In 2000, Al Gore managed to receive the support of just 37 percent of rural voters. In 2004, John Kerry performed slightly better within this demographic, scoring 40 percent support. A study conducted by Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg and Republican pollster Bill Greener for The Center for Rural Strategies, however, shows that the Democrats have a great opportunity this year to win significantly more rural votes this year than in years past, potentially swinging key congressional races in their favor.
The rural vote is up for grabs, according to a poll of rural voters in contested congressional and Senate races released today by the Center for Rural Strategies.And how well the parties do in rural America is likely to determine who controls Congress.
The poll of rural voters in 41 contested congressional districts with significant rural populations found Democratic and Republican candidates running a dead heat, with each party receiving 45 percent of the possible votes. In six contested Senate races in states with significant rural populations, rural voters favored Republican candidates 47 to 43 percent, but the gap falls within the poll's margin of error of 4.3 percentage points, making a statistical tie.
We are already seeing the effects of this new dynamic among rural voters playing out in a number of congressional races around the country. Currently, Democrats are competitive or potentially competitive in a number of mostly rural districts currently held by Republicans including: Arizona 1 (Renzi), Kentuck 2 (Lewis), Minnesota 1 (Gutknecht), New Hampshire 2 (Bass), New York 23 (McHugh), North Carolina 11 (Taylor), Ohio 18 (Ney), Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood), and Wyoming At-Large (Cubin). Democrats' chances in mixed districts -- those in which a majority of the population neither lives in urban, suburban or rural areas -- are potentially even better. For instance, independent polling released today from one such district, Indiana's 8th district, shows Democratic nominee Brad Ellsworth trouncing Republican incumbent John Hostettler by 15 points.
If the Democrats' position among rural voters holds and they can manage to garner 45 percent of the rural vote -- or more -- in key congressional races this year, it's difficult for me to imagine the Republicans maintaining control of the House in January 2007.
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