=more money for Dems (none / 0)

How about this one...

Walsh's sure thing, which means he could have given $$ to other campaigns (whether statewide or nationally) means money Dems won't have to fight against in other places.  

Also... given that NY GOP is so destitute these days... I'll grant a 5pt bounce to any D over what a poll says.


Would you hire George W Bush to be YOUR latex salesman?
by jgkojak on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 11:54:20 AM EST

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat, NY-25th edit (none / 0)

I still find it a bit hard to believe, but the Republicans' stranglehold on Central New York might be coming to an end. It's a good thing.


Republicans are idiots. That's all you have to know.
by republicans are idiots on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 12:57:00 PM EST

Keep up the good Work (none / 0)

At the age of 24, I am finally becoming excited to be a Democrat.  That is damnation with the thinnest veil of praise, yet by god I actually am motivated to go knock on some doors.  Keep up the exuberance and i might become a believer.


Dissent is the purest form of democracy. -Thomas Jefferson (attributed)
by thirdeblue on Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 03:14:04 PM EST

How Disgusting is Chris Bower? (none / 0)

I just read how the editor of MYDD, Chris Bower has lowered himself to place an anonymous and disgusting bigoted comment on this site. Does Chris Bower really think that this helps the Democratic Party in any way?


by Truth Matters on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:07:26 PM EST

Re: The Joy Of Contesting Every Seat (none / 0)

I just want to say thank you for the update on the NY-25th race. I've been hearing rumblings for almost 2 years in Wayne County from usual GOP voters who are getting fed up and turning Dem. I'm really hoping western NY gets it's act together this time around. And I'm giving a shout out to the fellow Sodus Pointer! I grew up there :)  


by petal on Thu Oct 12, 2006 at 04:10:45 PM EST


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